What are 49ers' chances of making the playoffs through 4 weeks?

After a 2-2 start to the season, the 49ers are still favored to make the playoffs, but their current spot in NFC seeding might surprise you.

Typically, it takes at least four weeks to get an idea of how the NFL will shake out. Bad teams are typically, well... bad. And they'll reveal as much at the first-quarter milepost marker of the season.

Meanwhile, there are usually surprises each year. Case in point, the undefeated Minnesota Vikings have shocked the league, as quarterback Sam Darnold has found some mojo and is hovering around the top of quarterbacking leaderboards amid the Norsemen's shocking ascent to the top of the NFC.

Then, there are the middling teams, including the 2-2 San Francisco 49ers, who were consensus favorites to make it back to the conference title game and likely represent the NFC in the Super Bowl again this year.

Luckily, the regular season doesn't end after four weeks. If it did, the Niners wouldn't be competing in postseason play.

NFC playoff picture after 4 weeks: 49ers missing the cut

San Francisco's Week 3 road loss to the Los Angeles Rams was brutal. Had the 49ers held on in the fourth quarter, they'd be at least in the thick of the Wild Card race within the conference's playoff picture.

Through four weeks, the Niners are on the outside, looking in:

1. Minnesota Vikings (4-0)+
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1)+
3. Washington Commanders (3-1)+
4. Seattle Seahawks (3-1)+
5. Detroit Lions (3-1)*
6. Atlanta Falcons (2-2)*
7. New Orleans Saints (2-2)*
8. Dallas Cowboys (2-2)
9. Philadelphia Eagles (2-2)
10. Green Bay Packers (2-2)
11. San Francisco 49ers (2-2)
12. Chicago Bears (2-2)
13. Arizona Cardinals (1-3)
14. Los Angeles Rams (1-3)
15. Carolina Panthers (1-3)
16. New York Giants (1-3)

+ denotes division leader
* denotes Wild Card team

Related story: NFL tiebreaker rules: How are ties decided in division, playoff standings?

Currently the 11th seed, San Francisco would be out of the postseason if it was to begin today.

Fortunately, the season is a mere quarter in the books, and one single victory would propel the 49ers up the standings.

What are the 49ers' chances of making the playoffs, the Super Bowl?

Despite the sluggish start to 2024, the Niners are still in an excellent position to get into the playoffs.

According to ESPN's four-week analysis on playoff chances for each team, San Francisco boasts a 72-percent chance of making the postseason, and it has a 58-percent chance of winning the NFC West outright.

This probably accounts for the likelihood of a number of injured stars poised to return this season, including linebacker Dre Greenlaw and All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey, who have yet to play in 2024.

That said, ESPN isn't entirely sure the 49ers are clear-cut favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

The Niners' odds here are 16 percent, which is tied with both the Vikings and Lions for tops within the conference but not the runaway kind of chances many initially predicted earlier during the offseason.

Still, all it would take is a simple three- or four-game win streak over the second quarter of 2024 action to put San Francisco toward the top in both NFC standings and postseason odds.

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