Why Quarterback Is the 49ers Biggest Need in 2016 NFL Draft

Sep 21, 2014; Glendale, AZ, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick (7) and quarterback Blaine Gabbert (2) take the field for warmups prior to the game against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports /

The San Francisco 49ers have many needs, none more important than what goes on behind center.

As is fitting for a team that went 5-11 last season, the San Francisco 49ers have a wide variety of needs. The offensive line, which gave up more than 50 sacks in each of the last two seasons, needs a complete overhaul. The skill positions do not have weapons that frighten opposing defensive coordinators. Patrick Willis has never been replaced at inside linebacker. The 49ers had just 28 sacks last season, so adding an edge rusher to help take the load off of Aaron Lynch would be a big help. The 49ers do not have a true shut-down cornerback to help stop the passing game, either. Any and all of these positions could be justified with a first-round pick.

However, as long as the NFL remains a passing league, and as long as the 49ers do not have a long-term plan in place at the position, quarterback will remain their biggest need.

Colin Kaepernick has regressed in each of the past three seasons, going from a stellar, exciting player to a solid option to a questionable option to, finally, a bad option last year. He has declined in average net yards per attempt in each of the past three seasons. The only quarterback who suffered a more severe drop than Kaepernick has was Aaron Brooks, who was out of the league the year after. The only other quarterbacks as young as Kaepernick to regress in three consecutive years were Pat Haden, Jeff Blake, Bernie Kosar, Rick Mirer and Ken O’Brien—not exactly a murderer’s row of players.

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If you’re counting on Kaepernick to turn things around, you’re holding on to hope from two seasons ago at this point. While it would not be entirely unprecedented for a player to bounce back after that—look at the case of Boomer Esiason—it seems unlikely that such a rebound would happen in the fraught atmosphere that exists between Kapernick and 49ers management. While the 49ers have the salary cap space to hold on to Kaepernick rather than take a sub-par trade offer for him, counting on him for the future seems overly-optimistic.

November 8, 2015; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick (7) looks on next to quarterback Blaine Gabbert (2) during the second quarter against the Atlanta Falcons at Levi’s Stadium. The 49ers defeated the Falcons 17-16. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports /

What about Blaine Gabbert? He definitely played better than Kaepernick last season, and is likely the leader in the clubhouse to start in 2016.

However, just because Gabbert outplayed Kaepernick doesn’t mean he actually played well; Football Outsiders’ advanced metrics had Gabbert as the sixth-worst quarterback in football last season, compared to Kaepernick’s third-worst. QBR doesn’t paint a much better picture, with Gabbert actually coming in below Kaepernick there.

In addition, Gabbert was terrible as a starter in Jacksonville, and not just by a little bit. While there have been worse players to play the position, few get as many opportunities to be as poor as Gabbert was. The only quarterback I have ever seen who has done more harm on the field was Ryan Leaf, and that’s not a player you want to be compared to. Since 1980, only 9 passers have had as many attempts as Gabbert but a lower adjusted net yards per attempt, and he’s 27^th in passer rating. If advanced stats aren’t your thing, the only quarterback since 1950 to throw 1,000 passes and have fewer than Gabbert’s eight wins as a starter was Randy Wright.

Some of that you can write off as being a player on horrible Jacksonville squads from 2011-2013, or from youth and inexperience, but other young and inexperienced players have played quarterback for other horrible teams and done better than Gabbert. Is it impossible that Gabbert will turn things around and become an adequate NFL starter? No, but his NFL track record is not something that supports him being the player you build your team around. Counting on him for the future seems overly-optimistic as well.

The 49ers have other quarterbacks on the roster as well—Thad Lewis and Dylan Thompson. Neither seem to be anything more than back-of-the-bench fodder, though crazier things have happened.

Oct 19, 2014; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning (18) and San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick (7) after the game at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports /

But, you might say, the Denver Broncos just showed you can win a Super Bowl without having a great quarterback. Peyton Manning played even worse than Colin Kaepernick did and Brock Osweiler was only so-so—they were carried by a ferocious defense. Doesn’t that prove you don’t need a star quarterback and can rely on defense to win championships? The 2000 Ravens are another model; they won with Trent Dilfer, so shouldn’t the 49ers build on defense, making edge rusher or inside linebacker their biggest position of need?

The numbers don’t really back that up. Yes, you don’t “need” a great quarterback to win a Super Bowl, just like you don’t need a left tackle or a ferocious pass rush or a great head coach to do it—there are multiple ways to construct a great team. Still, nothing in the NFL correlates to wins more than having a good year behind center.

Yes, Denver won the Super Bowl with Osweiler and Manning, both rated low in QBR, but nine of the twelve playoff teams had a top 12 quarterback in the stat—Arizona (Carson Palmer), Pittsburgh (Ben Roethlisberger), Seattle (Russel Wilson), Cincinnati (Andy Dalton), Washington (Kirk Cousins), Kansas City (Alex Smith), Carolina (Cam Newton), Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers) and New England (Tom Brady). Minnesota’s Teddy Bridgewater just misses at number 13, as well. Similar stats happen if you look at Football Outsider’s ratings or traditional quarterback rating or any advanced metric. A good quarterback is neither necessary nor sufficient to a great team, but no single position in football is better correlated with success than quarterback.

It’s a passing first league, and becoming more so. No individual statistic correlates more with winning than passing numbers, and no statistic correlates more with scoring points than yards per attempt. It’s a league for consistent, accurate passers—and the rest of us are just living in it. Can you win without a good quarterback? Yes, you can—but it’s taking a hard road, and should only be traveled out of necessity.

