Breaking Down 49ers Salary Cap Situation Before Free Agency
The San Francisco 49ers have plenty of cap room. What should they do with it in free agency?
The San Francisco 49ers are still in fantastic shape when it comes to the salary cap.
According to Over the Cap’s projections, the 49ers have the second-most cap space available at the moment; a massive $62,250,087 available to spend in 2016. Only the Jacksonville Jaguars have more money to throw around this offseason than the 49ers do.
Things get even better looking into the future.
The 49ers are the fifth-least cap-committed team going forward; they have a low payroll, very few fully guaranteed salary points and plenty of flexibility going forward.
That’s the benefit of the mass exodus of talent that happened last offseason; the 49ers are a fairly clean slate going forward, and have the freedom to build in any way they so choose.
Let’s go into a bit more detail and see where the 49ers have allocated the cap, what they might use to re-sign their own free agents, and what’s left to target in the free agent market.
Pre-Existing Contracts
The five largest contracts remaining on the 49ers’ books, in terms of guaranteed money, are:
- Offensive tackle Joe Staley ($8.8 million guaranteed remaining)
- Defensive tackle Arik Armstead ($8.1 million guaranteed remaining)
- Quarterback Colin Kaepernick ($7.4 million guaranteed remaining)
- Wide receiver Torrey Smith ($6.4 million guaranteed remaining)
- Linebacker NaVorro Bowman ($5.1 million guaranteed remaining)
Even if the 49ers were up against the salary cap ceiling—which, again, they very much are not—Staley, Armstead, Smith and Bowman’s deals are too large to really move. As all four are either established good players or rookies with tons of potential, that’s not a huge issue, but it remains true.
Kaepernick is, of course, a different story. He’s slated to count $15.9 million against the cap in 2016, $19.4 million in 2017, $19.9 million in 2018, $19.2 million in 2019 and $21.4 million in 2020.
These aren’t bad numbers for a starting quarterback, but if he’s not going to be the starter, that’s a huge chunk of change to deal with. With Kaepernick reportedly wanting out, the 49ers could further free up significant salary space by either trading or releasing Kaepernick before his contract becomes guaranteed for 2016 on April 1st.
It’s probably in the team’s best interests to try to come to an understanding with Kaepernick and keep him on the roster, thanks to the difficulty of finding starting-caliber quarterbacks. Kaepernick is overpaid based on his recent performance, yes, but the 49ers have the cap room to swallow it.
If they feel the need to pry up some cap space for other reasons, they have other targets on the roster they could release.
Ahmad Brooks counts $8 million against the cap this year; cutting his contract now would save the 49ers about $4.8 million this season. Considering Brooks’ decline in recent years and the increasing performance of Aaron Lynch as a rush linebacker, Brooks makes the most sense if the 49ers are desperate to dig out a little extra cash.
Glenn Dorsey ($2.8 million cap hit), Erik Pears ($2.4 million) and Antoine Bethea ($6 million) would be other options to look at if the 49ers decided they just needed a little more space; again, however, they are not under any significant cap pressures.
It’s also worth noting that, according to Over the Cap’s compensatory draft pick projections, the 49ers will need to leave about $4.3 million free to sign the rookie class of 2016. With more than $60 million free and clear, the 49ers don’t have to spend too much time worrying here, but it’s good to have a basic idea of the financial situation going in.
Re-Signing Players
The 49ers have a number of outstanding free agents remaining, but only four would likely have any significant impact on the salary cap—guard Alex Boone, nose tackle Ian Williams, kicker Phil Dawson and wide receiver Anquan Boldin.
However, the 49ers may not be looking to re-sign most of those players.
Boone has had issues with management and his contract in the past, and I’d expect him to leave for any comparable offer anywhere else, especially with a team with a chance of contending in 2016. Boldin is rumored to want to play for a Super Bowl-contending team, and who can blame a receiver at the back end of his career for wanting one final chance at a ring? Dawson is 41 years old and had a big contract last season; he’d be a logical player to let go in favor of someone younger and cheaper.
That leaves Ian Williams, who fits the 49ers’ profile more clearly. He’s young at only 26, was a team captain last year, and played at a high level against the run.
The team won’t want to break the bank for a player who doesn’t play in the nickel, or about half of the team’s defensive snaps, but he’s worth a significant deal and the 49ers have the cap room to do it.
I’d imagine a deal in the four-year, $30-million range would be just about right to keep him in the red and gold in upcoming seasons.
Boone’s the only other player I’d see the 49ers making a push for, but I think he might be shooting for a Mike Iupati-esque contract; something in the neighborhood of five years and $40 million.
That’s an awful lot to swallow, so I think the 49ers will let him move on and try to address the position elsewhere.
Free Agent Targets
The biggest target the 49ers should have isn’t a veteran quarterback or a stud on the offensive line—it’s a number one cornerback.
For every other position the 49ers have needs, there are respectable options in the draft at places which correspond with the 49ers’ value. That is to say, they could get a starting quarterback in the first round or a developmental one in the third, and it could play into an overall rebuilding plan. They could take a stud offensive tackle or pass rusher to cement the offensive or defensive lines early, or take depth late, and it could be argued.
At cornerback, however, the 49ers have a number of very solid options, but no true top guy.
If they could drop Tramaine Brock to a number two corner and Dontae Johnson and Jimmie Ward to nickel and dime options, than they’d be in a much better situation. They don’t need depth, in other words, but a top guy, and that’s something that can only be really done in the first round of the draft or in free agency.
Considering the 49ers plethora of needs, using a first-round pick on a cornerback seems foolish, so free agency is the way to go.
Prince Amukamara, Sean Smith and Adam Jones are all available, but my favorite of the lot might be Los Angeles Rams corner Janoris Jenkins. A nice, meaty, five-year, $55 million deal might be enough to draw him over to San Francisco—and with their current cap situation, they could front load it quite nicely to avoid heavy cap hits later down the line.
What’s the use of cap space if you don’t use it, right?
The big splash at quarterback would be bringing in Robert Griffin III, though I’m not sold on that as a starting option. I don’t feel a duo of Griffin and Gabbert are enough at the quarterback position, but it feels like Griffin, Gabbert and a draft pick would be overkill.
At the very least, I wouldn’t pay Griffin like a starter at this point; he’d have to come in and compete for the role. I think I’d stay clear of the free agent market there, and instead look to sign cheaper, second-tier players along the lines.
Instead, I’d target players like guard Mike Harris from Minnesota and center Stefen Wisniewski from Jacksonville, both of whom could be had for fairly reasonable contracts. The 49ers are apparently looking into a trade for De’Anthony Thomas, but I’d prefer going after Marvin Jones or Travis Benjamin in free agency.
Basically, what I want most from the 49ers is a sense of logical planning to their offseason. That was missing last season, as moves like signing Jerome Simpson and Shareece Wright made little sense at the time and didn’t pan out.
With a roster full of holes and a wallet full of cash, there are tons of different directions the 49ers can go in free agency.
As long as it shows that the franchise has a plan for digging themselves out of the hole they find themselves in, it will be a successful free agent period.
Next: Draft-Day Trade Down Scenarios
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Bryan Knowles is a staff writer here at Niner Noise. Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.