With the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks each improving to 10-3 this past Sunday by way of blowout victories, the San Francisco 49ers were unable to gain any ground during their much-needed bye week and will enter Week 15 one game back of both at 9-4.
However, with the Chicago Bears now also sitting at 9-4 following their loss on Sunday to the Green Bay Packers, who took over first place in the NFC North, the Niners did bump up a spot in the overall NFC playoff picture, moving from No. 7 to No. 6 due to winning a tiebreaker with the Bears by having a better record in games played within the conference (8-2 to 6-3).
Here's a quick look of the current state of the NFC heading into Week 15:
- Los Angeles Rams (10-3, 1st NFC West)
- Green Bay Packers (9-3-1, 1st NFC North)
- Philadelphia Eagles (8-5, 1st NFC East)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6, 1st NFC South)
- Seattle Seahawks (10-3, 2nd NFC West)
- San Francisco 49ers (9-4, 3rd NFC West)
- Chicago Bears (9-4, 2nd NFC North)
- Detroit Lions (8-5, 3rd NFC North)
- Carolina Panthers (7-6, 2nd NFC South)
- Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1, 2nd NFC East)
- Minnesota Vikings (5-8, 4th NFC North)
As it stands now, San Francisco is being given a 93-percent chance to make the playoffs by NFL.com, which is obviously a favorable figure with four weeks remaining in the regular season. And here's what those four weeks look like for the 49ers.
- Week 15: vs. Tennessee Titans
- Week 16: at Indianapolis Colts
- Week 17: vs. Chicago Bears
- Week 18: vs. Seattle Seahawks
Now, let's have a little fun, shall we?
While nothing is guaranteed, of course, the Niners are in great shape heading into Sunday's matchup with the two-win Titans, hence those 93-percent odds. So, if every single thing goes their way down the stretch, when exactly can Kyle Shanahan & Co. first officially punch their ticket to the postseason?
49ers can clinch a Wild Card spot as early as Week 16
To start, we're going to look only at what the 49ers need to happen simply to clinch a playoff spot. As such, we can take Chicago out of the equation, although it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for the Bears to take a couple of losses before they visit Levi's Stadium in Week 17. But for these purposes, they really don't matter. So, let's move on.
The first and most obvious thing, of course, is that the Niners don't lose at all the rest of the way. So, with that out of the way, San Francisco would need the Buccaneers (vs. Falcons), Lions (at Rams), Panthers (at Saints), and Cowboys (vs. Vikings) to lose in Week 15.
The reason both the Bucs and Panthers are involved is that they're tied atop the NFC South at 7-6, meaning one will win the division and the other will be down in the Wild Card race. And we'll get back to that momentarily. If all those results play out this week, both the Cowboys and Vikings are taken out of the equation, as neither could catch San Francisco.
Then, in Week 16, the Niners would simply need another loss from the Lions (vs. Steelers). At this point, San Francisco (11-4) would be three games up on Detroit (8-7) with two weeks to play. And with the Bucs and Panthers playing each other, it wouldn't even matter to San Francisco, as the winner would move to 8-7, while the loser would drop to 7-8.
So, the absolute earliest the Niners can clinch at least a Wild Card berth is Week 16.
49ers can clinch NFC West in Week 17
Now, the big issue with the scenario above is that the Lions losing this week doesn't serve the 49ers' ultimate goal, which is obviously to win the NFC West. So, let's see how that plays out in the "everything goes right" picture.
Again, San Francisco doesn't lose moving forward. So, with a Niners win over the Titans this week and losses from the Rams (vs. Lions) and Seahawks (vs. Colts), all three teams would be 10-4, with the 49ers taking the three-way tiebreaker to move into first place.
Things then get very interesting, as the Rams and Seahawks open the Week 16 slate against one another in Seattle on Thursday Night Football. A tie is the preference here, but if somebody has to win, it's better for San Francisco if Seattle comes out on top for tiebreaker purposes. So, at this point, the 49ers and Seahawks would be 11-4, while the Rams fall to 10-5.
In Week 17, the 49ers would take down the Bears to improve to 12-4. The Rams are then knocked out of NFC West contention by falling to 10-6 with a loss to the Falcons, with the Seahawks falling to 11-5 with a loss to the Panthers. And that would actually do it for San Francisco.
And here's why.
Even if the Seahawks went on to beat the Niners in Week 18, which would put both teams at 12-5, San Francisco would still win the NFC West. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head, which would be 1-1. The second tiebreaker is best record within the division, which would be tied at 4-2. The third tiebreaker is best record in common games, which would be tied at 8-4. But the fourth tiebreaker is best record in conference games, which the 49ers would still win 9-3 to 8-4.
So, that's why the 49ers can technically clinch in Week 17 if all goes perfectly. San Francisco can obviously still win the division if the Rams win that Week 16 matchup with Seattle, but Week 18 would come into play.
Things certainly aren't likely to play out this way, but it's a fun little game to play.