2016 NFL Draft: Why 49ers Should Trade Down for Darron Lee
The 49ers are unlikely to trade up in the 2016 NFL Draft but history suggests they are strong candidates to trade back, and Darron Lee is a player they could target with such a deal.
Trading up has rarely been a move made by 49ers general manager Trent Baalke in the draft, but there have been rumblings San Francisco could jump from pick No. 7 and do a deal with the Tennessee Titans for the first overall pick.
Bleacher Report’s Jason Cole reported the 49ers and Titans have held discussions over a trade for the No. 1 pick and, if the Niners were to move to the top spot in the draft, it would surely be a deal made to secure one of the top two quarterback prospects in the class, Jared Goff and Carson Wentz.
The issue with talk of a trade up, though, is that the 49ers have too many holes in need of addressing to mortgage their future by likely giving up multiple picks in this year’s and next year’s draft to grab a quarterback.
Instead it is more likely that Baalke trades down from No. 7 to acquire more picks as he attempts to rebuild a roster dismantled by retirements and a free agent exodus in 2015.
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And Ohio State linebacker Darron Lee is a player the 49ers should consider trading down for and one who can become a centerpiece of their defense.
The retirements of Patrick Willis and Chris Borland have left the 49ers short-handed at inside linebacker when you compare their current options to what they had in 2013.
Three years ago Willis and NaVorro Bowman were both at the top of their game and were the best inside linebacker duo in the NFL.
Bowman enjoyed an All-Pro year in his return from a serious knee injury in 2015 but was clearly some way from his best, struggling in coverage and relying on his outstanding instincts to excel with the athleticism he once possessed now appearing to be a thing of the past.
But, with Willis and Borland – who enjoyed an outstanding rookie campaign in 2014 before his retirement – both unexpectedly giving up the game, it was the spot next to Bowman that proved an issue last season.
Much like Bowman, Michael Wilhoite lacks the athleticism to be consistently effective in coverage. Gerald Hodges was an improvement on Wilhoite when he came into the starting lineup, but the 49ers could certainly use a physically gifted young linebacker with the ability to excel against the run and in coverage.
It is 50-50 whether UCLA’s Myles Jack will be available at No. 7 and, if he is not and the 49ers are not in a position to take a quarterback, then they would be well served by doing a deal to move back and draft Lee, who has demonstrated the talent and athletic ability and put up numbers to suggest he can successfully partner Bowman.
CBS Sports rate Lee as the No. 12 overall prospect in the draft but it would not be a reach to take him at pick No. 10, held by the New York Giants.
The Giants have needs in the secondary and could use help on the offensive line and in rushing the passer, so it is fair to assume they would have some interest in a move up.
Per Drafttek, the No. 7 pick has a value of 1500 points, while the No. 10 selection is worth 1300.
To make a trade fair for both sides, the Giants could offer the Niners their third-rounder – worth 235 points – as well as their first with San Francisco giving its first of three fifth-round picks, which has a value of 34.5, in addition to its opening selection.
With the deal tilting in the Niners’ favour by only 0.5 points, such a trade would be just about fair and Lee’s tape shows plenty of reasons why they should pull the trigger on such a move.
No. 1 among off-line-of-scrimmage linebackers in Zach Whitman’s SPARQ rankings that measure athleticism, Lee ran the 40-yard dash in 4.43 seconds and the speed is evident on film.
Lee is able to close extremely quickly when attacking downhill against the run and moving sideline-to-sideline, demonstrating impressive lateral speed.
The above play is a superb example of the speed Lee has to get downhill in a hurry, he spies the quarterback throughout and, when he realises DeShone Kizer is going to run, flies to the ball and brings him down with an albeit scruffy tackle.
Lee is just as quick running across the field and displayed his ability to move sideline-to-sideline in the inaugural College Football Playoff at the end of the 2014 season, with this tackle for a loss on Amari Cooper in which he has no trouble tracking down a player who is already one of the better receivers in the NFL serving as further proof of his athleticism.
A determined run defender who takes excellent angles to the football, Lee is also able to have an impact in coverage because of the speed he possesses, which at least gives him a chance of keeping pace with wide receivers.
Capable of mirroring the routes of wideouts, Ohio State had considerable faith in Lee in coverage, deploying him in man in the slot and on the outside as well as in zone over the middle.
Lee’s skills in coverage speak to his versatility, which is further evident when he is asked to rush the passer. On the below play, Lee proves too quick and too agile for the offensive guard and has strong enough hands to swat the blocker away and bring Kizer down for the sack, forcing the turnover with a heavy hit on contact.
For all his considerable plus points, there are some issues that may put some teams off pursuing Lee. Slightly undersized at 6’0″ and 232 pounds, Lee can struggle significantly when fronted up by blockers and lacks a secondary pass-rush move when he is unable to win with speed.
There is also an irritating tendency for Lee to miss tackles in the open field as a result of him going for a big hit rather than just settling for making a sure tackle.
But habits like that can be ironed out and his considerable upside should be enough to convince teams Lee is worth investing in.
Lee may not have the same buzz as Jack but has a similar athletic makeup, extremely impressive speed, strong production with 146 tackles, 27 for a loss and 11 sacks in two seasons, and – perhaps most importantly for the Niners – has shown proficiency in coverage.
The 49ers need someone to depend on at inside linebacker to take the pressure off Bowman and give them a duo that teams fear once again. Lee is a player with all-round skill set to do that and, if the 49ers see nobody they like at No. 7, San Francisco should look to do a deal with the Giants or another team to move back and get excellent an excellent value pick in the former Buckeye.
Next: San Francisco 49ers: Breaking Down the Secondary Before the 2016 NFL Draft