2020 NFL Draft: 49ers must grab Xavier McKinney if he falls to No. 31

The San Francisco 49ers could easily be looking for a top safety in the 2020 NFL Draft, and Alabama’s Xavier McKinney would be a prime target if he falls to No. 31 overall.

A lot will change for the San Francisco 49ers between now and the start of the 2020 NFL Draft in late April.

Chief among those potential changes is the future of veteran free safety Jimmie Ward, who’ll enter free agency for the second time in as many years. This time, however, Ward is coming off a career-best season and could easily command somewhere in the neighborhood of $8 million per year.

For the cash-strapped Niners, that price tag might be a bit too high for the team’s liking, even if the 49ers would like to bring him back.

With only a handful of likable options on the free-agent market, it wouldn’t be shocking to see San Francisco use one of its few picks on a top safety talent in the draft. The only problem, however, is general manager John Lynch is armed with just one pick, No. 31 overall, between Rounds 1 through 4. Barring a trade down, Lynch will either have to use that pick on a safety or hope to land an unheralded gem on day three, should this wind up being a position of priority.

But there is a possibility Lynch won’t trade down: Alabama safety Xavier McKinney falls to No. 31 overall.

This doesn’t seem feasible, of course. McKinney is widely viewed as college football’s top safety prospect this offseason. Yet in Niner Noise’s latest mock draft, using the ever-famous FanSpeak draft tool, McKinney ended up slipping into the middle stages of Round 2.

Granted, a FanSpeak simulation isn’t the best avenue to take. But it does open up the reality any given draft rarely goes the way most analysts and pundits think it will go.

And how many times have you thought “there’s no way Player X makes it to the second round,” only to see him fall into the 50s or 60s.

McKinney has first-round pedigree, for certain. He’s excellent in zone coverage, plays physical and has a knack for playmaking ability. Many a mock peg him to be a target somewhere in the teens, although a first-round push for quarterbacks — this seems to happen on a yearly basis — could ultimately drop McKinney down much further than initially projected.

Perhaps all the way to the end of Round 1.

This is potentially a situation where Lynch would be pressed into making a tough decision. Should he stay put at No. 31 and take McKinney if he’s somehow available? Or should Lynch pass on the chance, try trading down and hope either McKinney falls or another likable safety prospect winds up being within the 49ers’ grasp.

Considering how important free safety is in coordinator Robert Saleh’s defensive scheme, passing up on McKinney, if he’s there, would be a move Lynch can’t afford to make.