2016 Prospect Watch: Why Noah Spence Is a Fit for 49ers

Would the San Francisco 49ers gamble on another troubled but talented pass-rusher in the 2016 NFL draft? If so, Kentucky’s Noah Spence could be the fit.

We’ve mostly focused on the offensive options for the San Francisco 49ers in the 2016 NFL draft; they need help at nearly every position on the unit, so that’s not surprising. However, there are scenarios in which the best pick they could make would be a stud defender to help bolster last year’s 18^th-ranked defense.

The 49ers had the fifth-fewest sacks in the NFL last season. Aaron Lynch looks like the real deal at one outside linebacker spot, but that still leaves a void in the pass rush that the 49ers have been trying to fill since Aldon Smith’s off-field issues made him too troublesome to keep on the roster.

If every player comes off the board in the draft in roughly their valued order, the 49ers should stick with filling their offensive needs. But what if a notable talent slides?

Looking over the mock drafts available over on NFL.com, one player has slipped out of the first round on multiple draft boards—Eastern Kentucky edge rusher Noah Spence. If he does slide into the second round—or if the 49ers find themselves bouncing back up to the back half of the first round for some reason—Spence would be a significant addition to a moribund pass rush.

There was a point at which the idea of taking Spence in the second round would have been ridiculous—in this mock draft from last month on SBNation, Spence was the 49ers’ selection with the seventh overall pick.

More and more often, however, we’re seeing him beginning to fall—in addition to the two NFL.com drafts by Daniel Jeremiah and Charles Davis, the mock draft on Walter Football and Rob Rang’s draft on CBS all have Spence falling out of the first round. I would argue it’s still slightly more likely than not that Spence goes in the first 30 selections, but it seems to be getting more likely by the day that the big edge rusher might fall to the 49ers with their second pick.

While the seventh-overall pick has always seemed a bit high for Spence, even when he was being projected that high, there’s no doubting that he’s immensely talented. Spence was a first-team All-Big Ten pick at Ohio State in 2013, racking up eight sacks against top-quality competition. He has shown a great motor, being both willing and able to follow plays all around the field, and his endurance means he can be out there play after play without tiring.

His burst off the line and variety of pass-rush moves have made him a difficult target for opposing blockers to pick up, and he dominated his competition at lower-level Eastern Kentucky. He has experience playing both on the line and standing up as a linebacker—and maybe better suited for a 3-4 OLB position anyway, thanks to his slightly subpar height and length. He’s been compared to Von Miller by some, though Khalil Mack might be a better comparison.

Either way, on talent alone, Spence is a first-round pick.

You may notice that Spence racked up numbers at two different schools, and there lies the reason for concern. On the field, Spence has put up tremendous numbers.

Off the field, however, Spence has gotten in more than his fair share of trouble.

Spence was banned from the Big Ten for repeated failed drug tests, in 2013 and 2014. He was also arrested in May 2015 for alcohol intoxication and underwent treatment for an addiction to Ecstasy. These are significant red flags—the last thing the 49ers want is another Aldon Smith situation, where a talented player can’t control his personal demons and ends up suspended or in trouble with the law more often than not.

Spence compounded those issues with a sub-par combine. His 4.8-second 40-yard dash was terribly slow, and his interviews were reportedly “very shaky”—not at all the performance you want from a player who had concerns and issues coming in.

That would keep me well away from Spence as a first-round selection; the pick is too valuable to use on a question mark like that. While no one can deny Aldon Smith’s talent, the thought that the 49ers could have had J.J. Watt or Robert Quinn at that draft spot instead, and thus gotten more consistent production instead of watching someone struggle to stay on the field, hurts. It would be hard to use another top draft pick on someone like Spence after experiencing that.

However, there are signs that Spence has begun to turn things around—to the extent where his undeniable talent makes him draftable early on day two.

First and foremost was his decision to go back to school. He was draft-eligible last season, after being banned from the Big 10 for life, and it would have been an easy decision to do so—after all, his college career looked over, and his raw talent could have seen him get a pick in the top three rounds.

Instead, he transferred to FCS Eastern Kentucky, which I think shows a good awareness of what he needed to do to both rehabilitate his image as well as turn his life around. He’s still spoken of highly by ex-coach Urban Meyer, as well as his position coaches and teammates from Ohio State. He also willingly underwent voluntary drug testing at EKU, and always came up clean. He also acknowledged at the combine that he needs to “stay away from the party scene”, so at least he’s up front about his issues.

It’s certainly not a guarantee that he’ll be clean from this point on, but he at least took positive steps in his time at EKU.

As for his poor performance at the scouting combine, that can be overblown. It’s entirely possible Spence is one of those players who performs better with pads on than in shorts. His production both at Ohio State and at EKU, as well as the fantastic reviews he got at the Senior Bowl, makes me a little more comfortable despite his poor performance in Indianapolis.

Spence is definitely on San Francisco’s radar. They sent scouts to the Eastern Kentucky pro day, per Matt Barrows, and 49ers.com listed him as a potential draft pick earlier this month. They may be hesitant to use the pick on him for a variety of reasons—his off-field issues, a slightly undersized frame, etc—but his raw talent on the field might be too much for the 49ers to ignore if he does fall down to pick 37.

Next: Five Late-Round Targets for San Francisco

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Bryan Knowles is a staff writer here at Niner Noise. Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.