All eyes in the NFL world were on the Pacific Northwest on Thursday night for the primetime showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams, and nobody was watching more intently than the San Francisco 49ers. And what a showdown this crucial NFC West battle turned out to be.
For the Niners, it was in their best interest if Seattle emerged victorious in this Week 16 opener. But early in the fourth quarter, that didn't look like it was going to happen, as the Rams took a 30-14 lead after Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua hooked up for a 1-yard touchdown a little less than 90 seconds into the final frame.
But after a 58-yard punt return touchdown from Rashid Shaheed and a two-point conversion, a quick three-and-out stop by the Seattle defense, an even quicker two-play drive that resulted in a 26-yard touchdown pass from Sam Darnold to AJ Barner, and the wildest two-point conversion you'll ever see, the score was suddenly 30-30 with 6:23 to play and remained as such at the end of regulation.
The Rams got the ball first in overtime and took a 37-30 lead after Stafford and Nakua hooked up for their second touchdown of the night, this one going for 41 yards. But the Seahawks came right back, as Darnold hit Jaxon Smith-Njigba with a 4-yard TD pass. And the moment Darnold connected with Eric Saubert for yet another two-point conversion, the Seahawks took control of first place in the NFC West and the No. 1 seed in the conference with a 38-37 victory.
And again, this is exactly the outcome the 49ers needed.
The 49ers now control their own destiny in both the NFC West and in the race for the No. 1 seed
Here's how the NFC playoff picture shakes out heading into the remainder of the Week 16 schedule.
Updated NFC playoff picture
- Seattle Seahawks (12-3, 1st NFC West)
- Chicago Bears (10-4, 1st NFC North)
- Philadelphia Eagles (9-5, 1st NFC East)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7, 1st NFC South)
- Los Angeles Rams (11-4, 2nd NFC West)
- San Francisco 49ers (10-4, 3rd NFC West)
- Green Bay Packers (9-4-1, 2nd NFC North)
- Detroit Lions (8-6, 3rd NFC North)
- Carolina Panthers (7-7, 2nd NFC South)
- Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1, 2nd NFC East)
With the Seattle victory, San Francisco now controls its own destiny down the stretch, both in the race for the NFC West and in the race for the No. 1 seed. This would not have been the case had the Rams won on Thursday night.
So, it really is quite simple from here. If the 49ers take care of the Colts this Monday night, then beat the Bears in Week 17, and close the season by completing the season sweep of the Seahawks, they'll win the division and earn a first-round bye in the postseason as the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
And this is why.
If the 49ers win out, they'll obviously finish the season at 13-4, as would the Rams if they close the season with victories over the Falcons and Cardinals. And if the Seahawks win in Week 17 against the Panthers and lose to San Francisco in Week 18, they'd finish 13-4 as well.
When three clubs are involved in a division race, the first tiebreaker is the best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs. And in the above scenario, the 49ers would be 3-1, the Rams would be 2-2, and the Seahawks would be 1-3. So, that's how San Francisco takes the NFC West.
As far as the No. 1 seed is concerned, the only other team outside of the West right now that can get to 13 wins is the Bears. But that wouldn't be possible if the 49ers beat them in Week 17, would it? So, that's how San Francisco wins the conference.
If the Niners, who can clinch their spot in the playoffs with a win over the Colts on Monday or if the Lions to the Steelers on Sunday, lose one of their final three games, things obviously change. But for now, this is exactly where they want to be heading into the homestretch.