San Francisco 49ers: 3rd Down & Red-Zone Efficiency Will Define Chip Kelly’s First Year as Head Coach

Niner Noise takes an in-depth look at head coach Chip Kelly and his first year with the San Francisco 49ers. Two areas stand out in which the Niners will need to show marked improvement — third-down conversions and red-zone efficiency. These two areas will define Kelly’s 2016 efforts.

2016 is a season of transition and development for the San Francisco 49ers, and a lot should be expected to change under new head coach Chip Kelly.

Unlike his predecessor, Jim Tomsula, Kelly’s offensive-minded influence should make the Niners offense much more potent this season. Even if this group lacks a lot of the firepower most offensive-juggernaut teams would have.

While the upcoming year may not be a good one, two areas will mark just how successful Kelly and the 49ers may be and whether or not the team’s offense is pointing in the right direction — third downs and red-zone efficiency.

Needless to say, the Niners were among the league’s worst in both categories last year. Heck, they were among the NFL’s worst in a lot of areas under Tomsula.

It may be asinine to think San Francisco will go from a last-place offense in 2015 to a top-10 group this year. But third-down conversions and red-zone prowess will go a long way in determining whether or not Kelly is making a substantial difference with what he has.

In a sense, these two areas mark where coaching, scheme and matchups are most important.

Let’s start off with third downs.

Third Downs

2015 Results

One could make the argument a team will win if it’s able to convert more third downs than its opponent.

Perhaps and, if it is true, the Niners’ 2015 results say a lot about the team’s record.

Last season, San Francisco converted just 65 of 213 third-down attempts — good for a 30.37 percent mark, according to TeamRankings.com, and second to last in the NFL.

Out of these 213 attempts, the 49ers elected to run the ball 43 times and pass 154 times, which equates, roughly, to a 3-to-1 pass-versus-run ratio. This isn’t surprising, since 153 of those attempts were from four or more yards out. And 76 of them were on tries of 10-plus yards.

San Francisco quarterbacks Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick combined for a 68.2 passer rating on third downs and a completion percentage of 57.8 — lowest out of any downs over the course of the season.

And, while it may be joking to an extent, the following tweet from Fox Sports’ Dieter Kurtenbach says a lot:

Let’s get into some of the nuts and bolts of the problem.

Play-calling from then-offensive coordinator Geep Chryst wasn’t exactly innovative. The majority of Gabbert’s options were underneath, so let’s take a look at one particular third-down attempt against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 12:

As you’ll see, only one route-runner (No. 1) will draw coverage over the top. The running back (No. 5) could work out to this route, but it’s unlikely he’ll get to the chains in time before Arizona’s pass rush reaches Gabbert.

The rest of the routes are well underneath. And here’s how the play developed:

Each one of the Niners receivers have over-the-top coverage. Gabbert’s eventual target (yellow arrow) is stopped well short of the first-down marker. Had the No. 3 guy inside the slot (see above) ran a more-direct route to the first-down market, coverage would have likely opened up more options underneath.

Do you think the 49ers converted? No? Well, you’re right. Granted, some of these plays are engineered to allow receivers to make plays in space. But even this wasn’t an option here.

Chip Kelly’s Third-Down History & 49ers Expectations

Without much doubt, Kelly brings an added factor to what the 49ers will do on third downs.

Granted, the personnel he has may not be ideal. The Niners lack for experienced receivers, but Kelly has a knack for getting the most out of what he has. Certainly more than Tomsula.

Let’s take a quick look at third-down conversion rates for Kelly during his tenure with the Philadelphia Eagles:

• 2013: 38.22 percent (14th)
• 2014: 43.46 percent (9th)
• 2015: 39.39 percent (16th)

The mark which will likely most resemble what the 49ers may do in 2016 is Kelly’s 2013 efforts — his first year as head coach. Remember, Kelly inherited an Eagles team coming off a 4-12 record in 2012.

And while there are notable differences, the 2015 Niners and 2012 Eagles weren’t all that different, as pointed out earlier in a comparison of both teams’ DVOA rankings and Pro Football Reference’s simple-rating system.

So we can take a guess the 49ers may finish 2016 somewhere around the 38-percent third-down conversion rate.

