3 concrete reasons why 49ers defeat the Buccaneers in Week 10

The 49ers should handle their business (and then some) in Week 10 on the road against the Buccaneers. Here's why.

The San Francisco 49ers have won four of their last five games coming off a bye week.

When the Niners travel to take on the 4-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 10, that number should improve to 5-1.

Head coach Kyle Shanahan's squad has endured plenty of obstacles and challenges this season, not just limited to injuries and inconsistent efforts on all three phases of the game. But, having gone through sluggish first halves before before surging in the latter half of a season, San Francisco can use it's post-Week 9 bye break as a means to get right back into the thick of the playoff picture.

Despite the many challenges the Bucs offer, the 49ers should easily win this game despite it being an East Coast road trip and an early 10 a.m. PT kickoff.

Here's why.

No. 1: Rest factor favors 49ers... by a lot

The Niners have been at a rest disadvantage for much of the season, frequently playing teams either coming off a bye or having last played the previous Thursday night to a degree larger than the remaining 31 squads.

Week 10, however, is fully in favor of San Francisco.

The 49ers had the extra week off, meaning two full weeks of rest, recovery and preparation in advance of Sunday's contest. That alone should negate any effects of easterly travel.

Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is playing on a short week. Not only did it lose to the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football in Week 9, but that game went into overtime, further taxing the players and cutting into the rest and recovery period.

Clear advantage: San Francisco.

No. 2: Buccaneers' defensive weakness plays into 49ers' top offensive advantage

The 49ers offense versus the Buccaneers defense isn't going to be a case of an "unstoppable force versus an immovable object."

If anything, that object is very movable, especially in terms of what the Niners like to do, offensively.

Our friend, Luis Sanchez over at Sports Illustrated, compiled the data and did the research, focusing on why Shanahan's preference of 21 personnel gives San Francisco a tremendous advantage over the Bucs this Sunday:

"That strength of the 49ers is their usage of 21 personnel (two running backs, one tight end). They've used it on a league-high 39.5 percent of snaps this season, per Next Gen Stats.

The 49ers have averaged 7.2 yards per play out of 21 personnel, their most in a season during the Kyle Shanahan era (since 2017). The Buccaneers have matched 21 personnel with their base defense (four defensive backs) on 65.9 percent of plays this season, slightly more often than the league average (62.6 percent).

They've allowed 212 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries faced when the opposing offense has used 21 personnel this season. It has translated to 8.8 yards per carry, the most in the NFL. So, the 49ers don't have to change anything with their offense. It's like fitting a negative with a positive."

Overall, Tampa Bay owns the fifth-worst scoring defense and the third-worst yardage defense in the league through nine weeks.

Provided the 49ers don't hurt themselves by way of turnovers or penalties, this should be a one-sided matchup.

No. 3: The Christian McCaffrey factor

In what might be the worst-guarded secret the Niners have going right now, All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey seems poised to make his 2024 debut after sitting out the first half of the season with Achilles issues.

Shanahan hasn't committed to McCaffrey playing, but all signs point to that happening.

Related story: How to watch 49ers vs. Buccaneers with and without cable TV

The Niners averaged 6.5 yards per play without McCaffrey and own the league's No. 2-ranked yardage offense, so his injury absence hasn't entirely been a detriment. But where San Francisco has struggled this season has been in the red zone, scoring touchdowns just 48.6 percent of the time, good for 28th in the NFL entering Week 10.

McCaffrey, along with his dual-threat capabilities, is likely the final "missing piece" to this puzzle, which looks to take advantage against a subpar Buccaneers red-zone defense that's surrendering touchdowns 60 percent of the time in this portion of the field.

The Niners and Bucs kick off on Sunday, Nov. 10 at 1 p.m. ET from Raymond James Stadium.

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