49ers top NFL Draft pick made more valuable by Carson Wentz, Jared Goff

The San Francisco 49ers will have a top pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Considering quarterbacks Carson Wentz and Jared Goff’s success this season, the Niners’ first pick next year sees an increase in value.

The San Francisco 49ers should send a thank-you note to Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz and Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff this upcoming offseason.

We know the story. The Rams moved up to grab Goff at No. 1 in the 2016 NFL Draft, giving up a ton of draft capital to the Tennessee Titans in the process.

Meanwhile, the Eagles made a similar maneuver with the Cleveland Browns to select Wentz at No. 2 the same year.

PHILADELPHIA, PA – OCTOBER 23: Quarterback Carson Wentz #11 of the Philadelphia Eagles celebrates a first down during the third quarter of the game at Lincoln Financial Field on October 23, 2017 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images) /

Philadelphia is 7-1, and L.A. is 5-2. Both teams appear poised for deep playoff runs this season, justifying the aggressive trade-ups by each franchise.

And while Goff’s rookie year was a bit of a headache, a new Rams coaching staff and additional development has ushered in a new era of success in L.A.

Just check out both quarterbacks’ numbers this season:

Carson Wentz, Jared Goff 2017 Passing Table (through Week 8)
Rk		Tm	Age	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate
7	Carson Wentz	PHI	25	8	8	7-1-0	161	264	61.0	2063	19	5	7.8	8.4	12.8	257.9	101.6
23	Jared Goff	LAR	23	7	7	5-2-0	133	222	59.9	1719	9	4	7.7	7.7	12.9	245.6	90.3

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/3/2017.

This combined success means a great deal for the 49ers heading into 2018. Winless through eight games, it’s almost a guarantee general manager John Lynch will wind up with a top-two pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.

Unlike a number of other teams around the league, though, the Niners aren’t in need of a quarterback. Such need was negated by the pre-deadline trade for former New England Patriots quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.

FOXBORO, MA – OCTOBER 29: Jimmy Garoppolo #10 of the New England Patriots reacts before a game against the Los Angeles Chargers at Gillette Stadium on October 29, 2017 in Foxboro, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images) /

San Francisco can cross this need off the list.

San Francisco 49ers /

San Francisco 49ers

Value of Prospect Quarterbacks Only Increases Leading Up to the NFL Draft

Earlier this year, in a relatively weak quarterbacking draft class, we saw the stock value of prospective signal-callers only increase after the close of 2016 leading up to the NFL Draft itself.

Some prospect rankings had quarterbacks like Mitchell Trubisky and Deshaun Watson ranked as mid-to-late first-round targets, while others tabbed Patrick Mahomes as low as Round 3.

All three ended up going in Round 1 — Trubisky at No. 2 overall to the Chicago Bears, Watson to the Houston Texans, via a trade, at No. 12 and Mahomes, also via a trade, went at No. 10 to the Kansas City Chiefs.

This year, the quarterback class is a bit deeper. Throwers like USC’s Sam Darnold, UCLA’s Josh Rosen, Wyoming’s Josh Allen, Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph, Louisville’s Lamar Jackson and Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield could all be in first- or second-round consideration.

NFL Teams Needing Quarterbacks Get Desperate

Prospective-quarterback value will increase simply based off how many NFL teams are QB hungry heading towards 2018.

Here are a few and why:

New York Jets: Josh McCown is 38 years old and will be a free agent
Arizona Cardinals: Carson Palmer is 38 years old and is on IR with a broken arm
Denver Broncos: Neither Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler nor Paxton Lynch appear to be the answer
Washington Redskins: Kirk Cousins is headed towards a lucrative free-agent contract
Minnesota Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater? Sam Bradford? Case Keenum?
Jacksonville Jaguars: Blake Bortles… enough said

PHILADELPHIA, PA – APRIL 27: (L-R) Mitchell Trubisky of North Carolina poses with Commissioner of the National Football League Roger Goodell after being picked #2 overall by the Chicago Bears (from 49ers) during the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft at the Philadelphia Museum of Art on April 27, 2017 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images) /

One could throw New York Giants QB Eli Manning on there because of his age, as well as the New Orleans Saints’ Drew Brees because of age and pending free agency.

Needless to say, there are more than just a handful of teams in need of a future quarterback.

