Don’t worry about the 49ers falling in the 2018 NFL Draft order

The San Francisco 49ers’ recent four-game winning streak has meant they’ve fallen out of the top five pick spots in the 2018 NFL Draft. And you shouldn’t worry about it one bit.

Not long ago, San Francisco 49ers fans were considering — and arguably hoping for — the prospects of having the No. 1 overall selection in the 2018 NFL Draft this April.

After all, the Niners were riding a nine-game losing streak and were neck and neck with the Cleveland Browns for that top pick.

Heading into Week 17, San Francisco has pulled off four straight wins and have won five of their last six, largely thanks to the presence and offensive abilities of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Meanwhile, the still-winless Browns have clinched the top pick.

If the draft were to start today, the 49ers would be picking eighth, according to ESPN’s Sports Center:

There will always be the argument a sub-.500 team should lose out for better draft position. After all, higher draft picks are more valuable in a rebuild, right?

The thing, though, is you’ll never see players or coaches operate that way. They have contracts, stats and incentives on the line. And there are other factors in the mix too.

So if you’re concerned about the Niners losing out on better draft position, this article will hopefully help you relax a bit.

Misnomers About the No. 1 Overall Pick

The top pick in any NFL Draft should be a future Hall of Famer or, at the very least, a perennial Pro Bowler, right?

Not so fast.

KNBR 680’s Kevin Lynch spent an ample amount of time breaking down the previous No. 1 overall picks, particularly quarterbacks, over the last 10 years. The results were pretty telling — there’s just as much a chance for a bust as there is for that hopeful Pro Bowler.

Simply put, for every Cam Newton out there, there’s another JaMarcus Russell.

Remember this too — the 49ers landed defensive tackle DeForest Buckner at No. 7 overall back in the 2016 NFL Draft. And he’s turned into one of the best interior defenders in the NFL after two seasons.

If there is a drawback, it’s the loss of value in possible trade-down scenarios. Clearly, pick Nos. 8 or 9 carry far less value than the top selection, especially when the thought of trading up for a quarterback should be on the table for many QB-needy teams this offseason.

But let’s lessen your worry there too, breaking down why the winning rapport is more valuable than even trading down.

San Francisco 49ers

A Young 49ers Team Learning How to Win

It’s totally cliche, but learning how to win at any pro sport is tough.

OK, so you go out and outperform the other team, right? And if you’ve put up more points, runs or goals than your opponent, you win.

Sure. But what about all the little things that go on in between?

Case in point, the Niners were up 16-0 over a very good Jacksonville Jaguars team in Week 16. But Jacksonville responded, putting up 19 unanswered points of their own. In 2015 or 2016… heck, even earlier this season, that would have been the counter-blow that would have sunk any 49ers comeback scenario.

Instead, San Francisco dealt with the adversity and responded nicely. That’s called learning how to win.

The Niners boasted the ninth-youngest team in the league heading into this season, per ESPN. And many of those players, as the team was ushering in a youth movement, had never sniffed much success at the NFL level.

Those young players have now pulled off back-to-back wins over playoff-hopeful teams in the Jaguars and Tennessee Titans.

It’s called building confidence, and it’s vital.

Wins Make the 49ers an Attractive Destination for Free Agents

While there is plenty of buzz around the Bay Area in regards to San Francisco’s recent winning streak, don’t think it’s gone unnoticed by players around the league.

Especially pending free agents.

The Niners are going to have a league-leading $116 million in cap space next year, per Over the Cap. While some of it will be used to extend/tag Garoppolo and re-sign current on-roster players, there will still be plenty left over.

If the 49ers were losing, closing out 2017 on a cold streak and/or a one- or two-win season, Santa Clara wouldn’t exactly be a high-profile destination. While money talks, so does winning.

Just ask former KNBR 680 insider Kevin Jones:

Here’s where it makes a difference.

Building teams through the draft is vital, sure. But each selection is a gamble. And what, a third of the players selected never pan out to their desired levels? That’s a guess, but you get the point I hope.

Free agents are typically proven commodities, especially if you sign the right ones. Many can provide the immediate impact teams covet, whereas most rookie draft picks spend a year, or two, in development.

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Still wishing the 49ers were picking in the top three overall?

Well, those same Browns have had picks within the top 10 in six of the eight total drafts this decade, including three top-three selections (years 2012, 2016 and 2017). And they’ll have another No. 1 overall pick in 2018.

Has that worked for Cleveland? Not exactly.

The point is, the NFL Draft isn’t an end-all, be-all for franchises. Good drafts help, but they don’t always provide the answer.

Next: 2018 NFL Draft: 5 Round 1 prospects the 49ers should watch

Neither does fretting about the difference between pick Nos. 1 and 8.