A lot of this will be determined how well Kelly’s offense manages itself in third-down situations and, even more importantly, whether or not the majority of third downs have three or less yards to go. Judging on the Niners’ passing statistics on four-plus yards on third downs, the offense will want to be facing 3rd-and-short as much as possible. Any team would.

The Red Zone

2015 Results

Ah yes, the red zone. An area in which the 49ers have, historically, suffered a lot of problems and ineptitude in recent years.

The numbers aren’t pretty. Last year, San Francisco’s offense converted a mere 43.59 percent of red-zone visits into touchdowns, according to TeamRankings.com. This was second to last in the NFL a year ago.

San Francisco had just 17 red-zone touchdowns last year. The numbers may be a bit deceiving — quarterbacks actually had a red-zone passer rating of 100.1 last year — but the lack of touchdowns suggests a lot of well-executed passes but few finding end-zone pay dirt.

But there are some plays to suggest the Niners have the personnel to execute better in the red zone on a more consistent basis.

Let’s go back to a 2014 matchup against the Oakland Raiders where we saw a touchdown pass from Kaepernick to then-fullback Bruce Miller.

As you’ll see, the Niners’ other receivers are able to draw coverage, which will leave Miller wide open towards the flat:

This isn’t an overly complicated play. It’s just executed well, and the Raiders defenders lose track of Miller. Consider this to be important for an overwhelmingly young core of Niners receiving targets.

Oh, and Miller’s conversion from fullback to tight end means he’ll likely be featured in red-zone packages quite often.

Even this play — a 19-yard touchdown pass from Gabbert to fellow TE Vance McDonald — suggests the personnel is there:

"#49ers scoring drive: 9 plays, 92 yards, 1:31 resulting in this @VMcDonald89 TD! #SFvsSEA https://t.co/1ygGLfdlyt— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) November 22, 2015"

It’s not an overly complicated route. It’s just properly executed.

Chip Kelly’s Red-Zone History & 49ers Expectations

Understandably, Kelly’s red-zone history is better than what has been seen with the 49ers in recent seasons.

Red-zone offenses are all about matchups, precision passes and quickly timed execution. The area in which to work is much smaller, which means the time for decision-making is substantially less.

There may be some concerns here with the effectiveness of either Gabbert or Kaepernick — accuracy not being either QB’s prime strength — but one should expect Kelly to draw up plays that will help either quarterback find an open target or two.

Let’s look at the stats from Kelly’s time in Philadelphia:

• 2013: 53.23 percent (13th)
• 2014: 49.15 percent (23rd)
• 2015: 55.81 percent (15th)

Two of Kelly’s three years with the Eagles resulted in red-zone efficiency rankings in the top half of NFL teams.

San Francisco may not jump from the very bottom all the way into this group, but a red-zone expectancy rate around 50 percent would be a vast improvement over last year’s statistics.

To do this, Kelly will look to employ some big-bodied receiving targets and not solely rely on No. 1 tailback Carlos Hyde. Miller is a likable option. Fellow TE Garrett Celek is as well. And, if his hands finally come around, perhaps McDonald gets into the mix.

Remember, tight ends are a quarterback’s best friend in the red zone.

But to keep defenses honest, don’t be surprised if Kelly mixes in some wide receiver handoffs, like this one with Bruce Ellington:

Putting it bluntly, the 49ers offensive regime under Tomsula and Chryst did not maximize the talent and matchups to the team’s best capability.

Kelly is capable of doing this, as his offensive numbers in Philadelphia suggest.

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While the stats, film breakdowns and suggestions point to some notable improvement, we need to keep in mind the Niners still lack enough bona fide playmakers to ensure both third-down conversions and red-zone touchdowns take place at a regular rate.

Remember, this is still a team in transition. So we need to dampen our hopes quite a bit.

Still, if the team’s 2015 numbers improve to marks at, or around, the aforementioned projections, Kelly’s first year as head coach of the 49ers will be a good one. Third downs and red-zone efficiency are two areas in which team offenses can either prove themselves or fall by the wayside.

If the former rings true, San Francisco will have climbed one crucial step towards getting back on track.

Next: Why There's Hope for the 2016 49ers

All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and Sports-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated.