Marlon Mack 35-yard run (No. 3)
On the next play, the Colts line up in 11 personnel with two receivers in condensed splits on the right side of the formation. After the ball is snapped, Jacoby Brissett hands the ball off to running back Marlon Mack, and then fakes the reverse to T.Y. Hilton.
Mack is forced to bounce outside, due to penetration by 49ers’ defensive end Solomon Thomas. With the 49ers in man coverage, Rashard Robinson — who is unable to see into the backfield — follows Hilton on the reverse.
Defensive lineman Arik Armstead is late to decipher the play — by the time he tries to get outside, Mack already has the edge; but the real culprit on this play is nickel corner K’Waun Williams. Instead of getting outside to force Mack back toward the rest of the defense, Williams gets caught flat-footed staring into the backfield.
Mack easily outruns Earl Mitchell, and after Jimmie Ward takes a bad angle and linebacker Brock Coyle misses a tackle, Mack is finally taken down by linebacker NaVorro Bowman after a 35-yard gain:
Win probability: +36% (31% to 67%)