Niner Noise
FanSided

San Francisco 49ers: Realistically, How Long Will a Rebuild Take?

By Peter Panacy

January 20, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Chip Kelly addresses the media in a press conference after being introduced as the new head coach for the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium Auditorium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
January 20, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Chip Kelly addresses the media in a press conference after being introduced as the new head coach for the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium Auditorium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports /
facebooktwitterreddit

The San Francisco 49ers are only in the initial phases of a complete rebuild and overhaul, as the numbers of the 2016 season suggest. How long will such a process take?

Blow it up and start over — that should be the mantra of the San Francisco 49ers this year and entering 2017.

More from SF 49ers News

If this was franchise mode in Madden, one would want to hit the reset button or simply delete this saved game and start anew.

But there are no reset buttons in the NFL, and the Niners are tasked with trying to find their way back up from the very depths of the league. General managers and front-office types might not like the term, but this is a full-on rebuild right now.

The only question is how long it will take.

There’s no easy answer, since so many variables come into play. Who knows if general manager Trent Baalke survives into February. And with trade rumors swirling around wide receiver Torrey Smith and left tackle Joe Staley, where exactly are the 49ers’ offseason needs going to be?

Related Story: Why It Makes Sense for the 49ers to Trade WR Torrey Smith

Simply stated, the 49ers have far too many needs to assume one, or even two, offseasons will fix everything.

But let’s try to break down each scenario, in terms of length, and assess the likeliest of possibilities.

Spoiler: It’s not going to be fun.

One to Two Years

The parity in the NFL suggests teams can go from a last-place franchise to a playoff contender in a relatively short amount of time. The opposite can happen as well. Just ask the reigning NFC champs, the Carolina Panthers.

Quick turnarounds are real at the pro level. And it’s entirely possible the Niners, who will be stocked with salary-cap space in 2017, are able to supplement their roster via free agency.

San Francisco will need those reinforcements. The franchise will also need up-and-coming players to reach full potential. This could happen. Maybe next year is the season in which we see the full prowess of young defensive ends DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead wreaking havoc on opponents’ offensive lines.

And maybe rookie corner Rashard Robinson becomes the next shutdown guy. Tack on fellow defensive back Jimmie Ward into that equation as well.

Aug 4, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers defensive end Arik Armstead (91) and defensive end DeForest Buckner (99) walk out for training at SAP Performance Facility. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 4, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers defensive end Arik Armstead (91) and defensive end DeForest Buckner (99) walk out for training at SAP Performance Facility. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports /

Some smart offseason moves, and continued player development, could make the 49ers contenders again.

But so much of the question will revolve around the quarterback position. It’s pretty clear both Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick aren’t the answers, long term, moving forward. And so it’s likely San Francisco will have to target a rookie signal-caller in the NFL Draft.

If the 49ers hit on someone, it’s possible things turn around in a hurry. Just ask the Indianapolis Colts, who went from 2-14 to 11-5 after drafting quarterback Andrew Luck in 2012.

Yet this Niners team has far too many problems than just a quarterback, which makes this possibility extremely unlikely.

August 26, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers head coach Chip Kelly looks on against the Green Bay Packers during the second quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
August 26, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers head coach Chip Kelly looks on against the Green Bay Packers during the second quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports /

Three to Five Years

This might be the likeliest of scenarios.

Consider those young players mentioned earlier. Many of them will be entering the prime of their careers. And, as ESPN’s John Clayton wrote, “It’s not out of the question that the number of blue-chip players could at least double by next season.”

These guys will have to be the cornerstones of the franchise. At least the Niners have a few, we hope.

And yet the likelihood of an immediate turnaround isn’t high. Which is why a three-plus year rebuild seems the most accurate.

To put it into perspective, let’s quote Niners Wire columnist Vince Fausone:

"How many years until the 49ers have another winning season?Over/under: 3.5 yearsYes, 3.5 years seems bleak, but a smart better would probably take the over on this one. If the 49ers lose another winnable game to the Saints in Week 9, they’ll be on pace for a 2-14 record. The last time the 49ers went 2-14 was in 2004, in what would be head coach Dennis Ericsson’s last season with the team. It wasn’t until 2011 that the 49ers compiled another winning record."

Yeah, things could take much longer than three to five years. And we’ll get to that in a second.
But if the team comes up with a solid approach — one equipped with short-, medium- and long-term goals, being a contender by 2019 isn’t totally out of reach.

Six-Plus Years

As Fausone noted, the Niners could be on pace to lose 14 games this season, which would be a direct indication of how low this team currently stands.

And fans are hoping for anything but another elongated break between winning seasons, as was the case between 2004 and 2011.

January 20, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers chief executive officer Jed York (left) and Chip Kelly (right) pose for a photo in a press conference after naming Kelly as the new head coach for the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium Auditorium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
January 20, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers chief executive officer Jed York (left) and Chip Kelly (right) pose for a photo in a press conference after naming Kelly as the new head coach for the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium Auditorium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports /

Unfortunately, we’re seeing a lot of the same problems now. Front-office miscues, a revolving door of head coaches and coordinators and a slew of roster problems plagued San Francisco the latter half of the last decade.

All of this points to the top of the organization. Yes, the York family.

More from Niner Noise

Sure, we can assign blame here. And we should. But the reality is CEO Jed York and Co. aren’t going anywhere anytime soon. But that doesn’t mean they have an immediate responsibility to resurrect the team either.

So this opens up the door to a very likely possibility the Niners are bad into the middle of next decade. If there is a good bit of fortune, the 2016 49ers aren’t strapped by poor salary and contractual decisions, which completely demolished the team’s roster between 2003 and 2004.

Those implications lasted for years. The same isn’t the case right now.

Next: Why a Horrid 2016 Season Is Good for the 49ers

Still, the door remains open for another half-decade-plus of teamwide issues across the board.

And it’s a door Niners fans hope would shut in short order.