San Francisco 49ers: The best option for Jimmy Garoppolo 2018 contract
By Peter Panacy
The San Francisco 49ers enter 2018 with a need to re-sign or franchise tag quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. And there’s a smart way to go about doing it.
Without getting into the nitty gritty details, the San Francisco 49ers are a vastly superior team with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo under center.
Before Garoppolo took over starting duties in Week 13, the Niners were 1-10. From that point onward, they went 5-0 and have become one of the hotter non-playoff stories in the NFL.
Garoppolo is a free agent, his contract expiring after the 2017 season.
“We want Jimmy to be a Niner for a long, long time.” – 49ers GM John Lynch
To some, offering up a second-round pick for a player whose contract was ending might seem odd. But San Francisco used this pick to buy time to have exclusive negotiating rights with Garoppolo and to see whether or not he’d be an adequate fit for head coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense.
Based off the on-field results, Garoppolo is just that.
For those worried Garoppolo will hit the open market this offseason, worry not. He’ll be in a 49ers uniform in 2018. The only question is how.
“We want Jimmy to be a Niner for a long, long time,” Lynch said Tuesday, via NFL.com. “That process is going to take place here and we’re eager to get that done, to have the opportunity.”
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San Francisco has two basic options here — sign Garoppolo to a long-term deal or, if that doesn’t work out, place a franchise tender on him. And even if the tag is placed, the Niners will still have wiggle room to negotiate a long-term extension.
But what’s the best option?
Challenges the 49ers Will Face with a Contract for Jimmy Garoppolo
It sounds easy, right? The Niners offer a fair-market value, and Garoppolo signs on the dotted line.
Well, not so fast.
It’s not uncommon to see NFL contracts dished out based on the “peter principle” — cases where persons are rewarded or promoted based off what they’ve done in the past and not what they’re expected to be able to do in the future. That’s why it’s not surprising to see a so-so player “go off” in a contract year, only to receive a lucrative deal for the following season.
This makes Garoppolo’s negotiation process a tough one. He has just seven starts under his belt. And while the obvious impact upon the 49ers’ 2017 win-loss record is apparent, the fact Garoppolo is relatively inexperienced should make for a bargaining chip in the Niners’ collective hand.
Or does it?
Garoppolo and his agent, Don Yee, can simply counter with the knowledge Garoppolo almost single-handedly transformed a struggling San Francisco offense into a solid one.
KNBR 680’s Kevin Lynch described these, and additional problems, the Niners may face in their negotiation process:
"Should Garoppolo be their fifth highest paid quarterback? The second? The seventh? And how do make that determination when he’s made only seven starts?Further complicating the issue is the fact that there have been few quarterback contracts negotiated recently. Aaron Rodgers is the league’s highest paid quarterback with a five-year, $110 million deal with $54 million guaranteed, but that deal is nearly five years old. Because of its age, would Garoppolo want a similar contract? But would the 49ers give such a large sum to promising but unproven player?All those questions will key negotiating points and their answers don’t have much precedence, which makes negotiating Garoppolo’s deal all the more difficult."
Just Go with the Franchise Tag?
There’s a relatively easy way around this issue, the franchise tag.
Garoppolo’s lack of experience is a reason the franchise tag makes sense — a one-year deal with full guarantees at about $22 million. That would allow the 49ers to fully evaluate Jimmy Garoppolo to see if he’s more than just a “flash in the pan.”
While this all sounds great, tags tend to create serious friction between player and franchise. From the player’s perspective, why not commit to a long-term deal? If you need evidence, just look at the messy situation that arose between the Pittsburgh Steelers and running back Le’Veon Bell last offseason.
Still, it’s a route the Niners may take. Shanahan indicated such last November. The 2018 tag period is from Feb. 20 through March 6, and the 49ers could still negotiate a long-term deal until the middle of July if need be.
But if no extension is reached, Garoppolo and the 49ers would have to wait until 2019 at the earliest.
Why risk it? Especially if another year of promising play winds up driving the price even higher?
A Front-Loaded Five-Year Deal for Jimmy Garoppolo
Lynch’s KNBR report also noted why guaranteed money is the only part of an NFL contract that really counts.
Looking at some comparisons, one of the QBs’ Spotrac.com lists as similar to Garoppolo is that of the Atlanta Falcons’ Matt Ryan. Sure, Ryan is coming off an MVP season. But the start off his current deal (a five-year extension signed in 2013) might end up being similar based off the market increase on franchise-type quarterbacks:
This is where the 49ers, and chief contract negotiator Paraag Marathe, have to get a little creative, though.
Ryan’s contract is back-loaded, with the majority of his guaranteed salary coming between 2016 and 2018. But it’s safe to say Ryan’s pedigree makes this valuation worthwhile.
The uncertainty of Garoppolo’s long-term success should entice San Francisco to “flip the script,” front-loading the deal with guaranteed money and tapering it off over the final two or three years.
So let’s guess a five-year, $105 million deal with $75 million in guarantees. And the guaranteed portion could include as much as $40 million over the first two years.
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It’s a win-win situation for both sides. For Garoppolo, he gets the majority of his money up front — not bad for a QB with just five starts under his belt. And for the Niners, they get to pay for their quarterback’s services while they have the cap space to do so. That might not be the case in 2020 or 2021.
If Garoppolo fizzles out, they’ll be out from under the hefty portion of the contract sooner than later.
The good news is Marathe is solid at negotiations and not putting the Niners in a bind. But even he will have to relax on the team-friendly attitude, not unlike the one he ushered in with former 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick back in 2014. Garoppolo has the leverage now.
Next: 5 free agents the 49ers should target in 2018
Either way, the process will be difficult, and there are far more elements going into the discussions than anything typed up in a “brief” Niner Noise article.