San Francisco 49ers: Why It’s Silly to Over-evaluate 2016 NFL Schedule
By Peter Panacy
The San Francisco 49ers will have a pretty tough schedule in 2016. According to the numbers, the Niners actually have the toughest schedule based on records from a year ago. Yet one shouldn’t read too much into this or how it affects the 49ers plans this season.
The 2016 NFL schedule has been released and, according to John Breech of CBS Sports, the San Francisco 49ers own the toughest slate of regular-season games on the upcoming calendar.
San Francisco’s opponents this year boasted a regular-season record of 142-114 in 2015. That amounts to a .555 winning percentage, which is actually tied with the Atlanta Falcons for best among teams’ opponents.
Breech wrote in his breakdown:
"Based on 2015 records, the 49ers and the Falcons will play the toughest schedule in the NFL next season. By the way, if you’re wondering why the NFL scheduling formula’s not always perfect, the 49ers are a good example: Although they’re playing a “last place” schedule, they still have the hardest slate in the league in 2016.The meat of the 49ers schedule comes from their division: The Niners have to play both the Seahawks (10-6) and Cardinals (13-3) twice in 2016.The 49ers also will be playing every team in the AFC East, which means a game against the Patriots. Overall, the Niners will play three of the four teams that played in the NFC and AFC Championship games."
Here’s a look at the full schedule, courtesy of the team’s website:
| Monday, Sept. 12 | Los Angeles | 7:20 p.m. |
ESPN
Sunday, Sept. 18@ Carolina
10:00 a.m.
FOX
Sunday, Sept. 25@ Seattle
1:05 p.m.
FOX
Sunday, Oct. 2Dallas
1:25 p.m.
FOX
Thursday, Oct. 6Arizona
5:25 p.m.
CBS/NFLN/Twitter
Sunday, Oct. 16@ Buffalo
10:00 a.m.
FOX
Sunday, Oct. 23Tampa Bay
1:05 p.m.
FOX
Sunday, Oct. 30BYESunday, Nov. 6New Orleans
1:05 p.m.
FOX
Sunday, Nov. 13@ Arizona
1:25 p.m.
FOX
Sunday, Nov. 20New England
1:25 p.m.
CBS
Sunday, Nov. 27@ Miami
10:00 a.m.
FOX
Sunday, Dec. 4@ Chicago
10:00 a.m.
FOX
Sunday, Dec. 11New York Jets
1:05 p.m.
CBS
Sunday, Dec. 18@ Atlanta
1:05 p.m.
FOX
Saturday, Dec. 24@ Los Angeles
1:25 p.m.
FOX
Sunday, Jan. 1Seattle
1:25 p.m.
FOX
Yeah, there are some tough games on there. San Francisco will face off against the two best teams in the NFC from a year ago — the conference-champion Carolina Panthers and NFC West division-winning Arizona Cardinals, with the latter facing off against the 49ers twice.
Road games, or any game for that matter, against the Seattle Seahawks figures to be a tough bout. And the New England Patriots will prove to be a legitimate contender until, well, they aren’t any longer.
Aside from the two games versus the Los Angeles Rams, and even those could go either way, there aren’t exactly any lopsided contests in San Francisco’s favor. So the pessimists among us could easily view 2016 as a possible three- or four-win season for the Niners.
But let’s hold up here for a second.
Why even concern ourselves with such a breakdown? True, Niner Noise put together a way-too early prediction for each regular-season game this year. It’s fun, possibly accurate and, in all reality, provides us little more than a first-take look based on what we know now.
And so much can change between now and Week 1. So here’s why it’s silly to overthink the schedule.
The NFL Draft
One of the major reasons why it’s impossible to predict NFL schedule outcomes is how much the NFL Draft impacts teams’ plans and abilities.
Who will be the next wave of standout rookies making headlines for themselves and impacting their respective teams? The next Odell Beckham Jr. is out there… somewhere.
Bringing it closer to home, the 49ers own 12 picks in the upcoming draft — the most out of all 32 teams. Out of that crop of picks, let’s say six wind up being NFL-worthy players capable of providing an impact to a team in need of such contributions.
