San Francisco 49ers: Chip Kelly Brings With Him Unanswered Questions
Chip Kelly is the next head coach of the San Francisco 49ers. This should be interesting…
The San Francisco 49ers hired the 19th man to be head coach in franchise history, picking ex-Philadelphia Eagles coach Chip Kelly to lead the franchise. Though reports from last week had Hue Jackson as the 49ers’ front-runner, his decision to take the Cleveland job instead led the 49ers to double back and re-evaluate Kelly, ultimately choosing him over the likes of Mike Shanahan.
The timing of the hire—Kelly was first interviewed last week, before the reports that Jackson was their man—indicates that Kelly was not the first choice of the franchise. At the same time, he brings with him much more success and a better pedigree than their last hire, Jim Tomsula, so at least it’s a step up from the coaching search last year.
Kelly also brings with him a number of significant questions which need to be answered. Hiring Kelly is a spectacular move in the older sense of the term—it will be a spectacle. It’s the kind of move that’s likely to either propel the team to new heights or have them explode in a fireball of drama and tension—either way, a more interesting situation than Tomsula’s 2015 reign, which was more of a sad trombone note.
Whether Kelly will propel the team forward or drive them into the ground will depend on what the answers to these questions are.
Question One: What Happened Last Season?
Chip Kelly rattled off four straight 10-win seasons in Oregon, and then traveled to Philadelphia and had two more 10-win seasons. All this came crashing down last season, when he led the Eagles to a 6-9 record before being fired with one week remaining in the regular season.
What happened, and does Kelly know how to fix it? The answer to that question is complex and multi-faceted, but there are two general theories. The first theory is that Kelly’s offense, as well as his philosophy that “culture beats scheme”, has been sniffed out and defeated by NFL-level coordinators. Supporters of this theory will note that Kelly’s offensive DVOA in his time in Philadelphia dropped from third to 13th to 26th over his three-year tenure. The theory says that the gimmicky, high-tempo offense goes against what the NFL has traditionally done, and once the league had a chance to really sniff it out and gameplan against it, they’ve shut it down.
The second theory is that Kelly hampered the team as general manager, rather than as coach. Kelly got personnel control before the 2015 season, and doled out some hefty contracts—overpaying for Byron Maxwell and DeMarco Murray, while letting players like Jeremy Maclin, DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy depart. He also traded Nick Foles and multiple draft picks for Sam Bradford, an often-injured quarterback who isn’t a perfect fit for Kelly’s scheme, anyway. The theory holds that Kelly’s poor decision-making process when acquiring players hampered the ability of Kelly the coach to perform on the field.
In reality, it’s likely a combination of both, as well as standard issues such as regression to the mean and poor luck, that caused the Eagles’ flop this season, but I’ll put more weight on the general manager scenario. The poor choices Kelly made in player acquisition should not entirely overshadow the achievements he had on the field when his players were being picked by Howie Roseman.
In San Francisco, Kelly will not have personnel control—at least for the moment. Whether Trent Baalke can target the right players for Kelly’s scheme is an open question, as well as what will happen the first time Baalke and Kelly collide on players, which is bound to happen sooner rather than later, are open questions. However, Kelly the coach has done enough that it’s worth giving him another shot with an NFL franchise.
Question Two: Is Colin Kaepernick His Quarterback?
The Kaepernick question has defined the 49ers for years now, dating back to the Alex Smith trade in 2013. The 49ers need to decide on a direction at quarterback—be it Kaepernick, Blaine Gabbert, a free agent or a high draft pick.
Kelly has said before that he doesn’t need a rushing quarterback to run his offenses, but the facts on paper seem to contradict him somewhat. Obviously, at Oregon he had the mobile and dangerous Marcus Mariota, and before that dual-threat quarterbacks like Dennis Dixon, Jeremiah Masoli and Darron Thomas. In Philadelphia, Kelly’s offenses average nearly a full yard per play more when Michael Vick was under center, as opposed to the statuesque Bradford or Nick Foles.
Kelly’s system values mobility. It sprinkles in option runs, even with Bradford under center, and highly rewards quarterbacks who can make quick decisions on their feet—reading the end to decide to keep the ball or pitch it outside. These are all elements that Kaepernick has shown in the past.
It also, however, requires very good short- and medium-range accuracy, which has not been Kaepernick’s strong suit. He also hasn’t been good at complex reads, though his reputation as a “one-read quarterback” has been overstated.
Still, Kaepernick will be the most-talented quarterback Kelly has had in the NFL—which may be why he reportedly was trying to figure out a way to bring Kaepernick with him to his next stop, wherever it was.
