Why 49ers Quarterback Colin Kaepernick Will, Won’t Start in Week 1

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick has a long ways to go to ensure he overtakes fellow QB Blaine Gabbert for the No. 1 signal-caller job to start the 2016 NFL season. Niner Noise breaks down both sides of the table as to why he either will or won’t start in Week 1.

The way things stand right now, Blaine Gabbert will be the San Francisco 49ers’ starting quarterback to kick off the 2016 season. Not Colin Kaepernick.

This shouldn’t exactly come as much of a surprise. Remember, Kaepernick lost out on the starting gig midway through the 2015 season, albeit in an anemic offense, and spent the remainder of the year sitting on the sideline watching Gabbert showcase a marginally better performance record.

Tack on Gabbert being able to receive first-team reps during OTAs and minicamp, while Kaepernick was still awaiting clearance from offseason surgeries, and the former looks to be the favorite to get the nod in Week 1.

Here’s the thing though — Gabbert, at his best, isn’t wholly much better than Kaepernick at his worst. Kap has a higher ceiling. Few would argue this. But Kaepernick’s shortcomings?

Those are where the problems lay.

But what if there were more cases for Kaepernick starting under center in 2016 than initially thought? And how can we contrast those to the setbacks and risks?

Let’s take a look.

First, let’s draw up as direct of a comparison as possible and set the context while we’re at it.

Both Kaepernick and Gabbert started eight games apiece in 2015 — Kap the first eight and Gabbert the final eight.

And here are the numbers:

Colin Kaepernick

• Wins/losses: 2-6-0
• Completions/attempts: 144-244
• Completion percentage: 59.0
• Passing yards: 1,615
• Passing touchdowns/interceptions: 6-5
• Passer rating: 78.5
• Sacks: 28

Blaine Gabbert

• Wins/losses: 3-5-0
• Completions/attempts: 178-282
• Completion percentage: 63.1
• Passing yards: 2,031
• Passing touchdowns/interceptions: 10-7
• Passer rating: 86.2
• Sacks: 25

Without question, 2015 marked Kaepernick worst career year. And it’s a fair argument to suggest he’s been trending in the wrong direction since he took the league by storm in 2012.

And last year also marked Gabbert’s best. His years with the Jacksonville Jaguars were disastrous for the former first-round draft pick.

Judging by the above numbers — which only tell a part of the story — Gabbert isn’t entirely a better option under center. The completion percentage is better as is the passer rating, but it’s nowhere near suggesting the 49ers have a new franchise guy under center.

CSN Bay Area broke down even more stats from Pro Football Focus:

"According to PFF, Kaepernick was pressured on 39.5 percent of his dropbacks (9th highest), compared to Gabbert’s 37.6 percent (T-14th highest).When pressured, Kaepernick was sacked 24.1 percent of the time (2nd highest), while Gabbert was brought down 20.2% of the time (7th highest)."

And then there were the sacks. Yes, the 49ers permeable offensive line bore a lot of the blame, but it wasn’t totally as if Gabbert was exceptional at getting rid of the ball under pressure (although his release time was considerably shorter, per PFF — 2.38 seconds compared to 2.55).

Thank you, checkdown passes.

The installation of Chip Kelly as head coach changes a great deal. Considering Kelly prides his quarterbacks on being able to accurately deliver well-timed passes, it’s worth suggesting neither QB, Kaepernick or Gabbert, is an ideal fit.

But Kelly also made both Philadelphia Eagles signal-callers, Nick Foles and Sam Bradford, into more than effective quarterbacks during Kelly’s tenure there. Aside from being under Kelly, can anyone recall a time with either Foles or Bradford were anything but marginal or substandard QBs?

Kelly recently stated, via KNBR 680 (h/t Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News), he has not yet decided on who gets the start to begin 2016.

“I have no idea,” Kelly said on whether or not he made a decision under center. “We’re not playing a game until September. At this point in time, it’s early, and one of the players, Colin, is injured right now, so he’s not been a full participant in everything.”

With little doubt, Kelly is keeping his cards close. And why wouldn’t he be? It forces the Niners’ opponents to game plan even more. It also, most likely, forces both Kaepernick and Gabbert to press the competition with each other.

So what if Kaepernick wins the competition?

Why Kaepernick Starts

Kaepernick’s 2012 and 2013 skill set didn’t just disappear overnight. It isn’t as if the former star quarterback reached the 30-years-old-and-declining plateau.

