Niner Noise
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If the 49ers Go Running Back in the First Round, Who Should They Take?

By JD Leidy

Feb 9, 2017; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers general manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan pose for a photo during a press conference at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 9, 2017; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers general manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan pose for a photo during a press conference at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports /
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Nov 5, 2016; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; LSU Tigers running back Leonard Fournette (7) is tackled by Alabama Crimson Tide defensive lineman Dalvin Tomlinson (54) during the second half of a game at Tiger Stadium. Alabama defeated LSU 10-0. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 5, 2016; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; LSU Tigers running back Leonard Fournette (7) is tackled by Alabama Crimson Tide defensive lineman Dalvin Tomlinson (54) during the second half of a game at Tiger Stadium. Alabama defeated LSU 10-0. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports /

Durability

Of course, ability is pointless if a player isn’t on the field to display it.

All three of the backs in question have had their share of injury issues during their respective careers. McCaffrey missed the Notre Dame game this past season with an undisclosed injury. Fournette sat for close to half the year with a bum ankle. And Cook, perhaps the most injury prone of the three, has dealt with offseason shoulder surgery and recurrent hamstring issues.

Looking at the past as an indicator of future durability, here are their games played as a percentage of their total regular season opportunties:

Durability 1
Durability 1 /

Slicing the onion a bit finer, here is the same analysis of each back’s sophomore and junior campaigns, counting only those games in which they surpassed their season average in terms of carries per game:

Durability 2
Durability 2 /

So, with this adjusted metric, McCaffrey is again atop the leader board.

Admittedly, this yardstick is far from perfect. For one, it doesn’t account for game plan or game flow. Additionally, receptions were not included, which unduly penalizes Cook and McCaffrey.

Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, carries below your average do not necessarily imply that injury was the cause. However, leaving a game early would certainly be one reason that a back would have less than their season average in carries.

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The bottom line is that each of these backs is reasonably durable, and all of them appeared in games with more regularity than RB Carlos Hyde has during his professional career (71 percent).

That said, they have all had their share of injury concerns. Moreover, a back like Fournette, who, not unlike Hyde, makes his hay punishing defenders with an inexorable downhill running style, is also likely to pay for it in terms of increased risk of injury in the NFL.

Cook and McCaffrey, on the other hand, are by nature more “make you miss” guys, suggesting both will likely take fewer big hits than Fournette. However, their explosive running styles potentially lend themselves to more strains, pulls and other nagging, soft tissue-type injuries.