How the San Francisco 49ers Can Win the NFC West in 2016

A lot would have to go right for the San Francisco 49ers to come away with the NFC West divisional crown in 2016. With rival powerhouses like the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals on top right now, how would the Niners stand a chance to even contend for this seemingly impossible goal? Niner Noise takes a look.

Envision a scenario in which the San Francisco 49ers, somehow, find a way to not only contend for the NFC West title, but figure out a situation in which they are named division champions in 2016.

It’s hard, isn’t it.

According to most experts and pundits, the 49ers are likely going to be a bottom-dwelling team for the upcoming season. To back this up, let’s take a look at CBS Sports‘ projected draft order in 2017. San Francisco is slated to pick second next year — just behind the Cleveland Browns — which means the Niners aren’t going to be anywhere close to a .500 record.

Other mock drafts probably don’t sway too far from the No. 2 overall pick.

So this means the 2016 49ers will be bad — really bad. And why should it be anything but this taking place this season?

Even if San Francisco had a dynamic, proven and talent-laden team, this upcoming season would be tough. According to John Breech of CBS Sports, the Niners — and the Atlanta Falcons, for that matter — own the toughest 2016 schedule. Opponents’ winning percentages from last year come it at .555, which is highest out of all 32 NFL teams.

The 49ers, an up-and-coming group consisting mainly of young and developing players, don’t stand a chance, right?

Probably not. But as any casual football fan can tell you, perception isn’t reality. And that reality won’t be revealed until all 17 weeks of the regular season are in the books.

Is it possible for the 49ers to possibly find their way to the division crown this season? Absolutely. Anything is possible. Is it likely? Probably not.

But let’s focus on the former and see how such a lofty goal might come to fruition.

Kelly’s Heroes

Niner Noise staff writer Bryan Knowles used this as a title for one of his slides in a recent article, which just so happened to chronicle why the 49ers may be better than you think, and I can’t avoid stealing the thunder from such an awesome World War II movie.

Of course, we’re talking about head coach Chip Kelly. Will Kelly be the magic “elixir” to suddenly transform this 49ers team into something not only relevant but, potentially, worthy of a division crown?

To start, let’s take a look at the numbers. When the Philadelphia Eagles hired Kelly in 2013, the team was coming off a 4-12 season.

Kelly subsequently posted back-to-back 10-win seasons — nearly doubling the offensive output and cutting back on total points allowed by a notable margin. According to Football Outsiders, the Eagles’ DVOA efficiency ranking came in at plus-15.2 percent in 2013 (eighth in the league), which was up from minus-22.4 percent the year prior (28th in the league).

The Eagles DVOA efficiency in 2014 was also high — plus-12.8 percent, which ranked seventh. While Kelly’s 2015 efforts showed a sharp decline, it’s safe to say Kelly is competent enough to turn scuffling franchises around.

There is the argument Kelly-led offenses are gimmicky and the rest of the NFL finally caught up after two notable seasons in 2013 and 2014. This is the opinion of NFL analyst Mark Schlereth, who stated such on Sacramento’s ESPN affiliate, 1320 AM. I recall him saying something like, “Call me when the 49ers decide to return the NFL” as he referenced Kelly’s offense and coaching style.

Here’s the thing about good coaches though — they draw up schemes in order to maximize the available talent on the roster. Where Kelly lost was when he tried to adjust a roster to the scheme he wanted to run. It didn’t work in Philadelphia in 2015, but he won’t have that option in Santa Clara.

And if there’s one area in which the Niners need help, it’s on offense. San Francisco ranked dead last on this side of the ball last season (238 points scored) so, if the defense can hold its own, any offensive improvement could drastically affect the 49ers’ chances of winning.

Speaking of the defense…

The Defense Is Better Than You Think

At least that’s what we’d all like to believe.

Well, maybe we should. San Francisco spent considerable effort upgrading the defense this offseason. The 49ers’ first-round pick in the 2016 NFL Draft was spent on standout collegiate defensive end DeForest Buckner who, paired with former Oregon teammate Arik Armstead, could prove to be a wrecking force along the Niners’ formidable defensive line.

Yes, the San Francisco D-line is a strength. Combined with an effective pass rush, a formidable front seven can wreak havoc on opposing offenses. The Denver Broncos proved how this can work en route to victory in Super Bowl 50.

OK, so the Niners front-seven defense isn’t anywhere near this caliber. But, if players like Buckner, Armstead, Aaron Lynch and NaVorro Bowman can provide substantial impact, the 49ers may not be as vulnerable as one might think.

Vulnerability is a key question when focusing on a Kelly-led squad. One common misnomer is Kelly’s offenses have one speed: fast as hell. And this puts his defenses at a disadvantage, right?

Well, not necessarily. Going back to Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA, we see the Eagles actually ranked 10th in the league, overall, in 2014. This particular unit was susceptible to giving up large amounts of yards through the air — second most in the NFL with 4,238 allowed — but this leads us to the Niners’ next defensive X-factor.

San Francisco stocked up on cornerbacks in the draft. The team added rookie corners Will Redmond, Rashard Robinson and Prince Charles Iworah to compete with incumbents like Tramaine Brock, Kenneth Acker, Dontae Johnson and Keith Reaser. Throw in nickel back Jimmie Ward, and there’s some hefty competition within this group.

