49ers must deny temptation to replace Deebo Samuel with a draft pick

The San Francisco 49ers have, probably, been thinking about this moment for some time.

While the decision to trade wide receiver Deebo Samuel only came mere days ago, as the team accepted a fifth-round draft choice from the Washington Commanders, the mood music had long suggested that Samuel might not have been long for the Niners' orbit.

Even if you go back as far as 2022, during the fractious negotiations for his big second contract, it seemed like Samuel could've always had one foot out of the door.

Trying to strangle members of the team's special teams unit, no matter how much they might have deserved it last season, also led to a feeling that a parting of the ways could be imminent.

So, you would certainly hope San Francisco's front office already asked itself the obvious: What now?

There's no doubt the 49ers will need to replace Samuel's snaps, if not production. On a base level, one would expect that to include more snaps for last year's first-round draft pick, wide receiver Ricky Pearsall, an increase in role for fellow receiver Jauan Jennings, whose emergence as quarterback Brock Purdy's favoured target in 2024 seemingly accelerated Samuel's departure, and a hopeful return to form from currently injured Brandon Aiyuk (if he's not traded).

There will, however, no doubt be some clamour for a direct replacement for Samuel, likely in the form of an NFL draft pick.

You can see why.

In general manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan's drafts since 2017, they've drafted a staggering 11 receivers, including two last season in the aforementioned Pearsall and fourth-rounder Jacob Cowing.

Why not add a 12th to that, and potentially fill the self-created hole in the roster?

Here's why.

49ers' track record of drafting receivers is... spotty

Here are those 11 drafted receivers:

1. Ricky Pearsall (R1, 2024)
2. Jacob Cowing (R4, 2024)
3. Ronnie Bell (R7, 2023)
4. Danny Gray (R3, 2022)
5. Brandon Aiyuk (R1, 2020)
6. Jauan Jennings (R7, 2020)
7. Deebo Samuel (R2, 2019)
8. Jalen Hurd (R3, 2019)
9. Dante Pettis (R2, 2018)
10. Richie James (R7, 2018)
11. Trent Taylor (R5, 2017)

Don't get me wrong, it's better than the running back drafting record. But of that list, only Samuel, Jennings and Aiyuk could feasibly be considered unqualified successes. That's easily offset by Gray, Hurd and Pettis, who were unmitigated disasters at relatively high pick numbers. After that, it's a grab bag of unproven (in the case of Pearsall and Cowing) or replacement-level (James, Taylor and Bell) players who haven't amounted to more than a blip on the radar.

While there are no doubt numerous potential replacements and Samuel-like players in the upcoming draft, the chances of the Niners hitting on one could, at best, be rated at 50 percent.

That'd be fine, of course, except for the fact that...

Kyle Shanahan doesn't trust young receivers

The irony of those three "unqualified successes" is that all of them had pretty long gestation periods with San Francisco. While Deebo did have an impact as a rookie, he flirted with Shanahan's infamous "doghouse" in 2020 over his fluctuating weight and arguably didn't hit his stride until midway through the 2021 season, when Samuel's sudden switch to "wide back" led to MVP-level form and almost gave the 49ers a fairytale run to a championship.

Aiyuk, meanwhile, infamously hit the doghouse in early 2021, only recording six catches for 58 yards and a touchdown in the first four games. He found himself splitting snaps with mediocre veterans like Trent Sherfield (remember him?) and Mohamed Sanu (nope, me neither), even while the offense was crying out for playmakers.

Jennings bounced on and off the roster until 2021, perhaps more understandably as a seventh-round pick, but he had to work extremely hard to find his role. It's arguably only because he turned third down into "3rd and Jauan" that Jennings was able to hang onto his role.

These aren't the only examples. While Pearsall's struggles for initial playing time were fair enough, especially considering the injuries he was dealing with throughout the early season after his shocking involvement in a local shooting, Cowing found himself spending almost his entire rookie season in witness protection. recording only four catches for 80 yards across his season.

That's in spite of some players (Bell being the standard-bearer) constantly letting the team down in front of him.

Shanahan seems to openly favour veterans, and while that's not unreasonable -- his offensive scheme is difficult to learn and requires precision in its route-running, not unlike his father's offense or that of Mike Shanahan's mentor, Bill Walsh -- it does essentially mean drafting receivers for immediate impact becomes a fool's errand.

Given the 49ers' Super Bowl window and desire to re-tool around quarterback Brock Purdy, replacing someone like Samuel's impact with a player who can't hit the ground running would be an utter waste of time.

Drafting someone who wouldn't make an instant impact is even more pointless when you consider...

49ers have a myriad of other NFL Draft needs

I know, I know, draft the best player available.

But, truly, that can't possibly end up being a receiver, certainly in the first round.

Looking at the roster, the following positions (in no particular order) could be reasonably described as bigger needs for the 49ers going into free agency and the draft:

• Offensive tackle: Trent Williams is 36 and entering the last few years of his career. Colton McKivitz is perpetually in the last few years of his career.
• Offensive guard: Aaron Banks is a free agent and unlikely to return. While Ben Bartch could step up into the left guard spot, beyond him and last year's rookie breakout star Dominick Puni, the line lacks depth.
• Center: A vital position in Shanahan's offense, and it's currently filled by a declining Jake Brendel.
• Defensive end: San Francisco still doesn't have a bookend to All-Pro pass-rusher Nick Bosa despite many, many attempts at finding one.
• Defensive tackle: Currently populated by a grab bag of decent NFL players but hasn't had an impact player in a while, thanks to the departures of DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead.

All of those aren't even counting linebacker, safety and cornerback, all of which could have various openings depending on the futures of free agents like Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga and Charvarius Ward, respectively.

It's really easy to make the argument that receiver might actually be one of the most stable positions on the 49ers roster, along with quarterback (where Purdy reigns supreme) and tight end (where George Kittle continues to produce at an All-Pro level).

It would be wasteful to draft a receiver particularly high in the draft, especially given Shanahan's aforementioned dislike of playing the younger players at the position.

In the mid-rounds? Well, that might be a possibility, especially if San Francisco looks to stock the position with more young talent.

But that wouldn't replicate Samuel's output, or anywhere near it, most likely.

So, who replaces Deebo Samuel?

The easiest way for the 49ers to replace Deebo is for Pearsall to continue to take a step forward and Jennings to continue to be the player he was in 2024.

Both of those things seem plausible and likely. I'm certainly intrigued to see Pearsall's impact on the offense after a year working with Purdy, particularly since his shiftiness and precise route-running gives the offense something it's been previously missing in between Aiyuk's speed and Samuel's brawn.

If the Niners do add someone at the position, one might expect a low-risk, high-reward free agent. It's probably not Davante Adams, unless he's willing to take a very large West Coast discount to play for San Francisco.

While it's hard to play armchair GM, and the 49ers have often pulled out a surprising move or two in March for unheralded (at least in the media) players, someone who'd be a B-level option to fill the void at X and Z levels.

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