These 4 factors will dampen 49ers' Super Bowl chances over the course of 2024
By Peter Panacy
The 49ers are a top favorite to win the Super Bowl this season, but there are some negative elements that could stand in the way of a Lombardi Trophy.
History suggests the San Francisco 49ers will have an awfully tough time getting back to the Super Bowl this season after losing it last February.
In fact, in the entire history of the Super Bowl era, only three Super Bowl-losing teams have come back and won the big game the following season, most recently, the 2018 New England Patriots.
Niners fans found this out the hard way back in 2020 after their team lost a Super Bowl (for the first time) to the Kansas City Chiefs, which prompted hopes of a "revenge tour" yet saw San Francisco limp to a 6-10 last-place finish.
Hopefully, history won't repeat itself. Especially considering nearly the entire championship-caliber roster from last season remains intact.
But, if the 49ers do fall short, at least one of these pitfalls will likely be responsible.
No. 1: Penalties (especially the pre-snap variety)
Good teams rarely beat themselves. Yet a team prone to committing penalties frequently can fall victim to either an early postseason exit or missing the playoffs entirely.
A year ago, the Niners were tied for 11th most penalties in the league with 101 infractions, but they nevertheless had the talent and coaching to reach the Super Bowl.
However, understanding the intricate and complex nature of head coach Kyle Shanahan's offense, which can (and often does) lead to illegal formations and false starts, it's fair to be concerned about penalties plaguing San Francisco yet again in 2024.
Especially with reports about the league emphasizing illegal-formation penalties this season.
No. 2: The injury bug
Back to 2020 again. That year, injuries decimated the 49ers roster on both sides of the ball, and the Niners were the clear-cut leaders in game days missed, particularly from their starters.
While injuries are unavoidable, San Francisco mostly dodged the hard-hitting, long-term injuries last season, the only substantial losses being to safety Talanoa Hufanga (ACL) and a lengthy absence of now-Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackle Arik Armstead.
If the proverbial pendulum swings back the other way, especially in light of the 49ers having played so many postseason games the last three years, another injury-riddled Niners team may find itself on the outside of the playoff picture like it did back in 2020.
No. 3: Poor tackling
Tackling, rather the lack thereof, became something of a trendy concern for San Francisco during the preseason, and Pro Football Focus reinforced this by giving Shanahan's squad a lowly 38.2 team tackling grade over the three-game exhibition period, third worst in the NFL.
While it's not entirely a panic-worthy piece of evidence, as the 49ers have historically not engaged in live tackles during training camp, it is something to monitor over the course of the season.
Related story: 49ers predictions for 2024: Division finish, number of wins, playoffs
Particularly with surefire tacklers like Armstead gone and linebacker Dre Greenlaw sidelined because of an Achilles tear suffered last February.
No. 4: Run defense as a whole
If there is a concrete worry that could be problematic for the Niners over the course of 2024, it's the run defense.
Despite boasting one of the NFL's top defenses a year ago, San Francisco nevertheless allowed an average of 4.1 yards per rush, which ranked 14th in the league and nowhere close to what one would think a star-studded 49ers cast of defenders would produce.
Armstead's loss hurts, and the lack of run defense was evident in games where he was absent last year, too.
The hope is two of the Niners' offseason pickups, defensive tackles Maliek Collins and Jordan Elliott, will prevent interior runs from gaining too much traction.
But, with first-year defensive coordinator Nick Sorensen at the helm of this side of the ball, there could be a serious learning curve that could ultimately include yet another porous run defense that stands in the way of San Francisco's prospects to get back to the Super Bowl.
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