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2017 NFL Draft: Identifying the 49ers Perfect Trade-Down Scenario in Round 1

By Peter Panacy

May 8, 2014; New York, NY, USA; A general view of a helmet, NFL shield, stage, and podium before the start of the 2014 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports
May 8, 2014; New York, NY, USA; A general view of a helmet, NFL shield, stage, and podium before the start of the 2014 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports /
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The San Francisco 49ers currently own the No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. While staying put ensures the Niners land a top-five prospect, trading down gives San Francisco even more of a return.

Here’s the scenario — the Cleveland Browns select Texas A&M edge rusher Myles Garrett with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft.

The San Francisco 49ers are now on the clock.

San Francisco holds the No. 2 overall pick, of course. And the Niners have no shortage of needs this offseason.

While staying put will give the 49ers a chance at landing a top-five prospect, an equally positive scenario is one which has San Francisco’s future general manager trading down in Round 1.

Especially if an overwhelming draft crush like Garrett is already off the boards.

Why would the Niners want to trade down? Well, anyone can tell you the team has needs. Plenty of them. So if a top-five pick can be turned into multiple picks — let’s say two or three more — why wouldn’t the 49ers pull the trigger?

Let’s see how it can happen.

Value of the 49ers Round 1 Pick

We can assess a certain value for the No. 2 overall pick. According to Walter Football, the second-overall pick is worth 2,600 points. Any team wanting to trade up to that spot would have to send picks amounting to an equal-or-greater amount for a transaction to be worthwhile.

Take a look at the chart below, and you can come up with any number of different trade possibilities:

But to get an idea on what could happen for a No. 2 pick traded off, look no further than what the Philadelphia Eagles gave up to land the Cleveland Browns pick in the 2016 draft:

  • Eighth overall pick (own)
  • 77th overall pick (Round 3)
  • 100th overall pick (Round 4)
  • Round 1 pick in 2017 (No. 10 overall)
  • Round 3 pick in 2018

Philadelphia did receive the Browns’ fourth-round pick in 2017. Even minus that, a net total would exceed the 2,600 points assigned to the No. 2 pick even without knowing where the Round 3 pick will fall in 2018.

Keep this in mind too — if another team falls in love with a player, who doesn’t appear to fall much lower than the second pick, overpaying in draft capital might generate a nice return for San Francisco.

Teams always reach for quarterbacks.

The Perfect Trade Down

Here’s an easy scenario in which the 49ers can move down in the NFL Draft. It isn’t far, but it would net San Francisco another Round 1 selection without much problem.

The Tennessee Titans own the No. 5 overall pick in the draft — the one acquired in last year’s trade with the Los Angeles Rams, who used the No. 1 pick to grab quarterback Jared Goff.

Apr 28, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Carson Wentz (North Dakota State) with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after being selected by the Philadelphia Eagles as the number one overall pick in the first round of the 2016 NFL Draft at Auditorium Theatre. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 28, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Carson Wentz (North Dakota State) with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after being selected by the Philadelphia Eagles as the number one overall pick in the first round of the 2016 NFL Draft at Auditorium Theatre. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports /

The fifth pick in Round 1 is worth 1,700 points, which would make subsequent needs amount to 900 points to be made up. Yet Tennessee also has its own first-round pick, No. 16 overall, that could be used to sweeten the deal and pull the trigger.

In total, these two picks would be worth 2,700 points — just over the 2,600 assigned to the No. 2 pick.

The Titans would land a top-two prospect. San Francisco would still be in the top five and have another mid-round pick in Round 1 to add more much-needed talent.

Here are some easy selections for the Niners with these two picks:

  • Linebacker Reuben Foster, Alabama
  • Quarterback Deshaun Watson, Clemson

or…

  • Wide receiver Mike Williams, Clemson
  • EDGE Tim Williams, Alabama

or…

  • Quarterback Mitch Trubisky, North Carolina
  • Wide receiver Corey Davis, Western Michigan

More from Niner Noise

Bam. Just like that, the Niners solve two glaring positional needs, whatever they may be at the best value for each selection.

And it would be a move to allow San Francisco’s next GM to make a statement about wholly investing in a complete overhaul and not doing it piecemeal.

Next: 2017 NFL Draft: Mocking the Niners over 7 Rounds

Make it happen, 49ers. You can certainly use the help.