How Alex Smith’s trade, contract with Redskins affects 49ers’ negotiations with Jimmy Garoppolo

The San Francisco 49ers and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo have yet to reach a long-term extension. And the blockbuster trade, between the Kansas City Chiefs and Washington Redskins for quarterback Alex Smith, complicates contract talks for the Niners even more.

Not long ago, Niner Noise came to the conclusion both the San Francisco 49ers and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo were waiting for the 2018 offseason market to settle a bit before reaching some sort of long-term extension.

Well, the market heated up on Tuesday.

First reported by the Kansas City Star’s Terez Paylor, the Kansas City Chiefs agreed to trade quarterback Alex Smith to the Washington Redskins in exchange for a third-round NFL Draft pick and cornerback Kendall Fuller — the latter reported by ESPN’s Adam Schefter and Field Yates.

Not long after this blockbuster trade went public, Schefter also reported on the four-year extension Smith would receive with his new team:

$23 million, on average, per year over the next four seasons.

This has two notable affects on contract talks between San Francisco and Garoppolo. Neither should be seen as too serious. After all, the Niners are laden with a league-leading $115,944,832 million in cap space, per Over the Cap. They have the money, and Garoppolo certainly appears to be the guy.

But here’s where things get a bit challenging.

Offseason Quarterback Market Heating Up, not Cooling Down

Smith to Washington all but pushes Kirk Cousins into the free-agent market.

A Cousins free-agent deal — one that could easily have been the biggest in the NFL — was already a major discussion piece a year ago at this time. Instead of broaching that question mark, the Redskins simply placed the franchise tag on him for the second year in a row.

Now, Cousins hits the open market. At 29 years old, he’ll have plenty of suitors.

As Niner Noise broke down earlier, both Smith and Cousins shake up what will happen in both free agency and the 2018 NFL Draft. According to Spotrac.com’s market value tool, Cousins will be worth in the range of a $25.6 million annual salary.

Related Story: How the Alex Smith trade shakes up Round 1 of the NFL Draft

But teams wanting to reach for a proven NFL veteran, not an unknown QB prospect, will likely bid that price tag up even higher. Especially if they have the cap space to do it.

And all that will do will drive the quarterback market higher than we’ve ever seen it before.

Good news for Garoppolo.

What Jimmy Garoppolo Will Want from the 49ers

We already have a bottom-floor deal Garoppolo won’t accept.

According to the ESPN Seth Wickersham report on the state of the New England Patriots, Garoppolo and his camp repeatedly turned down four-year extensions from the Pats in the range of $17 million to $18 million, annually, with promised increases if Garoppolo took over starting duties from Tom Brady.

So we know Garoppolo won’t go any less than around $19 million per year, and even that’s a stretch.

Smith’s $23.5 million per year likely pushes Garoppolo’s asking price even higher. After all, Smith is 33 years old and has never been viewed as a franchise quarterback. A good one, yes, even coming off arguably his best year — leading the NFL in passer rating in 2017 (104.7).

Cousins, while younger, is arguably in the same boat. He’s good, but not franchise elite. Looking at the buzz surrounding Garoppolo, he could ask for $27 million annually — the amount currently given to Detroit Lions QB Matthew Stafford, which is tops in the NFL — and would have reason to receive it.

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The 49ers can counter, though, pointing out how both Smith and Cousins have proven NFL track records. Garoppolo has seven starts.

But remember, NFL free agency isn’t only about performance versus cost. It’s all market value; the supply and demand of sports-contract negotiations.

We saw how much Garoppolo was in demand a year ago, eventually dwindling a bit to the 49ers pulling off the “steal” of the year.

With the quarterback market heating up, however, the Niners are going to have to pay up for their good fortune.

Next: Why contract talks with Jimmy Garoppolo are taking so long

And it’s not going to be cheap.