San Francisco 49ers: Why Wide Receiver Will Be a Problem in 2016

Dec 20, 2015; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Torrey Smith (82) runs after the catch during the fourth quarter of the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Levi’s Stadium. The Cincinnati Bengals defeated the San Francisco 49ers 24-14. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports /

The San Francisco 49ers didn’t spend much time upgrading their receiving corps this offseason. That could come back to haunt them.

The hardest part about projecting the 2016 San Francisco 49ers—and part of the reason that you should take things like Football Outsiders’ early projection that the 49ers will finish with the second-worst record in the NFL with more helpings of salt that normal—is the fact that bringing in a new coach from outside the franchise, along with an entirely new offensive system, has a way to dramatically alter a team’s fortunes. We saw this in 2011 when Jim Harbaugh took over the rains from Mike Singletary and immediately took roughly the same roster from a 6-10 season to a 13-3 season. Sometimes, poor performance is a result of poor utilization, and perhaps the arrival of Chip Kelly will see a similar, if likely less dramatic, improvement in the fortunes of players already on the roster.

Of course, a new coach is not a magic wand. It’s not like Jim Tomsula or Geep Chryst were scheming the offensive line to give up 50 sacks, nor that they took Colin Kaepernick or Blaine Gabbert aside and asked them to lead an offense that scored the fewest points in the league in 2016. Scheme matters, but the offense also suffers from major question marks up and down the roster, and the new coaching staff’s ability to maximize what they can get out of what, on paper, seems like an underwhelming collection of talent will determine how good the 49ers are this season.

The biggest issue facing the team is, of course, the most important position on the field—quarterback. However, that’s been addressed over and over again, including Douglas Totten’s piece from a few days ago. Instead, I’d like to look at a different trouble spot for the team—wide receiver.

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Including their recent undrafted free agent signings, the 49ers currently have 12 receivers on the roster. Only two, Torrey Smith and Jerome Simpson, have ever had a season with 500 or more receiving yards, and neither precisely excelled for the club last season. The only receiver who played like an adequate starter in 2015 was Anquan Boldin, and he remains an unsigned free agent. The 49ers’ receiving corps is filled with question marks—players with potential who haven’t yet developed, players who have never played a down in the NFL, and players who have yet to produce in a 49ers’ uniform.

It’s a far cry from the talent Kelly had in Philadelphia. At various points in his three years as the Eagles’ head coach, Kelly had a number of highly-drafted receivers to work with, including Zach Ertz, Jordan Matthews, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. On paper, at least, that’s a much greater caliber of player than the 49ers have; at the very least, they were more highly regarded as young players than the day-three draftees the 49ers are giving him.

Again, that’s not to say that the 49ers have no talent at the position or no hope—just that every single player on the roster brings with it a question mark, with no sure things to center a rebuild around. Almost every receiver on the roster could break out in 2016—there’s untapped potential and promising attributes up and down the lineup, and it’s entirely justifiable for fans to look at the talent, look at the state Jim Tomsula left the offense in, and dream of a Chip Kelly-inspired renaissance.

January 20, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Chip Kelly poses for a photo after being introduced as the new head coach for the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium Auditorium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports /

The problem with potential and hope, however, is that sometimes it simply doesn’t work out. The 49ers have a number of lottery tickets at the position, and while it’s possible to hit the jackpot on any one of them, they often end up consigned to the dustbin. It would be much better to have a name or two at the top of the roster who you can count on for production—in other words, the role Anquan Boldin has played the past three years, as even when the offense was sputtering, you knew you could count on Boldin to make a key play when the team needed it most. Without a player of that caliber, the issue the 49ers have is not a lack of depth, per se, but a lack of players who currently can be counted on when the going gets tough.

The glass-half-full way of looking at this, of course, is that the void at the top of the roster simply provides opportunities for young, untested players to shine. There’s a grain of truth in that, too—again, the 49ers are switching from what was a rather simplified safe offense, even when they were winning under Harbaugh and Greg Roman, to a more dynamic and exciting offense run by an offensive “genius”.

Still, looking around the league, how many rosters could you look at and objectively say the 49ers were better set at receiver? CBS’s rankings had the 49ers 30^th out of 32 just before the draft, and one of the teams below them, the Cleveland Browns, added a first-round pick and three later-round picks to their depth chart. We can argue and disagree about precisely where the 49ers rank, but it would be very difficult to place them out of the bottom quartile.

Outside of Smith and Simpson, the rest of the 49ers’ receiver corps has combined for 57 catches for 705 yards. That’s less than Stefon Diggs, a fifth-round rookie receiver for the Minnesota Vikings, put up last year. All in all, 20 receivers drafted in the last three seasons outperformed the career output of Ellington, Patton and company last year. You can argue that that’s just talent not getting a chance to contribute or stuck in a poor offensive system, but it also implies a lack of overall talent on the roster; no one has stepped up in the opportunities they have had, and increasing their share of targets will not necessarily cause their performance to skyrocket.

Let’s take a brief look at who the 49ers do have on the roster.

Torrey Smith

Oct 4, 2015; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Torrey Smith (82) makes a catch in front of Green Bay Packers cornerback Damarious Randall (23) in the fourth quarter at Levi’s Stadium. The Packers defeated the 49ers 17-3. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports /

Smith’s one of only two receivers on the roster who has ever been a successful NFL player, but it’s safe to say that his debut in 49ers red and gold last season was a bit of a disappointment, considering he was the team’s top free agent acquisition last year. Smith’s 33 receptions, 663 yards and four touchdowns all tied or beat career lows, and he generally had his worst season since he entered the league. It’s not unheard of for players with a down season moving into a new system to bounce back—players like Braylon Edwards and Donte’ Stallworth have turned in better years in new systems after a one-year downturn, but perhaps it’s the case of DeSean Jackson that should give 49ers fans the most hope here.

