2016 NFL Draft: Breaking Down San Francisco 49ers Trade Possibilities

The San Francisco 49ers are poised to enter the 2016 NFL draft with a total of 12 picks. But that number could change based on general manager Trent Baalke’s willingness to move picks and players during the draft. Niner Noise provides some background on this possibility.

The 2016 NFL draft will be a crucial one for the San Francisco 49ers and their general manager Trent Baalke. San Francisco, armed with a total of what will likely be 12 picks, is coming off a 5-11 finish to the 2015 season and has a plethora of needs across the board.

While it’s entirely plausible to see the 49ers stay put at No. 7 in the draft — and in each subsequent round with their own picks — the likelihood of Baalke trading at various points throughout the draft is also very real.

Baalke has a history and a knack for executing such deals, both during the season as well as within the draft itself.

So can we expect more of the same from Baalke and the 49ers when the draft approaches in a few months?

In order to understand this, one needs to look at roughly what it takes to move draft picks. Each pick, whether moved up or down, has a specific value. And that value is fluid despite expert attempts to assign a pick some sort of value.

And then there are the negotiations, which always affect the value of picks on the trade market. A team desperate to move up in the draft to nab “that prospect” may be more willing to part ways with picks in exchange than, let’s say, a team perfectly willing to stay put.

Still, we can make some predictions regarding what Baalke and Co. may do in regards to trades and/or accumulating picks.

Trent Baalke’s Draft-Pick Trade History

Baalke may raise questions among Niners fans regarding his assembly of the current 49ers roster. And he’s often the target of scrutiny regarding the amount of power he may hold within the organization.

But one thing shouldn’t be argued: Baalke is good at stockpiling picks.

He’s done this in a number of ways. Let’s go back to the trade of quarterback Alex Smith to the Kansas City Chiefs early in 2013.

Smith, who lost his starting job to quarterback Colin Kaepernick, was sent off for two draft picks. This trade netted the 49ers a total of five players, in one way or another, as described by Peter King of the MMQB (h/t Kevin Patra of NFL.com):

"The result, first, of the 2013 trade of Smith to Kansas City for a pair of second-round draft picks. The two second-round picks, or their tributaries, were traded a total of five times over the past two drafts, and here’s how it shook out after this year’s draft.Tank Carradine, DE (second round, 2013)Corey Lemonier, LB (third round, 2013)Carlos Hyde, RB (second round, 2014)Chris Borland, LB (third round, 2014)Stevie Johnson, WR (trade for 2015 fourth-round pick)"

Out of that crop, running back Carlos Hyde looks to be of the biggest impact. Defensive end Tank Carradine hasn’t exactly panned out. Linebacker Corey Lemonier has been a bust, and wide receiver Stevie Johnson is no longer with the team. Linebacker Chris Borland could have been an impact player had he not retired after his rookie season.

Still, Baalke turned one player into five with this sole move.

And he also moved up from No. 31 to No. 18 that same year to grab safety Eric Reid. The move cost the 49ers their own first rounder along with a third-round pick.

There were also the flurry of draft-day trades from the 2015 draft. David Neumann of Niners Nation put together a piece back in May describing Baalke’s trade efforts that year.

Baalke made three trades during the 2015 draft and had totaled 21 trades during his tenure with the 49ers, per Neumann.

Oh, and one can add the 2015 trades of former 49ers tight end Vernon Davis, tight end Derek Carrier and punter Andy Lee to the list of transactions which netted additional picks.

Assessing the Value

Again, the value of any pick throughout any given draft will fluctuate.

This is based on a number of factors in addition to the desperation or aggressiveness from a franchise looking to actively move up or down in position.

For example, a strong drat pick — or one heavily loaded with prospects at the top — generally means those picks would carry more value than other years’ selections at the exact same spot. Such may have been the case when the 49ers attempted to land New York Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham back in 2014.

But there are ways to guestimate an approximate value for each pick.

Walter Football put together an excellent resource for determining the value of every selection within the NFL draft. Naturally, the value is highest with the top pick and descends with each subsequent number.

The assigned point system provides an approximation of what a draft-pick trade might entail.

For example, the 49ers own the No. 7 pick in the upcoming 2016 draft. But if San Francisco elected to trade down from that slot to, let’s say, No. 15, the transaction should net the 49ers a second-round pick and likely a sixth, based on the math.

These numbers aren’t locked in stone. The Reid trade-up cost the 49ers their own first- and third-round picks, and the math should have required a bit more.

Value can also go the other way. Don’t get us started about the infamous Niners trade for running back O.J. Simpson in 1978.

That was bad value. Look it up if you disagree.

49ers’ Situation in 2016

It’s no secret San Francisco will need to get the most out of this year’s draft to shore up a roster full of holes and in need of upgrades.

As NFL Films Executive Producer Greg Cosell noted recently on KNBR 680, one can simply “throw a dart” at the 49ers dart board of a roster and, chances are, that position needs help.

Fortunately, San Francisco is in about as good as a situation it can be in ahead of the draft.

The 49ers are set to have a total of 12 picks, per David Fucillo of Niners Nation. Here’s the list:

1. First round: Own pick
2. Second round: Own pick
3. Third round: Own pick
4. Fourth round: Own pick
5. Fourth round: Comp pick (Mike Iupati)
6. Fifth round: Own pick
7. Fifth round: San Diego Chargers (2015 draft-day trade)
8. Fifth round: Comp pick (Perrish Cox)
9. Sixth round: Dallas Cowboys (2015 draft-day trade)
10. Sixth round: Denver Broncos (Vernon Davis trade)
11. Sixth round: Comp pick (Dan Skuta)
12. Sixth round: Comp pick (Frank Gore)

Four of those picks are compensatory, which won’t be officially announced until the NFL owners’ meetings to be held prior to the draft. Compensatory picks weren’t allowed to be used in trades, but ESPN’s Adam Schefter suggested this could change for 2016.

If this does wind up being the case, Baalke will be armed with even more ammunition to move up in varying rounds should he choose to do so.

As things stand, the 49ers are going to be armed with six picks between Rounds 3 through 7 — not bad at all.

But what if Baalke could make some additional moves involving players? Let’s take a look at one remote possibility, suggested by Dylan DeSimone of CSN Authentic:

Trading quarterback Colin Kaepernick to the Cleveland Browns is enticing, especially after they landed Hue Jackson to fill their head coach void. And it may not be pure speculation, according to Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee:

"The Browns now become a possible destination for Colin Kaepernick. Jackson has not been shy about his fondness for the 49ers quarterback in the past, stating that when he was head coach of the Raiders in 2011 the team strongly considered moving up from the second to the first round to draft Kaepernick. He has said he considered Kaepernick the best quarterback in that draft, one in which Cam Newton was selected with the No. 1 overall pick.Jackson reportedly will want to move on from Johnny Manziel, whose off-field escapades have reflected poorly on the Browns."

Very interesting. Will it happen? It’s possible. Anything is in the NFL.

But what should be considered probable is for the 49ers to make some additional moves to either stockpile more picks for 2016 and beyond, or for Baalke to move up and/or down when the draft arrives.

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The history is there. And the 49ers have the ammunition and value.

Most of all, San Francisco has the need.

Next: Analysts' Picks for the 49ers in Round 1 of the 2016 NFL Draft

All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and ESPN.com unless otherwise indicated.