Not all of these aforementioned players will emerge as respectable defensive backs. But there’s a good chance some of them do. And, paired with an improved front seven, perhaps the 49ers secondary look, you know, pretty good.

The NFC West

San Francisco doesn’t receive any help from its division rivals. Let’s get the easiest opponent out of the way first.

The Los Angeles Rams are probably the only team with which the 49ers have a legitimate chance to beat out for the cellar-dwellar spot this season. Last year, the Rams finished with a 7-9 mark and were nearly as bad on offense as the 49ers.

• 49ers ranked 32nd in total points in 2015 with 238.
• Rams ranked 29th in total points in 2015 with 280.
• 49ers ranked 31st in all-purpose yards in 2015 with 4,860.
• Rams ranked 32nd in all-purpose yards in 2015 with 4,761.

Los Angeles will likely be looking to get rookie quarterback Jared Goff into the mix as soon as possible. The team wanted to make a splash after moving out from St. Louis, and it did so by moving up to the No. 1 spot in the draft to select Goff.

Goff will take some time to develop. And while the Rams defense remains good, who knows how the offense will formulate outside of standout running back Todd Gurley.

And do you have much faith in a Jeff Fisher-led team?

No, the Rams won’t be contending for a divisional crown anytime soon. But the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks are in position to come away with an NFC West championship.

Let’s get the Cardinals out of the way next.

Arizona is deep, talented and, in all intensive purposes, on the cusp of getting to a Super Bowl. But oh so much of this relies on veteran quarterback Carson Palmer and his ability to stay healthy. In 2015, he did. And the Cardinals rode a 13-3 record all the way to the NFC Championship game.

But who could forget 2014 — the year in which Palmer’s season was cut short in Week 10 due to injury — and what happened to the team thereafter.

The Cardinals went into a total tailspin and couldn’t manage more than 18 points in any of their remaining games, including a 27-16 loss to the Carolina Panthers in the Wild Card round.

It’s never a good thing to hinge and/or hope a team’s most-pivotal player goes down with an injury. But it’s an all-too realistic factor, which can totally thwart a team’s chances at any point in a season.

Lastly, we can’t overlook the Seahawks — San Francisco’s nemesis.

When will Seattle’s dominance within the division come to a close? There were cracks at the beginning of the season last year, but the Seahawks finally put things together en route to a 10-win season after winning eight of their last 10 regular-season games.

Yet the Seahawks have the same offensive line questions the 49ers faced a year ago. True, Seattle made its own adjustments, but will these pan out? Or will the Seahawks, possibly, find themselves in a situation where they are no longer the powerhouse they once were not that long ago?

Remember, Seattle lost a good deal of talent during the offseason.

And while the schedule the 49ers face in 2016 is going to be difficult, any NFL fan can attest to how quickly seemingly unbeatable teams can fall in short order.

Such is the parity of the NFL.

The Colin Kaepernick Factor

San Francisco’s best chances to regain any sort of respectability, and even contend for a division title, will fall upon the shoulders of quarterback Colin Kaepernick.

No, we shouldn’t automatically assume this happens regardless of any influence from Kelly or the 49ers coaching staff. It’s entirely possible Kaepernick regresses further, doesn’t improve at all or even loses out on the starting job to fellow QB Blaine Gabbert.

But I think most 49ers fans would agree Kaepernick has the higher ceiling and potential impact out of the two.

Kaepernick may never be the type of quarterback he was back in 2012 and 2013. But to say he’ll never come close to those numbers is asinine. His raw skill set and capability didn’t just disappear overnight. Teams adjusted to him, and now it falls on Kap’s shoulders to make his own adjustments.

Toss out any of the front-office issues compounding Kaepernick’s tenure in San Francisco for a moment. Let’s say, hypothetically, Kaepernick manages to rediscover the same sort of magic he displayed not long ago and is able to resurrect his career to a respectable point.

Well now… suddenly the 49ers have some offensive pieces. And hey, Kelly turned quarterbacking nobodies/busts Nick Foles and Sam Bradford.

Is even remotely possible Kaepernick’s career goes through a sort of second coming under Kelly?

Absolutely.

If so, the 49ers offense will have some dynamic pieces in place. There are upgrades to the offensive line and running game, a young crop of wide receivers in place and the chance Kaepernick, somehow, rediscovers his mojo.

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So how does all this translate into a NFC West championship for the 49ers?

Well, a lot — and I mean a lot — would have to go 100 percent correctly for San Francisco. The team would have to get maximum effort from the guys we’d all expect, and a few others we didn’t, along the way.

And the 49ers would need plenty of help too. The rest of the division would have to experience additional shortcomings and issues — no guarantee that happens. At all.

San Francisco would also have to knock off more than a few tougher and, for all intensive purposes, better teams while working through a grueling 2016 season.

Still, stranger things have happened. So maybe a Cinderella story of sorts is due in Santa Clara this year.

We can only hope.

Next: 5 Reasons Why the 49ers Will be Better than You Think in 2016

All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and Sports-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated.