Why the 2016 San Francisco 49ers Are Better and Worse than You Think

The San Francisco 49ers are likely going to be fighting to stay out of the NFC West cellar in 2016, and not much is expected from this franchise under head coach Chip Kelly. At the same time, there is promise out of this young group. Is this enough to outweigh the lofty problems facing the Niners this year?

Unless you’ve been living under a rock the last eight months — hey, it’s cool if you are — you’re probably well aware not much is expected out of the San Francisco 49ers in the upcoming 2016 season.

There’s a new head coach in town, Chip Kelly, and a roster largely made up of untested talent.

San Francisco no longer has a team laden with proven stars, impact players and noteworthy contributors, against whom other teams were forced to scheme. And, from 2011 through 2013, largely fail at doing so.

So it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise the Niners aren’t expected to do much this season. But, as is so often the case with these matters, are pundits and experts overlooking reasons why San Francisco could actually, you know, be better than anticipated this season?

Absolutely. There are more than just a handful of reasons why the 49ers might impress in 2016.

But there is an equal and opposite reaction to every force out there, and the Niners could wind up being worse in some areas too.

Let’s touch on both.

Worse than You Think

I’m always of the opinion we should get the bad news out of the way first so we can end on a positive note.

San Francisco will be worse than anticipated for a number of real reasons.

For starters, and what most will be looking at, the 49ers have an unsolved question at quarterback. Both Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick are competing for the starting job right now and, according to various sources, each QB has outplayed the other during various stages of training camp:

Kelly won’t likely provide us with an answer until late in the preseason or, in reality, at the very start of the regular season.

While competition is good, San Francisco’s young crop of receivers needs to develop chemistry with whoever is under center. That’s not exactly happening now, at least not consistently.

Speaking of those receivers, the 49ers only have two wideouts — Torrey Smith and Jerome Simpson — who have more than 40 NFL-level receptions.

The rest, well, the majority define “unproven.”

Third-year pro Bruce Ellington could be a nice X-factor in Kelly’s offense, and Quinton Patton has had some nice camp moments. But is all this enough to ensure 49ers fans the passing game will be adequate?

Probably not. At least not to the satisfaction of most. Armed with this knowledge, opposing defenses will simply be able to lock down on Smith and force other receivers to beat them.

Based on previous results, the Niners don’t have anyone who has proven enough to accomplish this.

Speaking of defenses, San Francisco’s defense is going to be a major focal point this year. Yes, there is a lot of promise here — and we’ll get to that shortly — but there are also more than a handful of reasons for worry.

Say what you wish about Kelly’s uptempo offense and how effective it is, but if you really want to be worried, check out what Niner Noise’s Rich Madrid broke down about defensive coordinator Jim O’Neil’s scheme — most notably, against the run:

"So were Cleveland’s defensive struggles in the running game a problem of talent or a problem of scheme?It is really a combination of both, but the more problematic thing is the way the run defense was coached to play their assignments."

O’Neil’s defenses with the Cleveland Browns were largely affected by injuries last year, but the nature of his approach also leaves room for numerous problems.

A good deal of this work will fall upon defensive ends Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner. Keep in mind that San Francisco’s best run-stuffer, nose tackle Ian Williams, is out for the year.

As Chris Biderman of USA Today’s Niners Wire pointed out, stopping the run — especially in sub packages — will be a critical factor in determining how successful the 49ers defense will be this year:

"It’s going to be up to the younger defensive linemen, Armstead and Buckner, to stop the run if the 49ers are going to compete in 2016. The Eagles finished last in time of possession in all three seasons under Chip Kelly while he ran his no-huddle, up-tempo offense.The book on beating a Kelly-led team is to control the tempo by wearing his defense out with the run."

If this doesn’t happen, the 49ers defense will be worn out all too quickly and be subject to big gains and zero advantage in time of possession. And linebacker Aaron Lynch’s four-game suspension could mean the defense hurts for a pass rush in a major way.

And can a Niners offense, already laden with question marks, make up the difference?

Oh, and the last we checked, San Francisco still plays in the NFC West. And the 49ers have the toughest 2016 schedule, according to last season’s standings, with opponents’ winning percentages coming in at a combined .555 mark.

Yeah, that doesn’t help.

Better than You Think

OK, we get it. The 49ers are probably going to be bad. And it’s no surprise ESPN reported the Niners weren’t going to be favored in any regular-season game this season.

Let’s play the “under the radar card” now, shall we?

Going back to the quarterback discussion, all one should do is recall Kelly’s efforts with former Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Nick Foles and how the latter ended up a Pro Bowler in 2013. What has Foles done since his time under Kelly’s tutelage?

Or we could just ask Jason McIntyre of Fox Sports:

This doesn’t immediately solve everything regarding San Francisco’s quarterback situation, but Kelly has proven he can work well with quarterbacks at the pro level — something former head coach Jim Tomsula could never say. Neither could former offensive coordinator Geep Chryst.

Even more promising — and a No. 1 reason why fans should feel the Niners will be better than anticipated — will be the team’s running game.

Yes, there are worries about the aerial attack. But the 49ers running game might actually be a strength. A real one at that.

As NBC Bay Area’s Doug Williams pointed out, Kelly’s offense will be a run-first one, so we should expect to see a lot more of running back Carlos Hyde. Hyde is slimmed down and a perfect fit within Kelly’s inside-zone scheme.

Oh, and the Niners offensive line — which ranked 30th in run-blocking support last year, per Pro Football Focus — has been revamped to support the run.

Right tackle Anthony Davis has returned from retirement and is working his way up the depth chart. The Niners also drafted run-mauling guard Joshua Garnett in Round 1 of the 2016 NFL Draft. Tack on free-agent guard Zane Beadles, who also excelled in zone-blocking schemes and in run support, and the 49ers O-line looks pretty darn good.

The offensive side of the ball will draw the majority of attention with Kelly at the helm. But the focus should shift towards the defense and, most notably, the front seven.

We all know linebacker NaVorro Bowman will be just fine. But the big talk will focus on Buckner and Armstead.

Armstead has been one of the bigger standouts in camp, and his second season at the pro level could mean we see an increase in production that entirely justifies the 49ers reaching for him in the 2015 draft.

But Buckner is supposed to be an even better prospect. He brings a pass-rush potential Armstead didn’t have when he entered the draft.

The 49ers will need it.

And to answer Biderman’s concerns about stopping the run, especially in sub packages, let’s turn our focus back to Pro Football Focus (pun intended). PFF kindly highlighted how effective Buckner was against the run, which makes for a greater sense of ease regarding this pressing worry:

"Buckner’s pass-rush is probably his strength, but he’s a problem in the run game for offenses too. He recorded 36 stops against the run this year, which was fourth among all 3-4 DEs, while his run stop percentage was fifth."

The last time San Francisco was good, the defense had two players along the D-line named Justin Smith and Ray McDonald. Both are gone now, for various reasons, but the 49ers D-line actually looks like a formidable strength.

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And here’s the kicker — NFL games are all-too often decided in the trenches, and the 49ers have significantly reinforced both sides of the line of scrimmage.

So, if there’s nothing else about which to be satisfied or dissatisfied, one should take comfort knowing San Francisco will be better here in 2016.

And maybe that propels the Niners to be better than we all thought they would be this season.

Next: Xs & Os Lab: 49ers DC Jim O'Neil's Run Defense

All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and Sports-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated.