49ers: Is a Trade for the No. 2 Overall Pick in the NFL Draft Realistic?

The San Francisco 49ers hold the No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. Niner Noise looks at the feasibility of general manager John Lynch moving down from this spot in Round 1.

Not long ago, San Francisco 49ers general manager John Lynch stated the team was “open for business,” when it came to trading down from the No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft.

It makes sense. The Niners have a plethora of needs, and no single draft class can completely remake the team’s lackluster roster.

And with the top prospects behind Texas A&M EDGE Myles Garrett interchangeable enough to be considered anywhere between Nos. 2 through 8, it wouldn’t be a bad idea for San Francisco to try and add more draft capital.

Value of NFL Draft Picks

Pro Football Talk put together a draft-pick trade-value chart, which is often used to determine the specific worth of NFL Draft picks.

Teams aren’t glued to this, of course, but it does set a bit of a standard to determine whether or not teams are getting good value in deals:

Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
1	3,000	33	580	65	265	97	112	129	43	161	27	193	14.2
2	2,600	34	560	66	260	98	108	130	42	162	26.6	194	13.8
3	2,200	35	550	67	255	99	104	131	41	163	26.2	195	13.4
4	1,800	36	540	68	250	100	100	132	40	164	25.8	196	13
5	1,700	37	530	69	245	101	96	133	39.5	165	25.4	197	12.6
6	1,600	38	520	70	240	102	92	134	39	166	25	198	12.2
7	1,500	39	510	71	235	103	88	135	38.5	167	24.6	199	11.8
8	1,400	40	500	72	230	104	86	136	38	168	24.2	200	11.4
9	1,350	41	490	73	225	105	84	137	37.5	169	23.8	201	11
10	1,300	42	480	74	220	106	82	138	37	170	23.4	202	10.6
11	1,250	43	470	75	215	107	80	139	36.5	171	23	203	10.2
12	1,200	44	460	76	210	108	78	140	36	172	22.6	204	9.8
13	1,150	45	450	77	205	109	76	141	35.5	173	22.2	205	9.4
14	1,100	46	440	78	200	110	74	142	35	174	21.8	206	9
15	1,050	47	430	79	195	111	72	143	34.5	175	21.4	207	8.6
16	1,000	48	420	80	190	112	70	144	34	176	21	208	8.2
17	950	49	410	81	185	113	68	145	33.5	177	20.6	209	7.8
18	900	50	400	82	180	114	66	146	33	178	20.2	210	7.4
19	875	51	390	83	175	115	64	147	32.6	179	19.8	211	7
20	850	52	380	84	170	116	62	148	32.2	180	19.4	212	6.6
21	800	53	370	85	165	117	60	149	31.8	181	19	213	6.2
22	780	54	360	86	160	118	58	150	31.4	182	18.6	214	5.8
23	760	55	350	87	155	119	56	151	31	183	18.2	215	5.4
24	740	56	340	88	150	120	54	152	30.6	184	17.8	216	5
25	720	57	330	89	145	121	52	153	30.2	185	17.4	217	4.6
26	700	58	320	90	140	122	50	154	29.8	186	17	218	4.2
27	680	59	310	91	136	123	49	155	29.4	187	16.6	219	3.8
28	660	60	300	92	132	124	48	156	29	188	16.2	220	3.4
29	640	61	292	93	128	125	47	157	28.6	189	15.8	221	3
30	620	62	284	94	124	126	46	158	28.2	190	15.4	222	2.6
31	600	63	276	95	120	127	45	159	27.8	191	15	223	2.3
32	590	64	270	96	116	128	44	160	27.4	192	14.6	224	2

According to the chart, San Francisco’s first-round pick is assigned a value of 2,600 points. That means any trade-down would have to net an equal-or-greater value to make the deal worthwhile for Lynch and Co.

For example, the Tennessee Titans own two first-round picks in this year’s draft — Nos. 5 and 18. Combined, these two equal 2,500 points, which means a deal for the 49ers’ No. 2 pick would probably require at least one more mid-to-late-round selection to make it worthwhile.

