Reuben Foster: Best- and worst-case scenarios for 49ers linebacker in 2018
By Peter Panacy
The San Francisco 49ers are in a tricky situation with linebacker Reuben Foster after his second arrest this offseason. What are the best- and worst-case scenarios heading deeper into 2018?
San Francisco 49ers linebacker Reuben Foster was all the things that described him leading up to the 2017 NFL Draft.
On the field, tenacity and All-Pro potential. Off of it?
Well, Foster’s second arrest in less than a month’s time his first full offseason creates problems for the Niners. First, there was the charge of second-degree marijuana possession in January. This, followed by another arrest for alleged domestic violence and possession of an assault rifle.
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It’s a no-win situation for San Francisco.
The 49ers are waiting the process out instead of acting swiftly. They have time to make any decision and can afford to play the “wait and see” game as the legal process and parallel NFL investigation play out.
Still, there’s only a slim chance Foster’s 2018 campaign isn’t affected by his offseason actions.
Worst-Case Scenario for Reuben Foster and the 49ers
Patrick Hollway over at Niners Nation broke down why the Niners need to prepare for life without Foster this upcoming season. It’s a good read, detailing what one might expect for Foster.
It’s important to note the NFL and the legal system are two entirely different entities. Case in point, the Dallas Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliott was not charged for his domestic violence case last season. Yet the league still dished out a six-game suspension.
As Holloway pointed out, a six-game suspension has turned into a baseline for the league on first-time offenders. A lifetime ban can follow for second incidents.
The NFL’s previous gaffes on domestic violence issues (i.e. Ray Rice and Josh Brown) likely mean the league won’t hesitate to enact a strict punishment on Foster even if the Santa Clara District Attorney’s office chooses not to prosecute. Again, Elliott is a prime example.
Additionally, Foster’s first offseason arrest could easily lead to a one-game suspension by the league for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy. Clouding the issue was Foster’s diluted urine sample at the 2017 NFL Scouting Combine, which is looked at as a failed test.
Silly as that may be (I’ve administered such panel tests before, and it’s relatively easy to have a dilute sample), the rules are the rules.
Yet that’s not the worst-case scenario for Foster and the 49ers.
What would be is if the D.A.’s investigation revealed the allegations for domestic violence and illegal firearms possession warrant prosecution and, depending on the court process, conviction. Those can be filed as felonies, and the Niners would have little choice but to release their promising-but-problematic linebacker.
Best-Case Scenario for Reuben Foster and the 49ers
I spoke with friends of mine in law enforcement about these issues, and domestic violence cases can be very tricky to prove. California is a mandatory-arrest state when probable cause exists, so Foster’s arrest might easily be explained as such.
In Elliott’s case, there was photographic evidence as part of the investigation. The NFL’s subsequent investigation suggested three other incidents of abuse towards the same victim.
Foster’s case may not be as clear cut. It’s entirely possible no further legal course is taken, the domestic violence charges are tossed, the firearms charge dropped to a misdemeanor (or dropped altogether) and the NFL investigation isn’t able to turn anything up of note.
We simply don’t know.
What we do know, however, is the pattern of behavior is concerning.
Elliott’s back-and-forth suspension created a black eye for the league, so it’s entirely possible the NFL wants to be 100 percent sure of any conduct violations before dishing out suspensions. Such was the case with former 49ers cornerback Tramaine Brock, who was never suspended after a domestic violence arrest early in 2017.
Yet the Niners released him the day after.
Foster is a much bigger piece of San Francisco’s future, though. You can argue whether or not that’s the way to handle such incidents, but it’s the simple truth. Tolerance levels for off-field actions directly correspond to on-field talent.
For the 49ers, their hope is Foster winds up cleared, legally, for all infractions. And the subsequent league investigation offers up minimal punishment, if any.
More importantly, though, Foster’s off-field problems become a thing of the past.
What Likely Happens
Whether or not you think the 49ers should part ways with Foster at this point is up to you. Right now, we can pretty accurately gauge they won’t until investigations reveal more evidence.
It’s entirely possible the D.A. drops charges and the January marijuana arrest winds up being nothing more than a simple misdemeanor.
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All this is contingent on evidence, making speculation on a league-mandated suspension nearly impossible. But the pattern of bad decision-making on Foster’s part could play a role in the process.
In total, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Foster suspended seven games — one for the marijuana possession and the minimum six for domestic violence. For San Francisco, the situation could have been worse, provided the legal investigation shows little-to-no evidence. But the Niners could easily be without their star linebacker for a major portion of 2018.
Next: 5 insurance options for 49ers' Reuben Foster
Either way, it puts the 49ers into a precarious situation this offseason — one which they’ll likely need to consider some sort of contingency plan for either the best- or worst-case scenarios at hand.