Would you believe that 49ers quarterback Trey Lance has better MVP odds than Brock Purdy? And the Niners are also expected to lead the NFL in comp picks next year, too.
It's not hard for both fans and analysts alike to feel the pulse around the San Francisco 49ers this offseason, one which points toward Brock Purdy being the team's starting quarterback this upcoming season and not the No. 3 overall pick from the 2021 NFL Draft, Trey Lance.
Lance, who has just four regular-season starts under his belt and missed most of last year with a broken ankle, has been the subject of trade speculation despite returning from his injury.
Purdy, meanwhile, is still recovering from offseason elbow surgery and could potentially miss the early parts of the regular season.
There's no doubting that Purdy has enjoyed more success at the NFL than Lance. After all, the former helped the Niners offense explode down the stretch last season, and he helped engineer that momentum all the way up to when he suffered that injury in the NFC Championship game against the Philadelphia Eagles.
That said, Purdy isn't the quarterback that oddsmakers are betting on to win the NFL MVP award this year.
Trey Lance has better MVP betting odds than Brock Purdy entering 2023
Right now, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow are tied for the favorite to win the league MVP award next season, according to BetMGM.
As far as San Francisco's quarterbacks, Lance is actually in the lead over Purdy at +2500, whereas the latter is +3000.
This could be a nice endorsement for Lance, of course, but it doesn't mean anything in terms of which quarterback ends up getting the not under center when both are fully healthy.
For those asking, Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo's MVP odds are +8000.
49ers poised to lead NFL in comp picks again in 2024
The 49ers have developed a nice little habit of generating compensatory picks for the NFL Draft.
This year, the Niners took home a league-high seven comp picks, some of which have come by the way of developing minority coaches and front-office executives who have gone on and taken bigger roles with other teams. This year alone, San Francisco lost Ran Carthon to the Tennessee Titans' general manager vacancy, and it also lost coordinator DeMeco Ryans to the Houston Texans' head-coaching job.
Both losses netted the 49ers more Round 3 comp picks, according to the Rooney Rule, and the Niners also suffered a net loss of qualifying free agents against those signed.
NFL.com's Lance Zierlein just broke down comp-pick predictions for each team heading into 2024 based on what he knows of the league's complex formula to determine such, and he has San Francisco receiving five picks, which would again be the most in the NFL, according to his predictions:
"The 49ers will receive the second of three third-rounders awarded for losing DeMeco Ryans (Texans head coach) and Ran Carthon (Titans GM) this offseason. The departure of Garoppolo was canceled out by the signing of [Javon] Hargrave, but the loss of [Mike] McGlinchey nets a third-rounder. If you are keeping track of the leaderboard for compensatory picks, the 49ers are the undisputed kings over the last two seasons with seven received in 2023 and five projected for 2024."
Six of the 11 picks the 49ers entered the 2023 NFL Draft with last April were compensatory. It sounds like a good chunk of the picks in 2024 will be, too.
49ers GM says Brock Purdy is close to throwing a football again
Speaking on KNBR 680 last week, general manager John Lynch revealed that Purdy is close to being able to throw a football again after undergoing the aforementioned surgery:
"He’s not out there throwing yet. That’s going to happen around week 12 (12 weeks after surgery), [which] is kind of the next inflection point. But he’s doing really good, doing everything that he can do. As you know, that’s just Brock’s personality, and it’s great to see him out here every day. I just got a report from the trainers. So week 12, that’s where he can actually go out, start lobbing a football. And according to the surgeon, you start getting a little better read on exactly where he’s at right about then."
While this sounds optimistic, the reality is "lobbing a football" is vastly different than being able to throw a football in a game-type of situation. The arm strength needs to be built up, and there are still some risks of further damage, which Lynch alluded to.
That said, given the recovery timeline that Purdy had entering his surgery, it appears everything is back on track.
It's hard to ask for anything more than that.