Why the 49ers 2016 Season May Go Terribly Wrong

After an offseason of great change, there is some cause for optimism with the San Francisco 49ers but plenty of reasons why their 2016 season may go terribly wrong.

On the back of a 5-11 season, expectations for the 49ers in 2016 are rightfully low.

San Francisco was dreadful last term under Jim Tomsula and, despite spending 11 picks in 2016 draft, still have holes at a host of positions.

With the joint-toughest schedule in the NFL, it is natural that there is plenty of skepticism surrounding the Niners ahead of the coming season.

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However, after hiring a head coach in Chip Kelly who should greatly improve things on offense and further strengthening the defensive side of the trenches with the selection of first-round pick DeForest Buckner, 49ers fans can afford to can have some reason for optimism.

But let’s focus on the negatives for now, and look at some scenarios that could result in the 2016 campaign going terribly wrong.

Gabbert and Kaepernick both struggle

The quarterback position remains the 49ers’ biggest issue going into the 2016 season, with the team’s fortunes hinging on one of Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick playing well.

Training camp and preseason will likely be dominated by the impending position battle between the two, which — given their history — could be a depressing quarterback competition to witness.

Although Gabbert looked more poised when he came in for Kaepernick midway through last season, his QBR was actually the worse of the two, according to Football Outsiders. Kaepernick had a QBR of 47.1 — good enough for No. 29 in the league — while Gabbert ranked No. 33 after ending the year with a QBR of 42.6.

Neither of those numbers are pretty and Gabbert also has the issue of being a seemingly extremely conservative quarterback.

Gabbert ranked at No. 36 in FO’s ALEX (Air Less Expected) metric — which measures the average difference between how far a quarterback threw a pass and how many yards he needed for a first down — in passes thrown on third down.

Although he was able to win three games in 2015, Gabbert’s combination of a lack of accuracy and a conservative attitude does not make for a successful quarterback and there should be similar concerns over Kaepernick.

Kaepernick was only No.24 in the league in ALEX on third down, though the reason for that may be more of an issue with his confidence, which rapidly disappeared in 2015. In addition, Kaepernick has long since had issues with accuracy and touch, making this a potentially unappealing decision for Kelly when the time comes for him to settle on a starter.

Kelly will say otherwise and will hope one of Gabbert and Kaepernick can adapt to his system to be successful. For that to happen he will either have to rebuild Kaepernick’s confidence or have enough of an influence for Gabbert to turn around what has been a largely miserable career. If neither of those things happen, both will struggle and make it another long season for the 49ers offense.

Carlos Hyde has another injury-hit year

The success of the 49ers offense depends as much on the play at the running back position as it does the quarterback.

San Francisco would appear to have a strength at running back in the form of Carlos Hyde, who has shown great promise in his two seasons with the Niners but heads into his second year as starter with considerable concerns over his durability.

Hyde has yet to complete a full campaign in his two years as a pro and, given his style of play, there has to be considerable doubt about if he can do so this time around.

The former Ohio State Buckeye is said to be fully recovered from the stress fracture in his foot that ended his 2015 season but, despite possessing surprising elusiveness that has helped him to force 57 missed tackles in his pro career, per Pro Football Focus, Hyde’s style of running makes him a considerable injury risk.

A runner who loves contact, Hyde has spoken this offseason about how he prefers to run over defenders, per Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle:

"I’d rather just try to run through you. Let you know that I’m not running out of bounds. I’m here to play and it’s going to be all game just like this. I’m not shying away."

While that is the attitude you want from a running back, his bruising brand of rushing puts Hyde in a position to pick up more injuries in 2016, which would leave the Niners in a difficult situation with a host of backups who are not starting caliber and heighten the odds of it being another poor season for San Francisco.

The 49ers pass rush does not improve

San Francisco’s pass rush was anemic in 2015, putting up a meager 28 sacks as the defense ended the season No. 27 in the league defending the pass.

General manager Trent Baalke made moves to bolster the pass rush in the draft, adding pieces up front with the additions of first-round pick DeForest Buckner and fifth-round pick Ronald Blair.

The hope will be that Buckner, given his sheer presence in the trenches, can form a dominant duo on the D-Line with Arik Armstead capable of generating interior pass rush, which proved pivotal in the Denver Broncos’ run to the Super Bowl title last term, while opening up gaps for linebackers such as Aaron Lynch, Ahmad Brooks and Eli Harold.

With Armstead having racked up 38 pressures in his rookie year — per PFF — there is credence to the school of thought that he and Buckner should be able to transform the pass rush.

Yet it is fair to assume Buckner, who has drawn comparisons to Calais Campbell, will endure some growing pains as he makes the transition to the NFL. And, if Buckner and Armstead cannot generate the required disruption up front, then it could be a frustrating year for the guys on the edge.

Lynch and Brooks both had 6.5 sacks in 2015 but the latter is on the down swing of his career while Harold did not post a single sack in his rookie year. Tank Carradine will spend more time on the edge as he switches from D-Line but beyond Lynch the cupboard looks bare in terms of pure outside pass rushers.

San Francisco needs a strong pass rush to help a defense that is particularly young and inexperienced in the secondary to be able to cope with the extra snaps it is likely to face as a result of Kelly’s offensive system.

If Buckner and Armstead do not flourish and help open things up for Lynch and others, then this is a defense that could be in for some significant struggles in 2016 and — should the quarterbacks and tailback Hyde collectively fail to get the offense going — that will make for a potentially dreadful debut year for Kelly.

Next: San Francisco 49ers: Projecting Each Rookie's Role in 2016

All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com andSports-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated.