Way Too Early 2016 Predictions for the San Francisco 49ers and the NFC West
By Peter Panacy
The San Francisco 49ers finished fourth in the vaunted NFC West last season and will look to gain some headway while the Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks and St. Louis Rams try to retain their own prowess. Niner Noise takes a way too early look at how the division may shape up in 2016.
It’s far too early to make any sort of accurate prediction about how the San Francisco 49ers and the rest of the NFC West will shape up in 2016. Free agency, the NFL draft, training camp and a plethora of other factors will inevitably sway and influence what will transpire within the division.
But with all four divisional teams — the 49ers, Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks and St. Louis Rams — gearing up solely for 2016, it’s worth taking a look at what each franchise has on its plate as the months and weeks count down to Week 1 of the upcoming season.
How will the division look when the 2016 season is in the books? Which teams have the best shot to make it to the postseason, and what will each team’s record be after 17 weeks of football?
We’ll try to answer that as best as we can with as much information as we have.
Again, there are far too many factors yet to be determined to make this a completely accurate assessment.
Yet it doesn’t hurt to try.
Keep in mind, the official 2016 schedule hasn’t been released yet. Although each team knows which opponents they’ll play. The NFL’s list of opponents can be found here.
So let’s get to it starting with the division champs.
Arizona Cardinals
2015 Regular-Season Record: 13-3
Notable Free Agents: CB Jerraud Powers, QB Drew Stanton, OG Ted Larsen, RT Bobby Massie, S Rashad Johnson
2016 Opponents:
Home: Arizona Cardinals, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots, New York Jets
Away: Arizona Cardinals, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins
The Cardinals will look to get right back to the NFC Championship game after suffering an embarrassing blowout at the hands of the conference-winning Carolina Panthers. And they may be well equipped enough to do it.
Arizona’s defense, led by talented defenders Calais Campbell, Patrick Peterson, Tyrann Mathieu and Kevin Minter, looks to be just as good in 2016 as they were last season. And it’s a young group as well.
Running back David Johnson also burst on the scene in the second half, which negates the need for the Cardinals to get solid production out of fellow backs Andre Ellington and Chris Johnson (UFA).
But, as is so often the case, the real concern will be whether or not veteran quarterback Carson Palmer can play at the same sort of level he experienced in 2015. The 36-year-old signal-caller isn’t getting any younger, and his health will also be a cause for concern over the course of the year.
The same could be said of veteran wideout Larry Fitzgerald, although he isn’t showing any signs of slowing down just yet. Plus, the Cards have talents at the position with John Brown and Michael Floyd. Both crested 800 receiving yards and six touchdowns during the season.
Arizona has a strength of schedule of 0.531 (h/t SB Nation). That’s pretty tough. And the Cardinals will face nine opponents next season who won at least eight games in 2015.
Still, it’s hard to envision the Cardinals letting up unless Palmer goes down at any point during the season.
Prediction: 11-5, 1st Place in NFC West
Seattle Seahawks
2015 Regular-Season Record: 10-6
Notable Free Agents: LT Russell Okung, DT Brandon Mebane, OLB Bruce Irvin, WR Jermaine Kearse, OG J.R. Sweezy
2016 Opponents:
Home: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins
Away: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, St. Louis Rams, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots, New York Jets
The Seattle Seahawks started off 2015 with a 2-4 record before rolling with eight wins in their final 10 regular-season games. And they came close to staging an incredible comeback against the Panthers in the divisional round of the playoffs.
Seattle’s defense still remains at the heart of the franchise and ranked No. 1 in the NFL with just 277 points allowed.
And its offense, not particularly known for being flashy or potent, actually finished fourth with 423 points. With quarterback Russell Wilson playing as well as he has over his career, it’s hard not to see much of an offensive setback.
Oh, and tight end Jimmy Graham should be coming back in 2016. Although one could argue the Seahawks offense featured less of him and more of wide receiver Doug Baldwin.
Running back Marshawn Lynch has reportedly been leaning towards retirement, which isn’t surprising considering he’ll be 30 years old in April and just how taxing his style of running is on his body. Combine those factors with the abdomen injury suffered in 2015, and the Seahawks may look to a younger back like Thomas Rawls to carry the load.
And some of the Hawks’ pending free agents are pretty notable too. But Seattle is roughly $29 million under the projected salary cap in 2016, so that’s not too big of an issue yet.