Or the Niners can simply accept the idea both first rounders are good enough.

It’s doubtful the Titans make this move though. They’d be better off using those two picks, likely to land a top-tier wide receiver and a cornerback.

See how it can be difficult to find a trade partner?

A Template for a 49ers Draft-Day Trade

One oft-mentioned scenario involves the Niners trading down with the Carolina Panthers (No. 8) overall, who might be looking to add someone like running back Leonard Fournette or a talented defensive lineman.

We’ll get to that possibility in a moment. But first, let’s explore what a trade-up to No. 2 could possibly cost.

All we have to do is go back to the 2016 NFL Draft, where the Philadelphia Eagles moved up from No. 8 to No. 2 to acquire quarterback Carson Wentz.

Apr 28, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Carson Wentz (North Dakota State) with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after being selected by the Philadelphia Eagles as the number one overall pick in the first round of the 2016 NFL Draft at Auditorium Theatre. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports /

In return, the Cleveland Browns got:

Pick No. 8 overall in 2016
Pick No. 77 overall in 2016
Pick No. 100 overall in 2016
Pick No. 12 overall in 2017
Third-round pick in 2018

The Eagles also received the No. 139 overall pick in this year’s draft, but the math is pretty staggering — two first-round picks, two third rounders and swapping spots in the fourth round.

But this involved a quarterback. And quarterbacks can always demand more, in terms of draft capital.

Yet it can happen, as this retweet from Niners Wire’s Rob Lowder points out:

If the #Browns have taken calls from teams interested in a quarterback, it's safe to say the #49ers have too. https://t.co/y87VnmNtTI
— Rob Lowder (@Rob_Lowder) April 19, 2017

The Carolina Panthers Possibility

Last month, a bit of a rumor surfaced stating the Panthers were interested in moving up to the No. 2 spot.

Drew Boylhart of The Huddle Report suggested this possibility on March 28, and the Sacramento Bee’s Matt Barrows added a little further insight:

BREAKING; #THR is Hearing #Panthers are talking to #49ers about 2nd overall pick. Panthers looking for a big time defender. #NFLDRAFT #NFL
— Drew Boylhart (@DrewBoylhart) March 28, 2017

Lots of talk/rumor about Carolina (picking at No. 8) trying to obtain #49ers' No. 2 pick. Told there's nothing currently in the works.
— Matt Barrows (@mattbarrows) March 29, 2017

Just like the aforementioned Browns-Eagles deal from a year ago, the 49ers and Panthers own the Nos. 2 and 8 picks, respectively.

Boylhart suggested Carolina is interested in a defensive player. Perhaps that player is Stanford defensive end Solomon Thomas. For what it’s worth, Panthers head coach Ron Rivera was on hand for Thomas’ pro day.

Or, possibly, the running back-needy Panthers are looking at someone like Fournette to add more depth and balance to their offense.

So that might explain why San Francisco is drumming up its own interest in Fournette, even if the fit doesn’t seem quite right.

Feasibility of a Draft Trade Happening

At this point, Lynch can afford to be greedy. The No. 2 overall pick gives San Francisco the luxury of taking any player in the draft, likely not named Garrett.

And even Garrett might be in play if the Browns do something crazy.

More from Niner Noise

Sure, moving down would be an excellent idea, especially if the 49ers can still manage to land the top guy on their radar in Round 1. As noted, the prospects between Nos. 2 and 8 are all pretty interchangeable.

But other teams know this as well, which lessens the likelihood of a trade-up.

Of course, some team out there might be looking for a quarterback and think either the Niners, Browns or even Chicago Bears are in play for one early.

Next: How the 49ers Are Linked to Top-32 Draft Prospects

Still, don’t bank on a trade happening. The 49ers likely stay put at No. 2.

2017 NFL Draft: Is a Trade for the 49ers’ No. 2 Overall Pick Realistic?

By Peter Panacy | Apr 19, 2017