It's weird to think a third-place team has a legitimate shot at the top seed in the conference this late in the regular season, but that's precisely where the 10-4 San Francisco 49ers find themselves entering Week 16.
Still trailing both the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks by a game within the division, both with 11-3 records, the Niners nevertheless find themselves in the No. 6 seed in the greater NFC playoff picture, which is as follows (teams in bold are currently seeded for postseason play):
- Los Angeles Rams (11-3, 1st NFC West)
- Chicago Bears (10-4, 1st NFC North)
- Philadelphia Eagles (9-5, 1st NFC East)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7, 1st NFC South)
- Seattle Seahawks (11-3, 2nd NFC West)
- San Francisco 49ers (10-4, 3rd NFC West)
- Green Bay Packers (9-4-1, 2nd NFC North)
- Detroit Lions (8-6, 3rd NFC North)
- Carolina Panthers (7-7, 2nd NFC South)
- Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1, 2nd NFC East)
Needless to say, the NFC West is stacked, and one could argue the entire conference is set up for a wild finish over the final three weeks.
But, is it possible for San Francisco to leapfrog five teams ahead in the standings and emerge as the No. 1 seed?
It's not only possible. It's very possible.
49ers (almost) control their own destiny to No. 1 seed in NFL playoffs
For starters, the 49ers ideally win out over their next three games, beating the free-falling Indianapolis Colts on Monday Night Football in Week 16 before hosting both the Bears and Seahawks to close out the regular-season docket.
With one win over the Hawks already in hand from way back in Week 1, the Niners would hold the tiebreaker over their NFC West rivals from the Pacific Northwest by sweeping the season series.
Of course, by Monday, San Francisco will know the outcome of Seattle's much-anticipated showdown against LA on Thursday Night Football, which could alter the balance of power within the division and conference as a whole. Ideally, as weird as it might be, the 49ers will be pulling for a Seahawks win over Los Angeles, as it would add another game to the Rams' loss column, and the Niners would hold the tiebreaker versus LA, too, based on a better division record after splitting the season series against their in-state rivals.
Should Los Angeles win, San Francisco would be forced into the hope either the Arizona Cardinals or Atlanta Falcons pull off some sort of upset over the Rams, which isn't likely.
Not to be overlooked, the lurking Bears are also in hot pursuit of the top seed, but a win in a head-to-head Week 17 matchup would give the 49ers the tiebreaker there, too.
Simply put, the Niners have to win out while the Hawks beat the Rams on Thursday.