Niner Noise
FanSided

49ers film room: Top 10 plays from Week 5 vs. Colts

By Chris Wilson

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - OCTOBER 08: George Kittle #85 of the San Francisco 49ers celebrates after scoring a game tying touchdown in the fourth quarter during the game between the Indianapolis Colts and the San Francisco 49ers at Lucas Oil Stadium on October 8, 2017 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Bobby Ellis/Getty Images)
INDIANAPOLIS, IN - OCTOBER 08: George Kittle #85 of the San Francisco 49ers celebrates after scoring a game tying touchdown in the fourth quarter during the game between the Indianapolis Colts and the San Francisco 49ers at Lucas Oil Stadium on October 8, 2017 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Bobby Ellis/Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit
Prev
11 of 11
Next
49ers Colts
INDIANAPOLIS, IN – OCTOBER 08: Adam Vinatieri #4 of the Indianapolis Colts kicks the game winning field goal during overtime in the game between the Indianapolis Colts and the San Francisco 49ers at Lucas Oil Stadium on October 8, 2017 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Bobby Ellis/Getty Images) /

Adam Vinatieri 51-yard field goal (No. 2)

After the long run, the 49ers defense holds tough over the next three plays, allowing no additional yardage, which drops the Colts’ win probability by 11 percent. On 4th and-10 from the 34-yard line, Indianapolis sets up for the potential game-winning field goal attempt.

The Colts are within the range of kicker Adam Vinatieri — who has converted eight of nine field-goal attempts on the year, including a 52-yard conversion earlier in the game. Vinatieri’s kick initially flirts with the right upright before straightening out, giving the Colts three points and a victory over the 49ers:

Win probability: +44% (56% to 100%)

Next: NFL Week-6 Power Rankings

Near the end of a game — and especially in overtime — each play has an increased impact on a team’s win probability. With four losses by a combined 11 points, one small mistake by the 49ers at the end of each game — or one big play by their opponent — has been the difference between a 4-1 and an 0-5 team.