With under two weeks until the 2026 NFL Draft, there's a good chance your opinion is solidifying on what position (if not necessarily which player) the San Francisco 49ers should be targeting.
As with most years in the recent past, there's a few options the Niners could go with, such as wide receiver, safety, or bolstering the offensive line, particularly as Trent Williams' contract dispute continues to linger.
One of the most popular choices, though, is one the 49ers have made a few times in the recent past: defensive line, or rather, edge rusher.
That's fair enough when you look at what could be available to the Niners at pick No. 27; among others, Miami's Akheem Mesidor, UCFs Malachi Lawrence and Texas A&Ms Cashius Howell could be available. Some even think Auburn's Keidric Faulk might be in the conversation.
However, after some time to reflect, I don't think the 49ers will take an edge in Round 1, and it's for a very simple reason.
History may be best indicator of the future, at least for one 49er
Cast your mind back 12 months to the drafting of Mykel Williams. While at no point has San Francisco hyped him as the second coming of Nick Bosa, it clearly had a lot of faith in Williams as a potential defensive cornerstone for the future, and still do. His ascending play during his rookie season prior to an ACL tear should have most fans optmistic that that will remain the case.
However, Williams' skill set is not likely to be as a game-wrecking pass-rusher. His run-stopping game is far more polished, and he projects more as a sturdy, edge-setting end capable of making occasional noise as part of a pass-rushing "team" rather than a singular dominant pass-rusher. That might be disappointing to some fans, but Williams could acually become a solid, multi-contract starter on the defensive line.
The player he reminds me of is Arik Armstead, and that's ironic because it dovetails almost exactly with my feelings on the 49ers defensive line I'll extoll in this piece.
Armstead, the 17th overall pick in 2015, never became a dominant pass-rusher himself, but he was a solid player of the run and capable of making pass-rush plays in the aggregate. That was particularly exemplified in 2019, when as part of a unit featuring the likes of Dee Ford, Nick Bosa, and DeForest Buckner, he registered 10 sacks.
What Armstead was more than anything, though, was a franchise cornerstone for almost a decade, producing average-to-above average play at a key spot, consistently, year upon year.
That seems to be a good projection for Williams' career with San Francisco.
Moreover, despite the addition of flashier pass-rushers over Armstead's tenure, like the aforementioned Ford and trade swings like Chase Young and Randy Gregory, Arsmtead was consistently in the starting four, when healthy, on the defense.
49ers are hiding their 2026 pass-rushing plans in plain sight
Which brings us to 2026.
I feel as though the 49ers have actually said this pretty widely and bluntly, but I don't think the fanbase has entirely picked it up. The more I've thought about it, it seems pretty clear their starting four is set, assuming no issues with injury recovery.
Bosa at one end spot, new acquisition Osa Odighizuwa at defensive tackle, partnered with Alfred Collins or C.J. West, and then Williams filling out the front four.
That, to me, signifies no first-round investment at the spot. The only time the 49ers would be subbing a different player onto the field at that point is in obvious passing downs or on third down, when Williams would move inside (again, like Armstead) and a more pure pass-rushing end would come in.
In the past, that's been Ford in the so-called "Nascar" package, or Young in late 2023. In other words, a rotational player, or pure pass-rusher, who can focus on nothing but getting after the quarterback. It's hard to imagine the 49ers investing first-round draft capital in a player playing this role, as there's no path to being on the field regularly enough to justify the investment.
Better, possibly, to find a future starter at receiver (where Mike Evans is on a short-term deal and aging) or on the offensive line (filling a hole at left guard, center, or, in the future, tackle) than drafting an edge who might only see the field for a handful of snaps per game.
That's not to say the 49ers don't need some depth here -- after Sam Okuayinonu and Keion White, the cupboard's bare in terms of pass-rushers -- but it makes more sense to find one or multiple developmental prospects in the mid-rounds, perhaps someone like Nadame Tucker at Western Michigan or Texas Tech's Romello Height, whom defensive line coach Kris Kocurek can develop into someone who can make an impact, like the laundry list of bottom-of-the-leaguers and retreads whose careers the Niners have revitalised in recent years.
In other words, finding the next Charles Omenihu, or Arden Key, or Ronald Blair.
That does mean the 49ers will have to draft better than they have at edge over the last decade. There've been a number of failures, most glaringly Drake Jackson and Ronnie Blair, but that's part of the challenge.
Of course, I could still be wrong, and San Francisco could instead plump for the next Aldon Smith, who could work his way in across multiple packages as a rookie before ascending to a full-time starter.
But, looking at the way the 49ers have constructed their team so far, I really don't think that's likely.
Adjust your first-round predictions as appropriate.