2018 NFL Draft: Don’t bank on the 49ers selecting running back Saquon Barkley

Penn State running back Saquon Barkley may be the best player in the 2018 NFL Draft. And here’s why the San Francisco 49ers won’t select him with their first pick.

This is going to be unpopular for some of you, but the San Francisco 49ers aren’t likely to nab Penn State running back Saquon Barkley in the 2018 NFL Draft.

Granted, Barkley might easily be the best overall prospect this year, and the numbers he’s put up the last two seasons have been remarkable. No doubt he’s an impact player… a game changer the Niners so desperately need.

As a disclaimer, Barkley to S.F. wouldn’t be the worst thing general manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan could do. The Niners are likely to have a top-two pick, and Barkley could easily be on the boards when the team’s name is called the first time this April.

San Francisco 49ers

And I’d be perfectly happy if Barkley succeeds.

The thing is, though, going after a runner so early doesn’t fit with Shanahan’s plans.

More on that in a second, but let’s look at other reasons why the Niners aren’t going to go the Barkley route.

Building the 49ers’ Foundation First

A year ago, the Niners ranked dead last in offensive line run support, per Football Outsiders. That number is up to 14th this season — a notable improvement — but San Francisco is still ranked 27th in preventing runs from being stuffed at the line of scrimmage.

Add this — center Daniel Kilgore and right guard Brandon Fusco are free agents in 2018, prompting more needs to be addressed in free agency/the NFL Draft.

And upgrades could be needed anyway.

Barkley has all the usable traits one wants in a running back. But consider the issues current Niners tailback Carlos Hyde has had behind a less-than-adequate O-line. In some ways, San Francisco has wasted its former No. 2 overall pick from 2014 without giving him anything close to desired run support.

Fourth and Nine’s Dylan DeSimone described how this has hindered Hyde’s once-high potential in recent years:

"The 49ers’ back is actually doing much, much more than meets the eye. Once he’s handed the ball, he first has to spin, juke or break out of a tackle behind the line of scrimmage before making his read and charging up field. For his entire pro career to date, he’s had to work around the offensive line, rather than jive with it.The only positive is that it’s resulted in him building a callous and reputation as a tough tackle."

Selecting Barkley instead of addressing the O-line first would easily lead to a repeat of this situation.

Essentially, Barkley would be having to do this on a regular basis:

Settling on 49ers’ Halfback Options as Is

Hyde is a free agent this offseason, although it would be smart to re-sign him for 2018. He’ll be 28 years old and still in the prime of his career.

Provided the Niners make some substantial O-line upgrades entering next season, we may finally see what Hyde is truly capable of doing behind a well-balanced and supportive run-blocking cast.

And while he was a disappointment during training camp and the preseason, don’t cross off former Utah tailback Joe Williams (2017, Round 4) just yet. Remember how Shanahan and running backs coach Bobby Turner like to target tailbacks in the middle rounds? This was a perfect example.

Round out this crop with rookie Matt Breida, and running backs are not on the list of needs heading into this offseason.

What to Do with the 49ers’ First Pick in the NFL Draft?

If the Niners re-sign Hyde, the Barkley discussion is essentially over. A depth tailback like, let’s say, San Diego State’s Rashaan Perry could be a nice mid-to-late-round addition. But not a player like Barkley in Round 1.

Yet San Francisco’s first pick in the draft — or even a crop of picks after a plausible trade-down — are better spent on the O-line.

DeSimone asked this very question of former 49ers and Washington Redskins general manager Scot McCloughan. His response was telling:

Granted, a series of free-agent moves to upgrade the O-line would make a massive difference. And the Niners have the cap space to make a number of moves work.

Even if that happens, though, Barkley won’t last beyond the top three picks. And considering the vast array of San Francisco needs, trading down from a top-two pick likely means trading away the chance to land Barkley.

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One player, or the chance to land three impact guys? What do the 49ers need?

Look, the 49ers could let Hyde walk, land Barkley and have an offensive stud, for sure. But it would be at the expense of negating their primary area of need: the O-line. Veteran free-agent talent would help, but the market isn’t exactly brimming with top-tier talent.

That leaves the draft.

Next: 2018 offseason blueprint to fix the 49ers

And considering how poorly San Francisco’s O-line has played this season, combined with age and free-agency worries, going after Barkley would be the proverbial equivalent of putting a roof on before building the foundation.