49ers predictions for 2024 NFL season: Division finish, number of wins, playoffs
By Peter Panacy
The 49ers have high expectations in 2024, but all signs suggest they should reach them, at least during the regular season.
San Francisco 49ers fans easily remember what happened the last time their favorite team followed up a Super Bowl loss.
Rewinding back to 2020, mere months after the Niners (first) lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl, head coach Kyle Shanahan's squad suffered an unprecedented rash of injuries, struggling to a 6-10 record and a last-place finish within the NFC West.
Granted, that down year preceded three consecutive trips to the NFC Championship game, culminating in yet another Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs in February of 2024.
However, it's fair to wonder if San Francisco will undergo yet another down year in the wake of what happened at the very end of last season, especially considering the many offseason headaches Shanahan and Co. had to deal with.
Expectations are nevertheless high. The current rendition of the 49ers roster remains chocked full of talent, taking advantage of quarterback Brock Purdy's awfully inexpensive contract. And while major changes are predicted in a year or two, the general consensus is for the Niners to be right back in Super Bowl contention this season.
So, with the 2024 regular season just around the corner, let's strike up some predictions about where San Francisco will land and how its campaign will finish.
Prediction No. 1: Where 49ers finish in NFC West
The NFC West is no longer the gauntlet it once was only a few short years ago. The Arizona Cardinals are still very much in rebuild mode, while the Seattle Seahawks are undergoing a massive change under first-year head coach Mike Macdonald.
Arguably, only the Los Angeles Rams present a legitimate threat to the 49ers' current reign as division champions.
The Niners went 5-1 in the NFC West last season, the only loss coming to LA in a meaningless Week 18 game in which Shanahan mostly deployed his backups.
Assuming injuries don't get in the way again, San Francisco should still pull off a division crown.
Predicting NFC West standings in 2024
- San Francisco 49ers
- Los Angeles Rams
- Seattle Seahawks
- Arizona Cardinals
Prediction No. 2: 49ers' win total for 2024
The 49ers went 12-5 a season ago, which included a three-game skid in which the team fell flat but still had opportunities to win at least two of those losses.
Matching that record again might be tough, especially with the rise of other NFC squads that'll face the Niners during the regular season, including the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. While San Francisco has a relatively middle-of-the-pack strength of schedule, there are some notably brutal parts of the docket of games, including Weeks 6 through 13.
The oddsmakers at FanDuel have the over/under for 49ers wins this season at 11.5, and the under is currently the favorite.
Let's predict 11 wins, a final regular-season record of 11-6.
Prediction No. 3: What happens to 49ers in the playoffs
Winning the Super Bowl is the Niners' sole objective in 2024, and the same oddsmakers give San Francisco an excellent chance of doing so, trailing only Kansas City in odds.
That said, history suggests the 49ers won't have the best chance of returning to the Super Bowl after losing it last season.
Most Super Bowl losers end up making the playoffs the following year. But, dating back to the start of the Super Bowl era, only three teams (1971 Dallas Cowboys, 1972 Miami Dolphins and 2018 New England Patriots) came back to win the Super Bowl a year after losing it.
Those are long chances.
The last team to lose back-to-back Super Bowls was the 1993 Buffalo Bills. So, by that data, even getting back to the big game after losing it is awfully difficult.
While it might be tough to swallow, a smart prediction might be for the Niners to fall short of their objective, not even getting to the Super Bowl this season but losing yet another heartbreaker in the NFC Championship game.
Let's hope San Francisco proves us and the history odds wrong.
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