Ranking 49ers' 4 most vital 'must win' games over 2nd half of season
By Peter Panacy
With the first half of their 2024 complete, the 49ers have to circle these four remaining contests as must-win games.
We've seen it before, multiple times.
The San Francisco 49ers start off a season slow, then get hot around the halfway point and finish with a second-half surge to make the postseason. It happened in 2021 when they started off 3-5 but managed to make the NFC Championship game. Then, a year later, the Niners started 3-4 but didn't lose again until the NFC Championship the following January.
Halfway through their 2024 campaign, San Francisco owns a 4-4 record and heads into its bye in Week 9, setting up a chance to go on yet another second-half run that'll propel head coach Kyle Shanahan's squad up from the No. 10 spot in the NFC standings and into a playoff berth.
However, that involves winning a lot of games in the second half.
While essentially every week is vital, although no game is a "must win" unless it's an elimination affair, some games are easily more important than others.
Here are the ones in which the 49ers absolutely have to be victorious between Weeks 10 and 18.
No. 4: Week 12 @ Green Bay Packers
The Niners are already 0-1 against the NFC North this season, having lost to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 2. And it doesn't seem likely San Francisco will catch the surging 6-1 Detroit Lions in the battle for the No. 1 seed in the conference.
Winning the NFC West becomes the 49ers' next biggest priority, yes. But, should the Niners need to seize a Wild Card spot, there are a few battles that'll stand out.
None fewer than Week 12's road showdown against the 6-2 Green Bay Packers, who currently hold the fifth seed.
Related story: NFL tiebreaker rules: How ties are decided in the division, playoff standings
Playing in Green Bay in November opens up a slew of weather-related challenges, but there's also the serious possibility of both teams' vying for one of those three Wild Card berths. A head-to-head victory would ensure San Francisco has the better positioning, should both teams somehow end up with identical records once Week 18 concludes.
No. 3: Week 11 vs. Seattle Seahawks
The 49ers are already 1-0 over the Seattle Seahawks this season, the lone team Shanahan and Co. has beat in the NFC West thus far.
Currently second in the division, the Hawks could fall to last place if they end up losing an important Week 9 game to the 3-4 Los Angeles Rams, who could make the leap to the No. 2 spot in the NFC West if they pull off the victory.
The Niners will play close attention to that particular game's outcome.
However, stacking some in-division victories has to be on San Francisco's to-do list, and the next one it plays happens to be in Week 11 when the 49ers host the up-and-down Seahawks at Levi's Stadium.
Another victory will ensure the Niners finish ahead of Seattle in the standings, even if both teams end up boasting the same record by season's end.
No. 2: Week 15 vs. Los Angeles Rams
Unlike Week 11 against the Seahawks, San Francisco doesn't have the luxury of a win in hand against LA, having lost the previous affair back in Week 3 in devastating fashion.
Thankfully, Week 15's installment of Thursday Night Football gives the 49ers a chance for vengeance, and pulling off a win would make the season series against Los Angeles 1-1, ensuring the head-to-head matchup wouldn't be a tiebreaker in the standings.
As far as that's concerned, the Rams are currently in last place within the NFC West but could jump to second if they pull off a win in the aforementioned Week 9 tilt against the Hawks.
In an odd way, Niners fans may actually want to root for Seattle in that particular bout, as it would keep LA down in the NFC West, both in terms of standings and division record, making San Francisco's own Week 3 defeat not seem quite as bad.
That said, the best thing the 49ers can do here is simply handle their business against Los Angeles they the two teams face each other again.
No. 1: Week 18 @ Arizona Cardinals
If you've noticed, three of the four remaining "must win" games are within the NFC West.
That's for a reason.
If the Niners make the postseason, it'll likely have to come by the way of a division crown. Considering the NFC North boasts three teams in the current seeding, while the NFC East could easily send both the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles into the postseason, the race for a Wild Card spot could easily get too heated for San Francisco.
It also wouldn't come as a surprise if the NFC West's winner is determined on the final day of the regular season in Week 18.
The first-place Arizona Cardinals (feels weird to acknowlege that) also hold a victory in hand over the 49ers from Week 5, meaning a second loss to the red birds would be disastrous not only to the Niners' prospects for a division crown but also, potentially, in their record against the NFC West as a whole.
As is the case with the Rams, evening up the season series would remove that particular X-factor from the equation.
However, seeing how no team is running away with the NFC West lead right now, there's an awfully good chance Week 18 between Arizona and San Francisco could come down to a divisional "winner take all" matchup with a playoff berth hanging in the balance.
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