What’s going to happen is many of those teams will see the kind of success both Goff and Wentz are having with their respective teams this year. Remember, it’s a copycat league, and both the Rams and Eagles are reaping the rewards from investments many probably viewed as risky at the time.

How the 49ers Can Take Advantage

The Niners aren’t one of those teams in need of a quarterback this offseason. That’s huge. But with so many other needs on the table, a No. 1, 2 or 3 pick atop the NFL Draft would go a long way towards acquiring other assets.

General manager John Lynch solved one problem via the Garoppolo trade. And last year, he executed the perfect trade-down with the Bears, who landed Trubisky at No. 2.

Without diving too deep into the trade scenarios, let’s get an idea what each pick would be worth, according to this chart from Pro Football Talk:

Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
1	3,000	33	580	65	265	97	112	129	43	161	27	193	14.2
2	2,600	34	560	66	260	98	108	130	42	162	26.6	194	13.8
3	2,200	35	550	67	255	99	104	131	41	163	26.2	195	13.4
4	1,800	36	540	68	250	100	100	132	40	164	25.8	196	13
5	1,700	37	530	69	245	101	96	133	39.5	165	25.4	197	12.6
6	1,600	38	520	70	240	102	92	134	39	166	25	198	12.2
7	1,500	39	510	71	235	103	88	135	38.5	167	24.6	199	11.8
8	1,400	40	500	72	230	104	86	136	38	168	24.2	200	11.4
9	1,350	41	490	73	225	105	84	137	37.5	169	23.8	201	11
10	1,300	42	480	74	220	106	82	138	37	170	23.4	202	10.6
11	1,250	43	470	75	215	107	80	139	36.5	171	23	203	10.2
12	1,200	44	460	76	210	108	78	140	36	172	22.6	204	9.8
13	1,150	45	450	77	205	109	76	141	35.5	173	22.2	205	9.4
14	1,100	46	440	78	200	110	74	142	35	174	21.8	206	9
15	1,050	47	430	79	195	111	72	143	34.5	175	21.4	207	8.6
16	1,000	48	420	80	190	112	70	144	34	176	21	208	8.2
17	950	49	410	81	185	113	68	145	33.5	177	20.6	209	7.8
18	900	50	400	82	180	114	66	146	33	178	20.2	210	7.4
19	875	51	390	83	175	115	64	147	32.6	179	19.8	211	7
20	850	52	380	84	170	116	62	148	32.2	180	19.4	212	6.6
21	800	53	370	85	165	117	60	149	31.8	181	19	213	6.2
22	780	54	360	86	160	118	58	150	31.4	182	18.6	214	5.8
23	760	55	350	87	155	119	56	151	31	183	18.2	215	5.4
24	740	56	340	88	150	120	54	152	30.6	184	17.8	216	5
25	720	57	330	89	145	121	52	153	30.2	185	17.4	217	4.6
26	700	58	320	90	140	122	50	154	29.8	186	17	218	4.2
27	680	59	310	91	136	123	49	155	29.4	187	16.6	219	3.8
28	660	60	300	92	132	124	48	156	29	188	16.2	220	3.4
29	640	61	292	93	128	125	47	157	28.6	189	15.8	221	3
30	620	62	284	94	124	126	46	158	28.2	190	15.4	222	2.6
31	600	63	276	95	120	127	45	159	27.8	191	15	223	2.3
32	590	64	270	96	116	128	44	160	27.4	192	14.6	224	2

Needless to say, the 49ers’ top pick in Round 1 is going to command a lot of value. Another team picking at, let’s say, No. 16 would have to offer up at least two first rounders, a second and perhaps some change to make the value match.

And templates are already set by what the Rams and Eagles gave up to grab Goff and Wentz, respectively.

More from Niner Noise

With so many other teams in need of quarterbacks, though, the 49ers would be in a position to be even more greedy. Combine this with the success Goff and Wentz are having, those teams wouldn’t feel the need to be as gun shy about executing such a deal.

Trading down from a likely top-three pick in the draft is exactly what the 49ers need to do this upcoming April. While this season hasn’t gone well for the Niners at all, they can at least take comfort knowing Garoppolo is the future and other teams will try to match the success both the Rams and Eagles are experiencing now.

Next: 2018 mock NFL Draft after flurry of trade-deadline deals

It’s time for Lynch and the Niners to cash in.

49ers’ top pick in 2018 NFL Draft made more valuable by QBs Carson Wentz, Jared Goff

By Peter Panacy | Nov 4, 2017