Whether you're a fan of divisive (and ridiculously rich) ESPN talking head Stephen A. Smith or not, there's no getting around the fact that the guy knows his stuff.
Well, at least he usually does, that is.
With the start of the 2025 NFL regular season right around the corner, there's naturally been plenty of football talk from the folks on First Take these days. And on Wednesday, one of the topics of conversation was the San Francisco 49ers, specifically whether or not they'll win over or under 10.5 games during the upcoming campaign, a wager currently available on ESPN BET.
Smith opted for the under, as he, like so many others, is concerned about the Niners' injury issues.
"There’s no Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk ain’t coming back until a little bit later on in the season," Smith said. "Durability is an issue, I know this, and as a result of that, I’m not going with 10. They might win 10, but I see a 9-8 or a 10-7 record. I don’t see them winning more than that."
San Francisco fans may not like what Smith had to say, but after a dreadful 6-11 finish a season ago, most would probably welcome a 10-7 finish in 2025, which would likely get head coach Kyle Shanahan's squad back into the playoffs. After all, the Los Angeles Rams won the NFC West with a 10-7 mark last year. But let's get real here. Smith isn't wrong about durability, as the 49ers, who were forced to deal with all sorts of ailments last year, have again been bitten hard by the injury bug this year.
Where Smith was wrong, though, was during his take on running back Christian McCaffrey.
"I love CMC, that’s my man right there, love him to death, but his durability is still a question mark," Smith added. "He’s looked 100 percent in practice and during the preseason, we get all of that, but there’s a reason they went and got Brian Robinson Jr. from Washington because they recognize the fact that you can’t necessarily rely on Christian McCaffrey, who’s missed at least 10 games over the last three consecutive seasons."
Well, that's just not accurate, is it? At least not all of it.
Yes, the Niners did go out and acquire Brian Robinson Jr., who has been the top back for the Washington Commanders for the last three years, as a backup option, which was a smart move. And, yes, McCaffrey is healthy and has looked great in practice. But he didn't play a single snap in the preseason. Smith was probably just lumping practice and preseason together out of habit, but it's still wrong.
But the big gaffe was his statement that CMC has missed at least 10 games in each of the last three seasons, which isn't even close to being accurate.
Yes, McCaffrey was limited to just four games a season ago (actually more like three and a half), as he had to deal with Achilles tendinitis in both legs and then a PCL sprain in his right knee.
But in 2023—you know, the year in which he racked up 2,023 total yards from scrimmage, scored a league-high 21 total touchdowns, won Offensive Player of the Year, and took third in the NFL MVP voting—he sat out just one game. And that was the 49ers' regular-season finale, which had no bearing on their seeding in the playoffs.
And in 2022, the year McCaffrey was traded to San Francisco, he appeared in 17 games between the Niners and the Carolina Panthers. So, we're not sure where Smith got his numbers from. Now, if you go back a few more years, he did only appear in 10 games for the Panthers between the 2020 and 2021 campaigns. So, if Smith is looking for an accurate 10, there it is.
From an overall standpoint, we obviously understand the point he was trying to make, as there's no getting around the fact that McCaffrey has missed 37 of a possible 84 regular-season games over the last five years. So, there naturally should be some concern.
But when you're making $20 million a year, as Stephen A. Smith reportedly does, perhaps having your facts straight when attempting to make an injury argument should be a thing.