San Francisco 49ers: Draft Day Trade Down Scenarios

Should the San Francisco 49ers trade down from the seventh overall pick? There are some tempting scenarios.

One of the most common suggestions for a team with a high pick, like the San Francisco 49ers, is to trade down.

This is, of course, easier said than done, but it’s a fair strategy. Why put all your eggs into one basket, when you can trade down and get more baskets? Yes, players picked at, say, the 15^th overall pick generally don’t turn out as talented as players picked with the seventh pick, but the more cracks a team gets at drafting a top player, the more likely they are to succeed, right?

With that in mind, let’s look at three possible trade-down scenarios, who the team could grab with their new picks, and what would make the most sense.

I’m taking the baseline stance that if the 49ers do not trade down, they’ll end up taking either quarterback Jared Goff or Carson Wentz, depending on what the Browns do with the second overall pick.

Trade No. 1: Philadelphia Eagles

San Francisco gives up their first-round selection (seventh overall) and their first fifth-round selection (142^nd overall)
Philadelphia gives up their first-round selection (13^th overall) and both third-round selections (77^th and 79^th overall)

So maybe you’re not sold on either Goff or Wentz with a top-ten pick. Maybe you think the 49ers still need a first-round quarterback, but they could pick up some extra value rather than spending all that draft capital on one guy in the top ten.

The Eagles are in somewhat dire need of a cornerback. They overpaid for Byron Maxwell, and between Cary Williams, Nolan Carroll and Brandon Boykin, maybe have a number two cornerback. They don’t have a second round pick, which is unfortunate, but the 49ers could trade down and pick up multiple third-round picks to bolster their second day of the draft.

The Eagles, trading up, could grab cornerback Vernon Hargreaves out of Florida, who fits what they need nicely and is unlikely to get past the Giants in the 10^th overall pick. Filling a need and taking a player from a division rival makes sense for the Eagles, so this trade could make a lot of sense for them.

Sliding back, the 49ers could take Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch before someone like the Rams pull the trigger on him—again, filling a need and taking a player away from a division rival. They could then try to package their two third-round picks and jump back into the second round.

With three picks in the top 50, the 49ers could then come away with Lynch, a lineman like Texas A&M’s Germain Ifedi and a receiver like Ohio State’s Michael Thomas. That would be a great one-two-three punch to revitalize a moribund offense—a potential franchise quarterback, someone to protect his blindside in the future and a weapon for him to get the ball to.

That’s a strategy.

Trade No. 2: Houston Texans

San Francisco gives up their first-round selection (seventh overall)
Houston gives up their first-round selection (23^rd overall) and second-round selection (52^nd overall), as well as their first-round selection in 2017.

Some analysts have the 49ers drafting receiver Laquon Treadwell with the seventh overall pick, but he’s slid more and more on draft boards in recent weeks—CBS has him going 15^th or 16^th, for example, while NFL.com’s most recent mock has him falling all the way down to the Bengals with the 24^th overall pick.

That sounds like a fall the 49ers could take advantage of.

You know who could desperately use a quarterback, though? The Houston Texans. This was a playoff team with Brian Hoyer as their top option; imagine what they could do with someone competent.

This trade allows them to shoot into the top 10 to grab either Goff or Wentz, leaving the 49ers to deal with their quarterback selection in another way.

In this trade, the 49ers grab the falling Treadwell to give whoever’s behind center the most talented receiving option in the draft, which is bound to help out any passer.

They don’t even need to give up a valuable third-day draft choice to make the numbers work. They could then pair Treadwell with a lineman like Ifedi and a second-round quarterback like Michigan State’s Connor Cook to complete that ideal quarterback-receiver-lineman trio.

It would also give the 49ers a first-round pick next year to work with as well—that’s the bounty that teams usually get if they try to rise 15 picks and get into the top ten.

Trade No. 3: New York Giants

San Francisco gives up their first-round selection (seventh overall) and their second fifth-round selection (145^th overall)
New York gives up their first-round selection (10^th overall) and their third-round selection (71^st overall)

A more conservative move back wouldn’t provide the 49ers with any new selections, but would essentially upgrade a pick from the third day of the draft to the second day of the draft, and improve the quality of the picks overall.

This would move the 49ers out of range for one of the top two quarterbacks, but could still end up with them getting a stud offensive tackle like Ronnie Stanley. If you feel building from the line forward is the best strategy for the 49ers, trading back a few slots makes a lot of sense, and they could then try to get a Connor Cook or Christian Hackenberg on the second day of the draft to provide a long-term plan at the quarterback position.

It’s not as exciting or as fruitful as a trade further down the line and the addition of extra picks, but it would result in a higher blue-chip prospect like Stanley coming to the team, rather than a larger number of lesser-rated prospect.

I still believe that, if either Goff or Wentz are available with the seventh pick, the 49ers should stay put and make the selection. If both are gone, however, they have the opportunity to trade back, accumulate extra picks and improve their draft position.

In that scenario, the 49ers should attempt to move down and get more value out of the picks they have. There’s no sense to simply taking a player with the seventh pick if the team doesn’t believe the players aren’t worth it. By trading back, they can target specific players at specific locations, getting the most value out of their draft day selections.

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Bryan Knowles is a staff writer here at Niner Noise. Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.