Why the 49ers Can Fly Under the Radar in 2016

The San Francisco 49ers had a poor 2015, finishing last in the division with a 5-11 record. After an offseason upheaval with a whole new coaching staff, the loss of some veterans and the addition of drafted rookies, very few pundits are giving the team much chance in 2016 to win football games. However, an underdog mentality may work well for this squad and they can prove the analysts wrong if they embrace this mentality.

We all know the San Francisco 49ers are given little chance to compete in 2016. There has been wide speculation about just how many games this team can win, from one, to three, to four and even as many as eight.

Indeed, Nathan Jahnke of Pro Football Focus predicts the Niners to come last in the NFC in 2016 by finishing 4-12:

"The 49ers had the second-worst record in the NFC last year, and followed that up by having one of the quietest offseasons. While DeForest Buckner should have an instant impact on the defensive line, losing players like Anquan Boldin and Alex Boone can’t help the offense. Unless Chip Kelly can get the best out of his players immediately, it will be a season of rebuilding in San Francisco."

It is true the loss of these veterans will have some impact on the team, but just how much? Boldin was the team’s No. 1 receiver last season, but No. 2 receiver Torrey Smith looks ready to take over his role. Boone had a down year by his standards, and he contributed to the porous line play. Zane Beadles is an experienced and decent enough replacement, and they drafted Joshua Garnett who won the Outland Trophy.

We can all play the prediction game, and it is easy to be all doom-and-gloom about this squad. But they are young, and they have many talented players. It is this youthfulness which can stand them in good stead this season.

Here are three key reasons why the Niners can fly under the radar and use this to their advantage in 2016.

Jun 8, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers guard Joshua Garnett (65) holds a pad for a drill during minicamp at the San Francisco 49ers Practice Facility. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports /

Teams will underestimate the Niners youthfulness

As of February, the Niners had the sixth-youngest roster in the NFL at 26.76 years of age. This included an offense which was 28.17, but when you subtract Boldin (35) and Reggie Bush (31) from this number it drops down to under 28.

This youthfulness is a benefit to the team. It brings energy, competitiveness and a fresher body. The downside is lack of league experience, but this can be gained quickly through playing games and being a key student of the game.

Other teams may think the Niners do not have the talent or the know-how to compete, and there is the potential for them to underestimate the quality of the Niners players. This should work in the team’s favor on game day.

Embracing the underdog role should be a key component to this squad. Feeling like you are being disrespected and not worthy is a great chip to carry on your shoulder during games. Provided you keep the belief in yourself and your teammates, it is irrelevant what the opposition thinks and you can make them pay for this line of thinking by soundly executing your game plan during games.

Going into each game with the underdog mentality is a great way to prove to the other team you are better than they think — collectively at the team level can lead to wins.

Jun 8, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers head coach Chip Kelly during minicamp at the San Francisco 49ers Practice Facility. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports /

Chip Kelly will get this offense on track and scoring points

We all know Kelly is known for his offensive mind and strategies. His inside-zone scheme and play speed are well renowned and it forces the defense to keep up without getting worn out.

In his first two seasons with the Philadelphia Eagles, his offenses ranked:

2013 — second in yards gained, fourth in points scored
2014 — fifth in yards gained, third in points scored

Their offense dropped to 12th and 13th, respectively, in 2015 due to a variety of reasons. However, his overall track record is still very strong.

The Niners had the worst scoring offense in 2015 at 14.9 points per game and they scored a paltry 23 total touchdowns. Though many of the top teams in today’s NFL are great on defense (e.g Denver Broncos, Carolina Panthers), you still need to score points to win games.

Kelly will utilize the talent he has on the roster. He will put them in better positions with better schemes and better play calling. He will utilize the fast players speed, and he will utilize the better route runners with effective play calling which emphasizes this strength.

He will utilize the strengths of quarterbacks Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick to maximize their effectiveness with both their arms (accurate intermediate throws and the deep ball) and their legs (designed QB scrambles).

Additionally, he will reinvigorate the running game with power sweeps, inside-zone running plays, with more screens and outside the hashes throws to the running backs in space.

In his three years in Philly his offenses averaged 26.94 points per game. As long as the Niners players stick to the schemes and execute them effectively, there is no reason this 2016 offense cannot average this same number or a little below it.

Many people are skeptical of Kelly, but he did have a winning record in Philly (26-21). Kelly himself should embrace the underdog mentality and he will be keen to prove wrong all his detractors which claim the league has caught up to him.

Kelly’s motivation should rub off on the Niners offense in 2016 to score points and win football games based on the offensive production.

Jun 8, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers inside linebacker Michael Wilhoite (57) and outside linebacker Ahmad Brooks (55) jump in the air during minicamp at the San Francisco 49ers Practice Facility. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports /

The Niners defense will be better than you think

Unfortunately, former defensive coordinator Eric Mangini did not get the best out of this defense in 2015 (18th in team defense).

His complex schemes did not work well with the youthful Niners players, and they ended up confused and quite often out of position. Injuries also played a large part in their performance — key veterans were lost such as safety Antoine Bethea and defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey.

Some of the younger players did improve as the season wore on, namely safety/corner Jimmie Ward and defensive lineman Arik Armstead. Key linebacker NaVorro Bowman led the league in tackles, despite not being 100 percent recovered from his knee injury.

Now you bring in former Cleveland Browns defensive coordinator Jim O’Neil, a wealth of young corners in the draft and a couple of very talented players to the D-line. When you throw in the return of Bethea and the further recovery of Bowman, suddenly this defense has the potential to be very good.

Based on the same metric, the Niners had the youngest defense in the league at 25.94 years of age as of February. There are going to be teams this season who will try to exploit this youthfulness with complex offenses and audibles.

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They will do this at their peril. Despite the younger average age, the Niners still boast many experienced defenders who know how to play the game — in addition to the above named players you can throw in Ian Williams, Ahmad Brooks and Tramaine Brock.

Simpler defensive schemes with an emphasis on stopping the run and getting to the QB (ala the old Vic Fangio defense) will enable the defenders to think less and react more, resulting in fewer missed assignments and players being in the wrong spots.

In 2015 the Niners defense allowed 24.19 points per game. Provided this unit is not hampered again by injuries, it is not unreasonable to suggest this unit could drop this average to around 21 points per game in 2016. If they were able to get it under 20 points per game, they would have a good chance of having a top-10 ranked league defense.

Niner Noise’s Nicholas McGee predicted multiple Niners would post double-digit sack totals in 2016. If this does occur, then the extra pressure on the opposition’s QB should result in shorter drives and more punts, which equals less scoring.

As he further points out, which is a very fair question, is how the speed of the offense will impact the defense, especially if they are on the field much longer than average. Perhaps it will be a detriment. Perhaps it won’t.

The one thing we do know is the Niners defense is young and with the right conditioning this will aid them if they are on the field longer.

If the Niners can exploit the underdog mentality by embracing it in every game and their offense and defense can successfully execute the game plans, the team as a whole can fly under the radar to begin the 2016 season.

Of course, if they start winning “unwinnable” games and we see consistent player development, then they won’t be flying under the radar for long.

But as fans, can we really complain if they are winning games?

Next: Which No. 2 49ers Running Back Will Contribute the Most?

All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com, Sports-Reference.com and 49ers.com unless otherwise indicated.