Identifying 49ers’ Weakest Position Heading into 2016 Offseason
The San Francisco 49ers have no more pressing need than their offensive line. What went wrong, and how can they fix it?
The San Francisco 49ers aren’t entirely devoid of talent, but they have holes all over the roster. Quarterback is an obvious one, with both Colin Kaepernick and Blaine Gabbert struggling in 2015. Wide receiver is another troublesome spot, as Anquan Boldin is not under contract and neither Quinton Patton nor Bruce Ellington has exactly exploded onto the scene. Ian Williams is headed to free agency on the defensive line, they could use an inside linebacker to go across from NaVorro Bowman—the list goes on.
However, until the 49ers improve their offensive line, they will remain in the bottom half of the NFL. For the second consecutive year, their offensive line had difficulty keeping their quarterbacks upright and opening holes for the running game, and was a major contributing factor to the 49ers’ struggles offensively this season. It doesn’t mat
ter if the new head coach can revitalize Colin Kaepernick’s career, can turn Blaine Gabbert from bust to starter or can get the most out of a high draft choice; without an offensive line in front of them, the 49ers will continue to struggle.
The Numbers
Let’s look at the numbers, first and foremost. San Francisco allowed 53 sacks in 2015, one shy of the NFL lead. Last year, they were microscopically better, allowing 52 sacks. Both are fit in the top-five worst seasons in franchise history. Some of that is due to the increased emphasis on passing in the modern game compared to, say, the 1970s. Some of that is due to quarterback play, with Kaepernick in particular running into a sack every other game or so. However, when you’re nearly leading the league in back-to-back seasons, there are holes on the offensive line.
They haven’t been much better opening holes in the running game. The 49ers ranked 20th in the league last year with 4.0 yards per rushing attempt, but when you take a look at how those runs actually were distributed, it paints a grimmer picture.
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Only three teams had more rushes go for two or fewer yards: Denver, Tennessee and Jacksonville. A full 45.5 percent of the time the 49ers lined up to run the ball, they were tackled around the original line of scrimmage—that’s very poor. According to Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards, which seeks to give the offensive line more credit for yards gained at the line of scrimmage as opposed to plays broken deep into the secondary, the 49ers’ offensive line was dead last in the NFL this past season.
The Personnel
Unlike the pass protection, that’s a stat that fell off dramatically this past season—Football Outsiders had the run blocking ranked 10th last year. Part of that can be blamed on the departure of Mike Iupati in free agency—Iupati has never been a good pass blocker, but is one of the best run-blocking guards in football. Replacing him makes sense if you were going to bring in a more balanced guard, exchanging some run-blocking prowess for some pass-blocking success, but that wasn’t the case for San Francisco last year.
Instead, Iupati’s primary replacement was Jordan Devey. More precisely, it was Alex Boone, moving from the right to the left, but Devey got the spot opened up on the line when Iupati went to Arizona in free agency. Devey did provide the expected dropoff in run blocking from Iupati, but also was substantially worse in pass protection as well. It turns out, there may have been a reason the New England Patriots were willing to trade Devey away; he was clearly not a starting-caliber player this season. The decision to continuously start Devey over Andrew Tiller is one of many reasons Jim Tomsula is looking for a new job at this point in time.
Trent Baalke and the front office can also be blamed for the plan to have Devey replace Iupati, but they’re less to blame for last year’s drop off at right tackle. Anthony Davis blindsided the team by opting to sit out the 2015 season on June 5th, well after both the draft and the crux of free agency. That left the 49ers with few alternatives outside of turning to Erik Pears, who was signed with the general idea of being a swing tackle and backup guard in a pinch—a versatile player, but not one you really want to have starting. Pears actually wasn’t much worse than Davis was when it came to pass protection, but it was another massive drop off when it came to run blocking. I’d blame the failure of the right side of the offensive line more on Devey than Pears, but Pears was significantly below average on his own.
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The center position also struggled as Marcus Martin had an abysmal sophomore season—if there was a negative version of the Pro Bowl squad, Martin would easily have made the roster at center. With Daniel Kilgore’s injury costing him most of the season, Martin was tabbed as the starting center, and failed to live up to the potential that made him such a promising third-round pick in 2014. He was acceptable, if notably below average, in pass protection, but might have been the worst center in football when it came to winning battles off the line and pushing his defenders forward. With Martin, Devey and Pears on the right side of the line, the running game was dead in the water to begin with.
Even the two stalwarts on the line had down years. Joe Staley was definitely a bright spot on the team as a whole, but his fifth Pro Bowl selection was probably not warranted. Alex Boone also took a step back—he was still solid in pass protection, but had arguably his worst season in run defense.
So, that’s the scope of the problem. How do the 49ers even go about fixing it?
The Fix
Obviously, something as complex as the offensive line isn’t going to be an easy fix, but there are three basic methods the 49ers can use—and they’ll likely want to use all three in some combination.
The first is getting improved play from the players already on the roster. Joe Staley, who will be 32 when next season kicks off, probably will not be the starting left tackle for the 49ers next Super Bowl team, but remains an upper-class talent at the position. With the 49ers being well clear of the salary cap, and Staley’s contract being unwieldy to move at the moment anyway, he’ll be penciled in as his normal very good self on the left side. Daniel Kilgore will be back from injury as well; he didn’t look spectacular in limited action at the end of the year, but he’ll have another full offseason to recover and should be healthy by the time the 2016 season rolls around, barring any setbacks.
