49ers Fantasy Football: High-Risk, High-Reward Targets

I gave up fantasy football years ago. I found myself locked in on my league’s site for hours on end. If you are like I was, you probably do the same. And this time of year is spent accumulating all the research and analysis you can wrap your head around.

During my fantasy tenure, I found the most accurate research tended to come from pundits covering their respective teams and not from league-wide analysts. This meant more research on my part — 32 teams requires a lot of work — but it was worthwhile.

Fantasy drafts are typically won in the mid-to-later rounds, and high-risk moves that result in high rewards typically make the difference between a championship and a last-place finish.

So who are some 49ers players that fall into that high-risk, high-reward category?

Some are safe bets. If you’re planning on drafting running back Carlos Hyde, you have a good shot at ensuring you get some serious fantasy points out of your crop of RBs. A similar thought could describe veteran kicker Phil Dawson and the seemingly endless reliance of the 49ers on field goals.

But let’s dive into some other risky, yet potentially explosive choices from the red and gold.

Quarterback Colin Kaepernick

I doubt you would want quarterback Colin Kaepernick as your primary option at this position unless you are loaded elsewhere across the board. Kaepernick endured his worst season last year after being named the starter in 2012. He had only 19 touchdowns against 10 interceptions and posted an 86.4 passer rating.

But new weapons, like wide receiver Torrey Smith and running back Reggie Bush, could help Kaepernick find his 2012 form once again.

And signs are pointing that the new scheme under offensive coordinator Geep Chryst will allow the 49ers signal-caller utilize more of the read option, which could wind up netting you significant points from his rushing game.

Running Back Reggie Bush

Bush shouldn’t be your premier back. In fact, he’s probably suited best for a backup option or a flex player if your league allows it. And his performance will be entirely based on the 30-year-old veteran’s health and how San Francisco uses him.

He likely won’t see too many carries out of the backfield. But Bush is a viable pass-catching threat out of the backfield — something the 49ers haven’t utilized in some time.

Over his nine-year career, Bush has 3,489 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns. If used properly, Bush could wind up stealing you some points and at a good value.

Wide Receiver Torrey Smith

I’m a little hesitant to suggest Smith will be the impact player many 49ers fans hope him to be. Don’t get me wrong. He provides a major boost to the offense, but these numbers won’t always show up on the stat sheet.

Smith’s best abilities come down the field. Kaepernick has a rocket for an arm, but his accuracy is questionable. Instead, Smith’s deep-threat capability will likely open things up for the 49ers’ crop of other receiving targets like wide receiver Anquan Boldin or tight end Vernon Davis.

As such, Smith will likely have some boom-or-bust games — matchups where he gets you major points or he barely makes a statistical impact at all.

Tight End Vernon Davis

Will Davis return to his Pro Bowl 2013 form when he posted 850 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns? Or was his lackluster 2014 campaign a sign of things to come?

Reaching for the 31-year-old veteran in the later rounds of your draft might be a good idea if you have a solid backup plan in place. Davis’ age and lack of production last season are major concerns here. And the worries surrounding San Francisco’s offense compound the issue.

But Davis does have some things going for him. First, he enters a contract year. 2016 may be the last time Davis cashes in on a big deal.

On top of that, the free-agent signing of Smith should allow Davis to run more of the traditional tight end routes instead of relying on him to be the lone deep threat on offense.

And if the 49ers decide to utilize him in more of an H-back role, the offensive abilities of Davis might surge back to Pro Bowl form.

Wide Receiver Jerome Simpson

Wide receiver Jerome Simpson has zero fantasy value until after he returns from his six-game suspension. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports

I put wide receiver Jerome Simpson on this list as a potential sleeper option for those fantasy players who might be hurting at this position over the course of the season.

Simpson’s six-game suspension diminishes his fantasy value tremendously. But that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t think about him at, or around Week 5 or so.

What makes Simpson enticing is the thought of him being the No. 3 receiving option in the 49ers offense. Should the 49ers go three-wide, Simpson could be the open man if opposing teams are focused on Nos. 1 and 2 wideouts Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith.

Simpson has also looked good in training camp and has showcased his skills to an extent during the preseason.

Again, Simpson would be a desperate move if you needed him.

But what if you did?

49ers Defense/Special Teams

The loss of former defensive coordinator Vic Fangio along with so many noteworthy defensive players makes San Francisco’s defense a questionable selection at best.

Under new DC Eric Mangini, I’d expect the 49ers to blitz more. This should improve San Francisco’s chances to net more than the 35 sacks generated in 2014. And the array of pass-rushers like Darnell Dockett, Aaron Lynch, Tank Carradine and Eli Harold suggest the sack numbers could come from anywhere.

Linebacker Aaron Lynch will be expected to pile on the sack numbers for San Francisco’s defense. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

But increased pressure could exploit holes within the secondary. San Francisco’s cornerbacks are mostly young and inexperienced at the NFL level. Guys like Dontae Johnson, Keith Reaser and Kenneth Acker are still developing.

The defense’s success will rely entirely upon the pass rush and whether or not the secondary can contain opponents’ receivers. If these two elements work out, the 49ers defense may surprise you a bit.

And, if your league rewards such, the special teams unit may get a boost from running back/punt returner Jarryd Hayne and all those return yards we’ve seen in the preseason so far.

Fantasy drafts, and the in-season nature of your team in general, never work out the exact way you intended. Players get hurt while others slump. Proper analysis, depth and hidden-gem picks are going to be what turns you from a chump to a champ.

Don’t avoid these aforementioned guys in your draft.

But make sure you proceed with caution and grab these players with the right pick.

Next: 49ers Fantasy Draft: Who to Draft and Avoid

All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and ESPN.com unless otherwise indicated.

High-Risk, High-Reward 49ers for Your Fantasy Football Draft

By Peter Panacy | Sep 6, 2015

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