Could a stud rookie defensive lineman or linebacker suddenly make the Niners’ front seven a major force, and/or will San Francisco grab an offensive lineman who can immediately turn around the team’s O-line woes on the right side?
The 49ers are full of holes, but this roster has been far worse off before (2004, anyone?).
Granted, the teams San Francisco will face have their waves of incoming prospects as well. But, as any fan can tell you, the league fluctuates at a level which makes early predictions almost impossible.
Speaking of fluctuation…
The Parity of the NFL
Watch this game long enough, and you’ll soon realize how precarious and difficult it is for teams to stay at an elite level.
What the Patriots have done for the better part of two decades is remarkable. But this is more of an exception than a rule. NFL teams wind up rising and falling all the time. General managers, scouts and executives are always vying to keep, or get, their respective clubs to the top. But the processes to do so aren’t, by any means, an exact science.
Case in point, let’s look at the 2014 49ers — the last year of former head coach Jim Harbaugh’s reign.
That team finished 8-8 despite three consecutive NFC Championship appearances and one Super Bowl berth. And the Niners of that year were still regarded as elite with relatively little roster turnover at the time.
True, San Francisco was suffering from its own infighting and front-office issues — elements of which likely trickled down onto the field in one way or another. And yet those problems aren’t exclusive to the 49ers either.
Teams also rise up, seemingly, from out of nowhere. Who would have thought the Washington Redskins, albeit from a weak NFC East division, would be playoff bound last season in spite of seemingly endless issues throughout the organization?
So last year’s Panthers, Seahawks, Cardinals or any other top-notch team could wind up being this year’s next version of underachievers or vice versa.
Injuries, Injuries, Injuries
Just as crucial, and perhaps even moreso, of a factor is the ever-present concern with injuries.
Teams try to adequately prepare for this all-too present NFL reality. Depth on a franchise is just as important as having a talent-laden roster. Because, in all truth, every team is a handful of serious injuries away from an awful season.
Take a look at what happened with Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo last year as an example. Romo’s shoulder injury, and the team’s subsequent issues under center, played a major role in Dallas finishing 4-12 in a weak division.
Pick any starting quarterback on a good team, remove him from the equation and you’ll find how a team can go from a playoff contender to the cellar in quick order.
True, some teams can withstand the damage. The 2008 Patriots finished 11-5 despite losing quarterback Tom Brady to a season-ending knee injury in Week 1. But this isn’t always the case.
Injuries, even at just a handful of crucial positions, can derail a team’s chances. And they never come at a “perfect” or best-case-scenario time.
So pay attention to the injury reports right when organized team activities start. They’ll be just as big a factor as records and power rankings.
Why It Doesn’t Matter Anyway
It would be wonderful if the 49ers, somehow, shocked the NFL world and wound up going 10-6, 11-5 or, heck, undefeated in 2016. Boy, wouldn’t that be great after what this franchise has gone through recently.
But the likely reality of this situation points to San Francisco not being very good this season. No, the 49ers aren’t contending for a division title and they probably aren’t going to be playoff bound in head coach Chip Kelly’s first year at the helm.
So fans should pay little attention to the record this year. Yes, the NFL is a wins-and-losses league. That’s all that matters. But the 49ers’ primary focal point should be developing this roster to the best of their abilities.
When Week 17 comes to a close, and the Niners finish with a four-, five- or a six-win season (speculation rules supreme), fans should be more concerned with how the on-roster players are coming together.
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We should be saying, “Hey, that rookie or second-year pro looked pretty darn good this year. I want to see more of him in 2017 and beyond.” Or, “Carlos Hyde finally broke out, and Arik Armstead is going to be a force in this league.”
Think long-term scenarios here. Forget about the record. What will be the building blocks for this team moving forward?
That’s your concern. And it’s why the schedule matters little to none in 2016.
Next: Way Too Early Win-Loss Predictions for 49ers 2016 Season
All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and Sports-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated.