2025 might've been something of an anomaly for the banged-up San Francisco 49ers.
Typically, when teams lose their starting quarterbacks for at least half a season, said season winds up in the tank. Yet the Niners managed to overcome not only losing Brock Purdy for eight games but also a littany of other injuries on both sides of the ball, finishing with 12 regular-season wins and even pulling off a Wild Card victory over the Philadelphia Eagles in the playoffs.
Expecting a similar outcome, should injuries pile up again in 2026, is probably unreasonable.
San Francisco's extensive history with injuries doesn't bode well for a roster core that's on the older side, in comparison to the rest of the league, meaning health will ultimately be a crucial determining factor in how well head coach Kyle Shanahan's squad fares this upcoming season.
And there's one easy-to-evaluate metric that might say it all, in terms of how well things go for the 49ers in 2026.
Adjusted games lost will inevitably determine 49ers' fate in 2026
Aaron Schatz, formerly of Football Outsiders and now with FTN Fantasy, has a metric called "adjusted games lost," which not only accounts for players missing a full game but also portions of games, due to injuries and other setbacks.
Schatz's analysis for 2025 revealed a painful truth about the Niners that reinforced their lengthy concerns about injuries, but it also gives Shanahan and then-defensive coordinator Robert Saleh plenty of credit in a roundabout way for helping San Francisco overcome those setbacks en route to the postseason.
The 49ers ranked 27th in AGL (No. 1 would be the best ranking, in terms of injuries) and was the only team in the NFC that made the playoffs despite being in the worst six in AGL—one of only two teams in the entire league to make the postseason of said group, the other being the Houston Texans (28th).
Expecting a similar outcome again, should the Niners suffer another rash of injuries, likely leads to disappointment, especially if San Francisco loses one of its cornerstone stars, such as injury-prone players like running back Christian McCaffrey or left tackle Trent Williams.
Putting it bluntly, if the 49ers' AGL for 2026 is bad once again, the end result probably won't replicate last year's unfathomable success.
Even more bluntly, the Niners better hope they stay healthy for a change.
Add us as a preferred source on Google