Jackson’s 2012 season was, at the time, the worst of his career, thanks in large part to a rib fracture he suffered late in the year. Then, a new coach named Chip Kelly came into town, and Jackson rebounded, nearly doubling his catch and yardage total, more than doubling his receiving yards total and making the Pro Bowl for the third time in his career. One bad season isn’t reason to fully write off Smith, but it remains to be seen if his one trick (deep speed) will work well with a quarterback without a big arm like Blaine Gabbert.

Quinton Patton

Patton probably becomes the leader in the clubhouse for the other starting receiver position now that Anquan Boldin is gone. However, he’s currently in a bit of limbo, with a cast on his right arm, and he’s missing valuable time when Kelly’s installing his offense.

Bruce Ellington

Ellington will also likely see the field more in 2016, because Kelly loves his three-receiver sets. He only has 19 receptions in his NFL career, though, so counting on him to explode in his third season in the league is probably overly optimistic. Chip Kelly is reportedly “intrigued” by his skill set, as 49ers fans have been since he was drafted, but he’s not Kelly’s normal type of receiver, being small and shifty rather than big and sure-handed.

Jerome Simpson

Nov 8, 2015; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Atlanta Falcons defensive back Phillip Adams (20) intercepts the ball against San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Jerome Simpson (14) during the third quarter at Levi’s Stadium. The San Francisco 49ers defeated the Atlanta Falcons 17-16. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports /

If I had to put money on the 49er receiver with the least potential to improve in 2016, it’d be Simpson. Simpson was the veteran addition last season, but he was suspended to start the season last year and notably wasn’t activated immediately when his suspension finished, despite the team’s need for playmakers. Simpson put up a solid year in 2013 in Minnesota and a half-way decent one in Cincinnati in 2011, but he’s been a back-of-the-roster player for the rest of his career.

DeAndrew White

White was an interesting story with a lot of potential last offseason, and then the regular season began and he more or less vanished, returning a handful of kicks and punts and catching a whopping two passes. That career makes him the fifth-most experienced receiver on the 49ers’ roster.

DeAndre Smelter

Last year’s red-shirt prospect, Smelter missed all of last season with a knee injury suffered in college. He is reportedly fully healthy now, and he is the sort of receiver Kelly praises—big, at 6’2”and 226 pounds. With so many question marks ahead of him, don’t be surprised if Smelter carves out a fair share of targets this year.

Dres Anderson

Anderson also missed all of last season recovering from a knee injury. He’s probably best suited for another year on the practice squad.

Aaron Burbridge

Dec 5, 2015; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Michigan State Spartans wide receiver Aaron Burbridge (16) runs the ball as Iowa Hawkeyes linebacker Ben Niemann (44) looks to defend during the first half in the Big Ten Conference football championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports /

This year’s sixth round pick is an interesting prospect—he was Connor Cook’s most reliable receiver at Michigan State last year. It’s easy to see why he fell to the sixth round—his combine measurables were very bad, with tiny (eight-inch) hands, a poor 4.56-second 40-yard dash (with a terrible 1.63-second 10-yard split), and bad scores in the shuttle and jumping drills as well. He’s not going to be a dynamic game changer or anything of that nature, but he at least put up major numbers in college and made some very impressive mid-air catches. He’s probably another longer-term development project rather than someone who’s going to step in right away, but it wouldn’t be at all shocking to see him earn a roster slot.

Devon Cajuste

An undrafted free agent out of Stanford, Cajuste is either a wide reciver with sub-par speed (a 4.62-second 40-yard dash) or an undersized project to be moved to tight end. Like Burbridge, there are fairly obvious reasons they didn’t come flying off the board early, but Cajuste’s ball skills might be enough for him to succeed as a big slot, Devin Funchess-esque receiver.

Eric Rogers

The first player Chip Kelly added to the roster, Rogers was a CFL star, putting up 87 receptions, 1,448 yards and 10 touchdowns with the Calgary Stampeders. Obviously, NFL competition is a different beast from the CFL or the Arena League, where Rogers also had success, but a young player, overlooked due to playing in a Division III school, who had success every time he’s been giving a chance is definitely worth keeping an eye on. He couldn’t make the Dallas Cowboys out of college, but two years of pro success may help him out. Put a pin in him; there could be something there.

DiAndre Campbell

The third of the DeAndre trio, Campbell was an undrafted free agent out of Washington last season and never saw the field in the regular season, spending most of the year on the practice squad. He’s a longshot to make the roster.

Bryce Teggs

Another undrafted free agent, this one out of Cal. Treggs was a four-year starter at Cal, but the skinny receiver lacks a lot of functional strength that’s expected out of a receiver on the NFL level. There’s more than enough production, and potential on special teams, to bring him in as a UDFA, but he’s a longshot to make the roster.

A lot of question marks, a lot of possibility, and nothing set in stone. The lack of an established, veteran receiver who can be counted on in the clutch is a serious negative as the team goes forward. Yes, it’s possible that some of these wildcards will turn out—it’s not like the team is filled with players who have proven they can’t hack it on an NFL level.

However, this is the time of year when every team raves about the untapped potential of their players—and nearly every NFL team has more established talent at the positon than the 49ers do, as well. Unless Chip Kelly manages to turn some of that potential into actual on-field production, it will be another longer season for the 49ers.

Next: Best and Worst Picks from the 2016 NFL Draft

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