Can Kelly tailor his offense to Kaepernick’s strengths? If he can return Kaepernick to the point he was at in 2013, then that’s a huge boon for the team; they can use their first-round pick on an offensive lineman or talented receiver if they assume that a quarterback already on the roster will start in 2016, and then use a mid-round pick on a developmental quarterback like Dak Prescott.
Of course, Kaepernick could crash and burn; he hasn’t been a solid starting quarterback for two years, be it due to injuries, regression or poor offensive schemes. If Kelly ties his fate to Kaepernick, he has to turn the quarterback around quickly.
Question Three: Can Kelly Co-Exist with Other Human Beings?
Kelly doesn’t leave Philadelphia with the strongest reputation. Several former players and coaches, most notably LeSean McCoy, Brandon Boykin and Tra Thomas, cited Kelly as being uncomfortable among black players, up to the point of being outright racist.
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Other players disagreed with the racism accusations, instead pointing out that Kelly is a “tyrant” who insists people follow his agenda, viewing players as commodities instead of building relationships with them. It’s a complete 180 from Tomsula’s style of management.
Kelly is very much not a “player’s coach”, and that tends to work out fine…as long as success comes. However, as soon as losses start to pile up, that rubs players the wrong way and generates friction, which can lead to revolts in the locker room. Kelly’s poor relationship with Eagles players factored into Philadelphia’s decision to release him, according to Eagles’ owner Jeff Lurie.
He also has had his conflicts with the front office, eventually winning a power struggle to become general manager of the Eagles. That won’t happen in San Francisco any time soon; Trent Baalke has been in a few power struggles of his known and has always come out on top.
Lurie attacked Kelly during the press conference announcing Kelly’s firing, saying that the next coach needs a higher level of “emotional intelligence”. Kelly has not yet shown an ability to gel with a diverse locker room and front office staff—even Jim Harbaugh, as volatile as he could be, could develop relationships with his players, even if his overwhelming intensity eventually soured enough relationships to the point where he was released.
Has Kelly learned anything from his firing? It’s highly unlikely he’ll turn over a new leaf overnight and become a player-friendly, buddy-buddy coach, especially after being out of work for less than a month. How will he react when Baalke takes one of his character-risks in the draft, like Aaron Lynch was? How will he convince the 49ers’ locker room that he views them as more than cogs in a scheme, and that he can accept a wide variety of cultural backgrounds and life experiences—that he’s not, to put it bluntly, racist? He values that a strong culture in his locker room, which means he needs players to buy in, which means he needs to get their trust. Is that something he’s going to be able to do, considering the disgruntled wake he leaves behind him in Philadelphia?
Question Four: Wait, Haven’t We Seen This Before?
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. After a coach with no coordinator experience but respect in the locker room failed to get successful results out of the roster, the 49ers turned to a coach from the Pac-12, with a great track record of success and a blustery attitude.
When the 49ers did this in 2010, replacing Mike Singletary with Jim Harbaugh, the 49ers got three very successful season, an average one, and a messy divorce. Kelly is just as highly-touted, and just as difficult to work with, as Harbaugh was—why should the eventual outcome be any different? What does Kelly—and Jed York and Trent Baalke—have in mind to prevent the same acrimonious falling-out and self-destruction that the Harbaugh era held?
More to the point, what does York and Baalke see that will make this tenure different? Moving on from Jim Harbaugh after rumored backroom power struggles and an inability to be a team player indicates that they would look for more stable situations in the future, hence the hiring of team-man Jim Tomsula. Kelly, on the other hand, just came out of a contentious situation on Philadelphia; he’s not the kind to just serve as a yes-man to whatever York and Baalke have to say. Isn’t the hiring of Kelly an admission a return to the Harbaugh paradigm, thus once again raising the question of why Harbaugh was fired in the first place?
On the other hand, a return to the Harbaugh era doesn’t sound half bad if you’re not part of 49ers ownership. With three consecutive NFC Championship Game appearances, as well as a trip to the Super Bowl, Harbaugh carved his face onto the proverbial Mount Rushmore of 49ers head coaches, alongside Bill Walsh, George Seifert and Buck Shaw. While that eventually flamed out and crashed, there were plenty of good times along the way—and perhaps, the 49ers need to take that sort of risk if they want to be relevant again.
Kelly is a far cry from a guaranteed success in San Francisco. No head coach ever is, but Kelly has perhaps the highest ceiling and lowest floor of any of San Francisco’s candidates this year. Unlike the last coaching search, it doesn’t feel like this one is doomed to failure from the start—but it does feel like both grand success and utter failure seem to be very plausible scenarios going forward.
One thing’s for sure—the Chip Kelly era is going to be interesting.
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Bryan Knowles is a staff writer on Niner Noise. Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.