If you think Deebo Samuel's trade will ultimately hinder Brock Purdy, the numbers tell otherwise.
One of the many narratives surrounding San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is he's only a product of the all-star talent supporting him.
Well, the Niners just removed one of those talented pieces by trading away wide receiver Deebo Samuel, shipping him off to the Washington Commanders for a mere fifth-round draft pick.
For critics who are itching to see if Purdy will regress in light of a star player's departure, watching Samuel depart seems to be an absolute blessing. The 2021 All-Pro played a vital role in helping Purdy become a household name, right? Subtract Samuel, and Purdy will head to an inevitable decline, right?
Not exactly.
Purdy's 2024 campaign was a regression from 2023, yes. Although the latter year put Purdy in the MVP conversation, and it was going to be hard to sustain those efforts for another season, especially one in which San Francisco suffered all kinds of injury problems.
That said, there's enough data out there to suggest Purdy won't exactly fall apart because of Samuel's departure.
Brock Purdy performed just fine when missing 1 of 49ers' top stars
Pro Football Network compiled data that contrasted Purdy's efforts from when three of his best weapons -- Samuel, tight end George Kittle and wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk -- were all on the field at the same time in comparison to when at least one of them was missing.
The results are telling:
All 3 pass catchers on the field | 1 pass catcher missing | |
|---|---|---|
Dropbacks | 489 | 709 |
Yards per attempt | 8.5 | 9.2 |
EPA per dropback | 0.20 | 0.21 |
Success rate | 52% | 52% |
PFN ultimately concluded:
"Purdy has undeniably played with great pass catchers. Roughly 41% of his career attempts have come with all of George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel on the field. However, his numbers with all three on the field aren’t very different from his numbers when at least one is off the field."
Related story: 4 winners (and 2 losers) from 49ers' blockbuster trade of Deebo Samuel
Most of the numbers from last year stemmed as a result of Aiyuk's season-ending knee injury suffered just before the halfway point of the season.
But, there's further evidence to suggest Samuel wasn't going to be one of Purdy's main focal points.
In 2024, Samuel was targeted 81 times, hauling in 51 of those passes for 670 yards. In contrast, Kittle was targeted 13 more times and generated 78 receptions for 1,106 yards, while fellow wide receiver Jauan Jennings emerged as the quarterback's preferred choice, leading the 49ers with 113 total targets.
It appears as if Purdy was already moving off Samuel last season despite the latter still being available for 15 games.
Combined with PFN's assessment, it's logical to assume San Francisco's signal-caller will be just fine without Samuel in the building.