Seattle’s strength of schedule next year is 0.543 with eight teams on the schedule boasting eight-plus wins last season.
But the Seahawks also have some considerable travel on the schedule. Three away games on the East Coast, and two in the Central Time Zone, won’t make things all that easy.
The Seahawks will either continue their offensive surge into 2016 or will slowly start to lose their grip within the division. Let’s predict the latter.
Prediction: 9-7, 2nd Place in NFC West
St. Louis Rams
2015 Regular-Season Record: 7-9
Notable Free Agents: DT Nick Fairley, DE William Hayes, S Mark Barron, S Rodney McLeod, CB Trumaine Johnson, CB Janoris Jenkins
2016 Opponents:
Home: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons,Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins
Away: Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Detroit Lions, New England Patriots, New York Jets
The St. Louis Rams’ biggest offseason story may be their upcoming move to Los Angeles, which will put them back in the NFC West literally.
Still, a Jeff Fisher-led team always raises questions and, despite seeming to be perennially on the cusp of being good, the Rams haven’t had a .500-or-better season with Fisher at the helm.
Fisher’s last winning season was way back in 2008 with the Tennessee Titans.
Is quarterback Nick Foles the answer here? It doesn’t seem that way. Foles finished the season with just 11 games under his belt before getting hurt and amassed a lowly passer rating of 69.0. Fellow QBs Case Keenum and Sean Mannion weren’t exactly much better.
So St. Louis could be looking at a quarterback in the draft or free agency this offseason. But that shouldn’t be seen as an immediate fix to the team’s offensive problems.
The Rams finished 29th in the league in total points scored last year (280).
St. Louis will go as far as its defense will carry it — the same story from 2015. Defensive tackle Aaron Donald is a stud without question. But the Rams could possibly lose a number of their veteran defenders to free agency this offseason. So will St. Louis take a hit there?
The Rams have the third-toughest strength of schedule in 2016 with an opponents’ winning percentage of 0.551.
Not easy.
The 2016 Rams are in danger of looking a lot like the 2015 49ers — an inept offense paired with an OK defense that lost a lot of pieces during the offseason.
Their record will likely reflect as much.
Prediction: 6-10, 4th Place in NFC West
San Francisco 49ers
2015 Regular-Season Record: 5-11
Notable Free Agents: WR Anquan Boldin, K Phil Dawson, OG Alex Boone, RB Reggie Bush, NT Ian Williams
2016 Opponents:
Home: Arizona Cardinals, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots, New York Jets
Away: Arizona Cardinals, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins
OK, Niner fans. We’ve gotten to the spot you likely care about the most.
The 49ers have plenty of questions this offseason after a 5-11 finish in 2015 and the firing of former head coach Jim Tomsula.
Under new HC Chip Kelly, San Francisco will be better in 2016. The only question is how much.
Kelly will improve the 49ers’ last-place offense. And he could be the coach to turn around struggling quarterback Colin Kaepernick’s career. San Francisco will need that and plenty more.
Fortunately, the Niners will be blessed with plenty of cap space — potentially well over $50 million. And they’ll have as many as 12 draft picks with which to use.
Key areas of concern are the offensive line, the quarterback position, playmaking receivers and whether or not new defensive coordinator Jim O’Neil will be able to pick up where former DC Eric Mangini left off. San Francisco’s defense is promising, but young and developing.
With as many holes and needed upgrades the 49ers have entering this offseason, it’s impossible to predict a sudden jump in the standings. Arizona and Seattle will still be very good in 2016, and the 49ers have the bonus of playing each team twice during the year.
Tack on contests against the New England Patriots, Panthers and the upward-trending Buffalo Bills, and its easy to see the Niners won’t have the easiest of schedules this year.
In fact, San Francisco’s strength of schedule is tied for toughest in the league with an opponents’ winning percentage of 0.555. Nine of the 49ers opponents won eight or more games in 2015, and the point differential for San Francisco is a whopping 590 — highest out of all 32 teams.
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The optimistic view would have the Niners finishing with a .500-or-better record in 2016. And that would be a notable improvement.
They’ll improve, especially in the statistical realm on offense, but the record won’t totally reflect a drastic change.
Prediction: 7-9, 3rd Place in NFC West
Next: 5 49ers Who Will Benefit Under Chip Kelly
All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated. Supplementary contract information courtesy of Spotrac.com.