With the recent trades that have sent the Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles up the draft board, it seems implausible that the 49ers will draft a quarterback with the seventh overall pick. While I have seen mocks that have them reaching to grab Memphis’ Paxton Lynch at number seven, such a pick would be a reach. The 49ers would be better off taking a Laremy Tunsil, a Ronnie Stanley, a Joey Bosa or even a Jack Conklin with the seventh pick. Yes, quarterback is their biggest need, but it’s not a big enough need to throw value entirely out the window; taking a non-Wentz or Goff quarterback at number seven is a reach and should be avoided.

The next tier of quarterbacks, and the two remaining names who I believe would be sufficient for pointing to a long-term plan at the starting quarterback position. They are Connor Cook of Michigan State and Paxton Lynch of Memphis. I feel that all the other quarterbacks—your Christian Hackenbergs, for example—have too many question marks to pencil into a starting role in the near future, though some of them undoubtedly will at least earn a shot.

Lynch has the higher ceiling and the lower floor—he’s another duel-threat-type quarterback, though more pass-oriented than Colin Kaepernick is. He could probably use a year of seasoning on the bench, which would allow the 49ers to give one year to Gabbert or Kaepernick to see what they can do in Chip Kelly’s system before making a final determination at the position next year. Cook is a four-year starter and is ready to start immediately, but his ceiling might be more Alex Smith than anything else. That’s not necessarily a bad thing—most 49ers fans would love to undo the trade that sent Smith to the Kansas City Chiefs at the moment—but it’s not as exciting as Lynch’s potential.

Quarterbacks are always over-priced in the draft, and with Wentz and Goff likely going 1-2, both Cook and Lynch are likely to see their stock rise, as well. I don’t believe either Cook or Lynch are worth the seventh pick in the draft, and ideally, I’d love the 49ers to be able sit back at 37 and take one that falls to them. I am concerned, however, that the movements at the top of the draft will make that less likely.

That raises the question of how far up I would be willing to move if I were the 49ers. The answer for me is single digits—from 37 to the bottom part of the first round. If one, and only one, of Cook or Lynch are available towards the end of the first night of the draft, I would call the Kansas Citys, Arizonas and Carolinas of the world, offering to give up the 37^th pick and a package of third-day selections to move up and take either Cook or Lynch. I could also get behind something like trading the 37^th pick and then swapping third-round picks with Arizona or Carolina, though the 49ers have enough picks that they can probably afford to give up a few more to make a sensible move up the draft board.

Another interesting option would be to move down. Let’s imagine a scenario that, when the 49ers were on the clock at pick seven, saw both the top quarterbacks gone. Tackles Laremy Tunsil and Ronnie Stanley are gone, too, as is the top defender in the draft in Joey Bosa. The 49ers could sit still and take a shot at the injury risk of Myles Jack or the stout lineman DeForest Buckner, but trading back will become a more enticing option at this point.

The Tennessee Titans just got a passel of draft picks from trading out of the top slot; they may be willing to give up a few to move back up slightly. The 49ers could trade back to the 15^th pick, picking up one of Tennessee’s three second-rounders in return. They could then take the temperature again at that point and, if both quarterbacks are available again, they could try to move back once more.

I ran a couple mocks of this scenario over on Fanspeak, and I was able, in one scenario, to grab the following haul by the top of the fourth round:

QB Connor Cook, Michigan State
WR Corey Coleman, Baylor
OT Jason Spriggs, Indiana
C/G Nick Martin, Notre Dame
ILB Nick Kwiatkoswki, West Virginia
OLB Joe Schobert, Wisconsin

That, to me, looks like a very solid class, addressing needs on both offense and defense with five picks in the top 70. That’s the dream scenario for the 49ers at this point—the ability to trade down multiple times, still get a top-four quarterback, finding players to protect him and for him to throw the ball to, and then shoring up the defense with solid mid-round picks. If the 49ers could also spend the cash to get the recently-available Josh Norman at cornerback atop all of that, you have the core of a solid rebuild right there.

Of course, if the 49ers do (wisely) pass on a quarterback with the seventh pick, there’s every chance that both Lynch and Goff will be gone by the time the 49ers get back onto the clock. I don’t think you reach and take Penn State’s Christian Hackenberg with the 37^th pick—accept your losses, pick a talented player elsewhere and move on—but giving up, say, the 68^th pick and a 2^nd round pick next season to move back into the middle of the second round and take him wouldn’t be the worst decision in the world, as I don’t think he’d fall to 68. Finding a way to trade back into the third round for North Carolina State’s Jacoby Brissett is another option, though I don’t feel he’s worth the 68^th pick.

No, if the 49ers don’t get one of the top four quarterbacks, and don’t want to trade draft picks around to try to grab another, they’re best off waiting for day three, and that doesn’t really address the position in any real way. I don’t think I’d go so far as to say the draft is a failure if the 49ers don’t grab one of the top four, but failing to do so leaves the biggest question mark the team has unanswered. It may well be that the 49ers are never in a good position to grab a quarterback, and that smarter picks will be available each and every time the 49ers are on the clock. It may well be that, despite their abundance of draft capital, they will find themselves unable to trade into position for a quarterback, either. Somethings, bad things happen and the team can only do the best they can in the situation they find themselves in.

Not coming out of the draft with a top-four passer, however, is undoubtedly a disappointment, and will leave the 49ers biggest question mark unanswered for yet another year.

Next: Six Steps to a Successful Draft Class

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