The one starting offensive lineman we haven’t mentioned so far as Andrew Tiller, who did eventually wrest the job away from Jordan Devey. After a very strong preseason, Tiller came in and played at an above-average level at right guard, especially as he received more playing time as the season progressed. He got some time at left guard too, when Alex Boone went down at the end of the year, but didn’t look as sharp. It’s hard to tell if that was a sample size issue, a factor of the relatively tough defenses the 49ers played over the last three weeks or an issue with his technique. Whatever the case, Tiller looked sharp on the right side, should have been starting there from day one, and will likely be a significant improvement if given the chance to start the full season in 2016.
Staley and Tiller can be two-fifths of an improved starting offensive line. Add in a healthy Kilgore at center, and things are beginning to look up just with players currently on the roster. They also have some depth options—Erik Pears is a much better fit as a veteran option off the bench, and rookie Trent Brown showed some signs of promise late in the season.
It’s also too early to give up entirely on Marcus Martin, as he’ll only be 22 at the start of 2016. Perhaps moving him back to his college position of guard would be beneficial, as would letting him build up his strength as a backup rather than throwing him into the fire every week. Similarly, we’ve yet to see Brandon Thomas, the promising developmental player who hasn’t seen any game action after blowing out his knee in the run-up to the 2014 draft. It is disappointing that he didn’t get any time on the field this year, but considering the other poor personnel choices Jim Tomsula’s staff made, I’m not willing to entirely write Thomas off quite yet.
The second method is acquiring or retaining players via free agency. Alex Boone is a free agent, and it may be questionable whether or not he’ll want to stick around on a rebuilding 49ers team, especially after he’s had some contentious contract negotiations with the club in the past. That will probably come down to a meeting with the new head coach and how Boone feels about the new power structure in place. Either way, the 49ers shouldn’t overpay for Boone’s services—he’s an above average guard, but not an elite one who can be expected to make the Pro Bowl
every season. If they can sign him to a three-to-five year deal in the neighborhood of $6 million a year, then they should bring him back.
If, however, Boone wants to hold out for more money, the 49ers might be better served to get into a bidding war for Kelechi Osemele from Baltimore. He’s played both guard and tackle, and has succeeded in both positions. If the 49ers are going to pay $8 million a year for a guard, I think Osemele would be a better value. It’s a little out of Baalke’s usual range to bring in a high-priced free agent, but he broke that streak last offseason with the signing of Torrey Smith, so we could see a similar move here.
The right tackle position may be shored up by the return of Anthony Davis, though I’d be wary about fully trusting a player who just missed an entire season without having a solid plan B in place. It’s probably not a good use of resources for the 49ers to get into a bidding war for someone like Cleveland’s Mitchell Schwartz, but Jeff Allen in Kansas City might be a name to keep an eye on.
Finally, there’s the draft. With double-digit draft picks in the 2016 draft, the 49ers have a number of options.
While I think that the offensive line is the most pressing need, that does not necessarily mean that offensive line needs to be their first overall pick. There is more depth available deeper in the draft at offensive line than quarterback. However, if they did choose to use their first pick on the offensive line—say, if both quarterbacks Jared Goff and Paxton Lynch have been drafted and defensive lineman Joey Bosa is also off the board—they could go with a future left tackle. Laremy Tunsil of Ole Miss and Ronnie Stanley of Notre Dame could easily go in the top ten. If the 49ers were in pressing need of a left tackle, the first-round pick would make a ton of sense.
However, the 49ers really are more in the market for a right tackle or interior lineman. While there’s nothing stopping the 49ers from taking Tunsil or Stanley and simply having them play on the right while Staley is still around, it may make more sense to use a later pick on a lineman.
In the second round, the 49ers could target an offensive tackle like Germain Ifedi from Texas A&M, or a top guard like Cody Whitehair from Kansas State or Vadal Alexander of LSU. Waiting until the third round could see a guard like North Carolina’s Landon Turner or Baylor’s Spencer Drago, or possibly center Nick Martin from Notre Dame, fall to the 49ers.
The draft strategy is going to depend in a large part on what the 49ers do in free agency and how comfortable they feel with Davis at right tackle after missing a year. If they want to find a right tackle, they should really make a move in one of the first two rounds, while solid guard prospects can be found later on day two or even early on day three, if necessary. The new coaching staff will have some options—they could even go first-round tackle and hope to grab a quarterback like Carson Wentz of North Dakota State at the top of round two.
Either way, the 49ers have the potential on roster, the cap room for free agency and the draft picks to fix their offensive line this offseason. More than any other position group, that’s where they should focus their resources. They need at least three new starters—and possibly four, if Alex Boone leaves in free agency. That’s a massive rebuilding project, but the 49ers do have the resources to address the issue in one offseason, as long as they have a focused and well-thought out plan.
Next: How Desirable is the 49ers' Coaching Position?
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Bryan Knowles is a staff writer on Niner Noise. Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.