What could be argued is this — during Kaepernick’s best seasons, he had a head coach in Jim Harbaugh, who was more than capable of getting the most out of his players. San Francisco’s offense, at least initially, was designed to maximize Kap’s impact.

It worked. At least in 2012 and 2013.

At times, Kaepernick does what most quarterbacks should do — look through his progressions and reads. We can see this in the following clip, posted by Niner Noise’s Jerod Brown:

When all the receiving options were covered, Kaepernick was able to scramble for a nice gain. Nothing wrong there.

Keep in mind, San Francisco’s 2015 offense and play-calling wasn’t exactly playing to Kaepernick’s strengths. One could argue the same about former offensive coordinator Greg Roman’s 2014 efforts — a year in which the Niners seemed to be asking Kap to “do too much” instead of doing what he did best.

Kelly is capable of following the latter — realizing Kaepernick’s best strengths and putting him into a position to utilize them most frequently.

And for the simplest of explanations why Kaepernick will get the start?

As stated earlier, Kap’s ceiling is far higher than that of Gabbert. Even though 2015 only tells part of the story, the numbers weren’t totally different. For Gabbert, it was a career-best season. It was also Kaepernick’s worst.

But what if Kaepernick’s regression is an unstoppable force?

Why Kaepernick Won’t Start

The “ying to the yang” of this argument has to point out reasons why Kaepernick doesn’t get the start in 2016.

True, he’s the far superior athlete. But Gabbert isn’t exactly an overweight, oft-injured guy who can throw. Kaepernick rushed for 256 yards last season (averaging 5.7 yards per attempt). On the other hand, Gabbert rushed for 185 yards with a 5.8 yards-per-attempt average.

So it doesn’t appear as if Kaepernick has a clear-cut rushing-ability advantage.

Kaepernick’s rehabilitation during OTAs and minicamp also gives Gabbert an advantage. The coaching staff saw Gabbert first. And while Kaepernick was reportedly a great teammate and participated in as many events as possible pre-clearance, per Inman, the on-field showcases will ultimately be what decides who starts.

Not long ago, NFL Media’s Mike Silver noted, via Dan Hanzus of NFL.com, Gabbert was a “heavy favorite” to land the starting job.

“He’s loved in this locker room,” Silver said of Gabbert. “He did a lot of good things last year and I’d be shocked if he’s not the starter in the opener.”

This might stand in contrast to on-field performances. And while Kaepernick has the higher ceiling, we can’t forget plays like this:

Or this:

I recall Arizona Cardinals safety Tyrann Mathieu’s comments about Kaepernick last year after the Cardinals soundly beat the 49ers 47-7 in Week 3. Mathieu noted how easy it was to scheme against Kaepernick based off his weaknesses.

Take away a portion of the field, and it was almost as if the Arizona defense knew what Kaepernick was going to do before he did it.

Those are negative traits which won’t just go away. And there are more than a few others we could elaborate on for quite a while.

The bottom line is pretty simple. Kaepernick is a high-risk, high-reward player. Yes, he’s probably capable of doing more than Gabbert. But Kap’s flaws open up far more issues for whatever Kelly and the Niners offense will try to do.

Oh, and it doesn’t help Gabbert was reported to study four or five times more than Kaepernick, according to Bleacher Report.

Prediction

There are fair arguments both ways whether or not Kaepernick should, or shouldn’t, start in 2016. At least in Week 1.

Sure, the entire storyline could be different two, three or eight weeks into the regular season. Maybe Kaepernick does start but runs into the same sort of issues he experienced over the first half of last year, which forces the Niners to make yet another switch.

Or maybe Gabbert starts, only to give way to Kaepernick at some point later.

For now, and why we only discussed Week 1, Gabbert still seems to be the favorite. And here’s the reason why — the 49ers, especially on offense, are undergoing a major transition. This is a young, developing team.

Developing teams already bring a lot of X-factors and variables to the table. And not all are good. Gabbert is less of a high-low variable than Kaepernick, which likely means there’s a little more consistency there.

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And so, Gabbert will get the nod in Week 1. Not Kaepernick.

But, as is the story with anything in the NFL, this doesn’t mean Kaepernick won’t start at all this season. It’s entirely possible he regains the starting job at some point. Especially if Gabbert doesn’t quite pan out.

We’ll have to wait until Week 1 and thereafter to find out.

Next: 3rd Down, Red Zone Will Define Chip Kelly's First Year

All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and Sports-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated.