San Francisco 49ers and the Anthony Davis Conundrum

The San Francisco 49ers are approaching the 2016 NFL Draft with question marks throughout the roster. Right tackle Anthony Davis has “guaranteed” his return but the expectations of fans are indicative of a larger problem for the organization.

The San Francisco 49ers have a major problem. Okay, that’s not exactly news. The roster hasn’t undergone much change after finishing the 2015 season with a 5-11 record that left them far behind the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick has expressed interest in playing for another team. New head coach Chip Kelly is coming from a disappointing season leading the Philadelphia Eagles.

All of these issues, however, pale in comparison to the biggest issue facing the San Francisco 49ers in 2016. The Anthony Davis conundrum.

Yes, we’ve given the issue a title. Unfortunately, the reality is that the issue extends beyond former-49ers right tackle Anthony Davis.

Davis has “guaranteed” his return in 2016 after sitting out a year to address his health. The fact that Davis advocated for his own well-being is commendable. But the team was forced to scramble to cover his position after the draft. Davis played a position that they believed to be settled. Moving forward, they are still left unsure of where exactly things with Davis stand.

Davis can guarantee his return as much as he would like. Until he files paperwork and participates in offseason training, the team has to prepare as though he is not in playing shape and is not the same player that he was when he decided to step away. None of this is a knock on Davis. It is the state of the franchise today.

And Anthony Davis is not the only player that falls into the category of projections.

Davis’ return represents a larger problem for the 49ers. The front office, coaching staff and fanbase are all making hefty projections and guesses about how the team will improve in 2016.

The Anthony Davis conundrum is the reality that this 49ers roster is full of holes and hopeful guesses about how players will perform in 2016.

That’s common for many teams. But they are all bad teams. Ideally, coaches are able to get the most out of players. The young guys on the roster develop from year-to-year and older veterans are able to reach levels of play that they hadn’t before.

In the case of the 49ers, fans are hoping for improvements at nearly every position. That’s the reality of this team. To feel good, you’ve got to assume that some young guys are going to step up and improve. Jaquiski Tartt? He has to improve his second year! Carlos Hyde? He’s coming off an injury but we saw how good he was! Look how good Blaine Gabbert did at times!

Oct 19, 2014; Denver, CO, USA; San Francisco 49ers tackle Anthony Davis (76) during the game against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports /

Even solid players like Andrew Tiller are part of the assumptions that fans are making to excite themselves for the 49ers’ upcoming season. After seeing Tiller replace the failing Jordan Devey, fans thought he could be the next mauler at guard for the 49ers. He could turn out to be an excellent guard. Or he could’ve been a flash in the pan. Either way, the expectations for him in 2016 are based off of a small sample size of decent play.

That’s what 49ers fans are working with in the upcoming season. Quite simply, we are guessing and hoping that Chip Kelly and his staff just might be able to squeeze some sense of competency out of this roster.

Yes, other teams do the exact same thing. A young receiver seems to blossom over the offseason and suddenly there is some buzz surrounding his performance. Or a lineman steps up to replace a forgotten veteran. But many teams also have established players in key positions.

The Broncos aren’t worrying about where the pass rush will come from in 2016. The Patriots are aware of who the number one cornerback on their defense is. Arizona isn’t worried about who will be the second, third or fourth receiver on the depth chart.

The 49ers, however, are hoping that nearly every player takes a leap forward in 2016. They hope everyone returns healthy, improves with coaching and is prepared to return the team to success. Meanwhile, other teams are addressing a couple key positions and rebuilding depth to make playoff pushes.

Thus, we arrive at the Davis conundrum. Making projections that players are more ready than they might be, despite having no true knowledge of the validity of the claims. Growth happens each year. It would be excellent to see that happen among the 49ers. But to suggest that anything is a foregone conclusion would be inaccurate and naive.

The truth is that Davis could arrive out of shape. Or never arrive at all. The young players could regress. Hyde could spend the second half of the season on injured reserve again. And the 49ers could find themselves looking up at the other teams in the division for much longer than they’d prefer.

The 49ers are not all doom and gloom. Davis could step right back into his starting role in 2016. If anything, I’d prefer that. One less spot on a horrendous offensive line to worry about. But how can general manager Trent Baalke look at any position on this roster and say that he knows exactly what he is getting?

No, I don’t mean the players that will start at any position. I mean the season-long performance that he can expect. Even a veteran like safety Eric Reid has looked inconsistent in his time as a 49er. Linebacker NaVorro Bowman is realistically the only player on defense that can be counted on for any specific sort of success. And that’s assuming his knee holds up the entire season.

On offense, who besides left tackle Joe Staley can be counted on for success? Quite simply, there aren’t any players that help to calm Baalke when assessing the roster.

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The 49ers can’t fix this problem anytime soon. As more and more is written, the team’s makeup will continue to be simply a projection. A hope that the performance in 2016 is some sort of improvement over 2015. That’s all this offseason has been. One hopeful projection after another that maybe someone will take dramatic steps towards a more successful 2016.

Just a few years ago, the 49ers knew exactly what they were getting from key players. Running back Frank Gore was good for over 1,000 rushing yards. Linebackers Bowman and Patrick Willis could each be counted on for over 100 tackles a season. And that’s on the low end. Justin Smith was going to comfortably harass offensive tackles every game.

No need to worry about running behind the left side of the offensive line. Staley and Iupati were one of the best tandems in the league at run-blocking.

The majority of the fanbase, myself included, is guilty of falling into the Davis trap. The false belief that, perhaps, 2015 was just a down year and this roster really isn’t as unsettled as things might appear.

But that takes a whole lot of faith in a whole lot of players. While exciting, that isn’t a great recipe for success. The only way to fix the current conundrum facing the 49ers is to absolutely knock the 2016 NFL draft out of the park. The incoming draft class is full of valuable players that can be found in the first four rounds. Baalke will need to spend every pick making sure that he brings proven players in to compete. If they beat out veterans to start in the offseason, good.

Nobody is guaranteed any position. Davis will have to earn his spot back. Trent Brown will have to outperform him if he wants to start.

Competition, at any position on the roster, only serves to make this team better at a much faster rate. As fans we can continue to hope that our favorite players improve but we do ourselves a disservice in expecting any particular performance. The unknown, of both the coaching staff and roster, is the greatest weapon to disappoint fans moving forward.

This is not a reload. This is a rebuild. And it will not happen in one season. The 49ers need to be clear that they have less than a handful of players with positions locked up. The rest are up for grabs. May the best players win.

The unwavering hope for the potential of the 49ers in 2016 is a testament to the nickname of this fanbase-Faithful.

The offseason is the perfect arena to begin projecting the improvements of players, the increasing cohesiveness of the roster and the ability to surprise opponents in 2016. But it’s equally as important to temper the expectations that have begun to run rampant in the readiness of the 49ers young players.

The 49ers have a host of issues throughout the roster. Collectively, they all fall under the umbrella of the Anthony Davis conundrum.

Next: 2016 Prospect Watch: Charone Peake

All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and ESPN Statistics unless otherwise indicated. Salary cap figures courtesy of OverTheCap.com unless otherwise indicated.