San Francisco 49ers: Early Statistical Predictions for 2016 Season
The San Francisco 49ers numbers were not pretty in 2015. Here we take an early look at whether those statistics could improve this coming season.
Impressive statistics from the 49ers 2015 season are hard to find. San Francisco was dreadful on both sides of the ball last year and finished near the bottom of the league in the majority of statistical categories.
The 49ers were No. 31 in the league in offensive yards per game, No. 29 in passing and No. 21 in rushing, finishing the year with a league-low 238 points. They topped 20 points in just four games all campaign and things were not much better on the defensive side.
San Francisco was ranked No. 29 in the league in yards allowed per game, finishing the season No. 27 against the pass and fourth-last versus the run.
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The best statistic of last term came from linebacker NaVorro Bowman, who led the league with 116 tackles in his comeback from a torn ACL and MCL. But the 49ers will need a lot more players to perform in order to improve on the 5-11 record posted in 2015.
With head coach Chip Kelly installing a coaching staff that looks markedly better than the one the Niners put together a year ago, it is fair to expect San Francisco to take some positive steps. But will the numbers be significantly more pleasing in 2016?
Here we make some early statistical predictions for Kelly’s first year in charge.
The 49ers to score at least 350 points
While the 49ers are certainly lacking in talent on offense, a major reason for their struggles on that side of the ball in 2015 was the conservative game-planning of former head coach Jim Tomsula and former offensive coordinator Geep Chryst.
Despite a disappointing final year in Philadelphia, Kelly has still shown the ability to engineer a prolific offense in both his college and NFL head coaching career.
In Kelly’s first campaign with the Eagles, they racked up 442 points before increasing that number to 474 in 2014, although Philadelphia missed the playoffs in the latter campaign.
Philadelphia managed only 342 points in the 15 games Kelly took charge of in 2015, but that was still considerably ahead of the measly total San Francisco finished the year with.
With a scheme that keeps defenses on their heels, a seemingly healthy running back Carlos Hyde and a defense that will look for first-round draft pick DeForest Buckner, second-year defensive end Arik Armstead and linebacker Aaron Lynch to generate pass rush and create turnovers, the ingredients are there for a substantial improvement in points scored.
Carlos Hyde to lead the team in all-purpose yards
Injuries may have prevented Hyde from realising his potential in his first two seasons in the NFL, but the 49ers’ starting running back is primed to enjoy a superb statistical year in 2016.
A stress fracture in his foot limited Hyde to seven games in 2015, but he still averaged 67.1 yards per game on the ground, which would have taken him over the 1,000-yard mark had he played a full season.
With his foot healed and nobody good enough to challenge him for the starting job, Hyde can expect a heavy workload going forward and, providing he can stay healthy, should comfortably surpass 1,000 rushing yards in a system heavily reliant on outside zone and stretch running plays.
Hyde holds up well as a pass protector but the main concern surrounding him has been as a receiver out of the backfield. He has 23 catches in two years with the Niners and recorded only 34 receptions in three seasons at Ohio State.
Shaun Draughn and rookie Kelvin Taylor are considered capable pass-catchers and, therefore, could compete to take a number off snaps off Hyde, but the reports from minicamp suggest he has made improvements in that area of his game.
Grant Cohn of the Santa Rosa Press Democrat praised Hyde’s performance as a receiver on the first day of minicamp:
"Made three catches out of the backfield, including a shoe-string catch on low a pass thrown by Blaine Gabbert. Don’t be shocked if Hyde catches 50 passes next season. He clearly is the 49ers’ best running back in all situations."
If Cohn’s prediction of around 50 catches comes to fruition, Hyde will easily end 2016 as the 49ers’ leader in all-purpose yards and deliver the kind of season San Francisco has been hoping for since drafting him in 2014.
Multiple 49ers to post double-digit sacks
For all the criticism he has taken, general manager Trent Baalke at least recognized that much of the Niners’ success between 2011 and 2014 was down to the strength of the defensive line, addressing that issue in back-to-back drafts.
In spending first-round picks on former Oregon duo Armstead and Buckner, the 49ers have two mammoth D-linemen who can push the pocket and generate interior pressure while also taking on double teams.
Armstead improved down the stretch in his rookie year with the Niners and ended 2015 with 38 total pressures, according to Pro Football Focus.
He will need to turn more of those pressures into sacks in the coming season and should be able to do so with opposing offensive lineman unable to ignore Buckner, who racked up 17 tackles for loss and 10.5 sacks in his final year with the Ducks.
That pair should be able to bolster the sack production from the D-line but it is the attention they will likely draw that should allow the edge rushers on the team to threaten double-digit sack totals.
Both Ahmad Brooks and Aaron Lynch had 6.5 sacks in 2015 and, in what was another strong campaign, the latter could have edged closer to double figures had he not missed two games due to injury.
Lynch has the first-step explosion and the athletic ability to take advantage of the disruption Armstead and Buckner will cause up front and, with Eli Harold bulking up to 270 pounds and Tank Carradine transitioning to outside linebacker, the 49ers have plenty of candidates to join him on double-digit sacks in 2016.
The 49ers to be among league-worst in yards allowed per game
Only three teams were worse than the 49ers in yards allowed per game in 2015, and one of them was the Philadelphia Eagles.
While the 49ers allowed 387.4 yards per game last season, the Eagles gave up 401.6 yards each week on average.
The impact on the defense is one of the primary reasons why Kelly’s fast-paced offensive system has attracted such vehement criticism from many commentators.
That criticism is well-founded, as the Eagles also gave up 375.6 yards per game in 2014 having allowed an average of 394 a year earlier in Kelly’s first season.
More of the same should be expected with the 49ers, who are deep on the defensive line but do not have sufficient depth in other areas to cope with how often the defense will be on the field.
How the defense performs will largely depend on the scheme put together by coordinator Jim O’Neil. However, San Francisco’s defense — particularly with its young and inexperienced secondary — will likely struggle under the strain of supporting Kelly’s high-tempo offense and at least be in the bottom 10 in the league in yards allowed in 2016.
The 49ers to win more than 5 games
San Francisco owns the toughest strength of schedule in 2016 and, for a team in rebuilding, it would therefore seem tough for the 49ers to improve on their five-win total from 2015.
After a winnable home opener against the Los Angeles Rams, the 49ers face the Carolina Panthers, Seattle Seahawks, Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals in successive weeks and also have the rather sizeable challenge of taking on the New England Patriots in Week 11.
But the Niners also meet teams they beat in 2015 in the Atlanta Falcons and Chicago Bears and should not be overly daunted by matchups with the Buffalo Bills, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orelans Saints, Miami Dolphins and New York Jets — none of whom made the playoffs last term.
Vegas has set the line for 49ers wins at 5.5 games in 2016 but what has to be taken into account is that San Francisco was able to post a 5-11 record last year despite the considerable shortcomings of its coaching staff, while also running the Cardinals and the New York Giants close.
The Niners have a much more talented staff this time around and, having bolstered both sides of the trenches in the offseason, are in a better position to compete and win at least six games under Kelly’s stewardship.
Next: San Francisco 49ers: Winners and Losers from 2016 Minicamp
All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro Football Reference unless otherwise indicated.