49ers trade-down mock scenario for the 2018 NFL Draft

Would the San Francisco 49ers want to trade down from No. 9 overall in the 2018 NFL Draft? If so, this particular scenario might be the way general manager John Lynch wants to go.

The way things stand now, the San Francisco 49ers will pick ninth overall in the 2018 NFL Draft, set to begin on Apr. 26.

With quarterbacks being a priority for a number of teams in this year’s draft, the Niners will assuredly have a choice for a top non-QB falling to them at their current spot.

But what if general manager John Lynch and Co. wish to trade down, not unlike his move from No. 2 to No. 3 a year ago?

San Francisco 49ers /

San Francisco 49ers

One way a trade-down would make sense is if Lynch moved the 49ers’ top pick to a team in need of a quarterback. The Buffalo Bills (No. 12 overall) and Arizona Cardinals (No. 15 overall) are two teams drafting behind San Francisco likely on the hunt for a top-echelon quarterback prospect. If Lynch wanted to, he could create something of a bidding war between these two teams to secure rights to the No. 9 pick.

How would he go about doing so?

Why Would the 49ers Want to Trade Down?

First, we have to establish why the Niners would want to move down in Round 1.

It’s not too hard to do. According to most NFL Draft experts, San Francisco will look at a defensive back with their first pick. But this year’s class of prospects is pretty deep at both cornerback and safety, meaning Lynch could get better value later on.

Not so deep is the cast of edge rushers. A year after the 49ers finished tied for 26th with 30 sacks, it’s likely San Francisco seeks out a quality outside pass-rusher. NC State’s Bradley Chubb is the consensus No. 1 EDGE in this year’s draft, but he won’t make it past the pass-rush-needy Indianapolis Colts (No. 6 overall) or Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No. 7 overall).

Up next would be University of Texas San Antonio’s Marcus Davenport or Boston College’s Harold Landry.

Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller has Davenport and Landry ranked Nos. 16 and 17, respectively, on his top-100 big board. Should the 49ers select either player at No. 9, the best value isn’t reached. The ideal scenario would be to trade down.

But with any trade, the other team would want to benefit too.

Why the Bills and Cardinals Want to Trade Up

Buffalo moved its starting quarterback, Tyrod Taylor, to the Cleveland Browns earlier this offseason. Despite picking up fellow QB A.J. McCarron later, it’s highly likely head coach Sean McDermott and Co. want another signal-caller to develop.

FOXBORO, MA – DECEMBER 24: Head coach Sean McDermott of the Buffalo Bills looks on during the second quarter of a game against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on December 24, 2017 in Foxboro, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images) /

Meanwhile, the Cardinals inked oft-injured quarterback Sam Bradford to a two-year deal this offseason. He might be a plausible stop-gap option. But having only played two full seasons (2010 and 2012) over his pro career, it’s not exactly a first-choice solution.

As many as five of the top quarterbacks in this year’s class could be taken before No. 9, leaving only a handful of upper-tier QBs available at the 49ers’ current spot. While moving up into the top five spots might be too expensive for either Buffalo or Arizona, targeting the ninth pick isn’t too much to ask.

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After all, the Colts, Buccaneers and Chicago Bears (No. 8 overall) won’t be grabbing a quarterback that early.

So, No. 9 it is.

49ers Convince the Bills to Trade Up

The Miami Dolphins (No. 11 overall) could be looking at a quarterback, possibly meaning the Bills’ first pick might not be enough to grab the QB they want.

Using Pro Football Talk’s NFL Draft pick value chart, it’s possible to determine the value of each pick in descending value. The value drops with each pick, meaning a trade-up would require roughly an equal value for a deal to succeed. It’s not an exact science and is influenced by supply and demand, but it sets a gauge.

The No. 9 pick holds a point value of 1,350 points, whereas the Bills’ top selection (No. 12) is worth 1,200 points. Any trade would require compensation worth at least 150 points to be made up. Buffalo’s second-round pick (No. 53 overall) holds a value of 370 points.

That’s not a bargain from the Bills’ standpoint, but here’s where the bidding war comes in. Arizona holds overall pick Nos. 47 and 79, which hold values of 430 and 195, respectively. The first would easily be enough to move up from the Cardinals’ No. 15 pick, while the second would miss by 55 points — constituting another mid-round selection as bonus compensation.

If Lynch can pitch this to Buffalo, the Bills’ second-round pick might be enough compensation to match.

So, here’s the plausible trade-down scenario:

The Bills benefit by getting a better shot at a quarterback, while moving only one of their two second-round picks. If Arizona offered a better package, sure, Lynch would go that direction. But with the Cardinals having just one pick in the round, a trade with the Bills seems more feasible.

Meanwhile, the Niners benefit from adding more value to a selection of Landry or Davenport, while tacking on a second pick in Round 2.

It’s a win-win for both sides, which is exactly what trades should be.

Next: 2018 NFL Draft: Two-round mock for all 32 teams across the league

With the draft set to kick off in a few weeks, we’ll see what moves Lynch engineers.