49ers' chances of securing No. 1 seed in NFC are all but dead after Week 9

The 49ers still have a solid chance of winning the NFC West after nine weeks, but one can pretty much forget about the top seed in the conference.

The San Francisco 49ers are almost assured of playing on Wild Card weekend, assuming they're able to make the playoffs once the regular season is in the books.

The 4-4 Niners were idle in Week 9, enjoying a much-needed bye, yet the remaining slate of games across the NFC didn't exactly do head coach Kyle Shanahan's squad any favors. Within the NFC West, the Arizona Cardinals claimed the top spot by defeating the Chicago Bears, while the Los Angeles Rams moved into second place by beating the Seattle Seahawks, sending the Hawks to fourth in the division.

Meanwhile, San Francisco is squarely in third place within the NFC West and also on the outside, looking in with regard to the greater conference playoff picture.

Fortunately, the NFC West remains a hotly contested race with no one team running away with the division, and the 49ers get to play each divisional foe one more time in the second half of the year.

Unfortunately, it appears as if the Niners' chances to get red hot and secure the No. 1 seed in the entire conference have pretty much evaporated.

49ers' likelihood of claiming top NFC seed in playoffs is almost nil

During both recent Super Bowl trips under head coach Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco claimed the top seed in the conference, at the conclusion of the 2019 and 2023 seasons.

It doesn't appear that'll be the case in 2024, though.

The Detroit Lions, now 7-1 after defeating the Green Bay Packers in Week 9, still have a few two-win teams chasing their heels. But, according to ESPN, Detroit's chances of securing the No. 1 seed in the NFC are now at 56 percent. No other team in the running has a chance higher than 15 percent.

Meanwhile, way down the list, the 49ers' chances of securing the top seed in the conference and a first-round bye during Wild Card weekend are less than a percent.

So, simply put, there's a chance. But it's about as minimal as it gets, and it pretty much just means the Niners aren't mathematically eliminated from top-seed contention yet.

If there's good post-Week 9 news, it's San Francisco still has a reasonable chance of making the playoffs (40 percent) and is very much in the thick of things within the NFC West, a 33-percent chance of winning the division outright and at least securing one home game in the playoffs.

That's probably the route the 49ers will have to take this year, assuming they secure a postseason berth.

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