As Fox Sports' Tom Brady pointed out in his Week 6 NFL power rankings, the undefeated San Francisco 49ers may be primed to be upset by the 1-3-1 Washington Commanders on Monday Night Football.
The Niners want to do everything in their power to ensure that doesn't happen. Judging by the matchup, pound for pound, it appears as if head coach Kyle Shanahan shouldn't have much to worry about.
Truth be told, San Francisco has every reason to wholly dominate Washington. Head coach Dan Quinn's defense ranks 30th in points allowed, which stands in stark contrast to the stout defenses quarterback Brock Purdy and Co. faced in the previous two weeks, the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks, respectively.
Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels has been banged up, and Quinn's time-management skills were called into question a week ago when Washington tied the New York Giants in embarrassing fashion.
Meanwhile, Shanahan and defensive coordinator Raheem Morris seem to be firing on all the correct cylinders.
Here's why Brady's upset watch ends up being wrong in the biggest of ways.
5 reasons why 49ers dominate Commanders on Monday Night Football
No. 1: 49ers own the red zone
If the 49ers get into the red zone, it's almost a guarantee the trip will end in a touchdown.
As shared by the Associated Press' Josh Dubow, the Niners are finding the end zone on a league-high 87.5 percent of their red-zone trips, while the Commanders own the NFL's worst red-zone defense, surrendering touchdowns here 83.3 percent of the time:
#49ers have scored TDs on a league-best 87.5% of red zone drives headed into Monday's game against the Commanders.
— Josh Dubow (@JoshDubowAP) October 14, 2026
Washington has allowed TDs on a league-worst 83.3% of red zone drives.
It's a classic case of one team's biggest strength versus an opponent's biggest weakness.
Provided San Francisco doesn't commit self-inflicted wounds in the red zone, tallying touchdowns shouldn't be a primetime issue whatsoever.
No. 2: Commanders have been terrible in crunch time
Over the last two weeks, Purdy has come alive in the fourth quarter, delivering clutch performances that ensured the 49ers would beat both Denver and Seattle when it mattered most.
On the flip side, Washington has largely collapsed in the final frame of regulation.
Quinn's defense is allowing opposing quarterbacks to post a whopping 137.2 passer rating in the fourth quarter this season; it's given up six touchdowns against one interception, as well as allowing 9.9 pass yards per attempt—the highest by any quarter, by far.
Purdy, meanwhile, owns a 149.1 fourth-quarter passer rating on the season, his highest out of any quarter this year.
No. 3: George Kittle game loading
Against Seattle, tight end George Kittle was dealing with some sort of illness that limited him to just two catches for 12 yards. Thankfully, wide receiver Mike Evans shouldered the receiving burden with over 100 yards and a score.
Expect Kittle to bounce back nicely, though, as the Commanders haven't exactly defended well against tight ends this season.
To date, Washington has given up 372 receiving yards to tight ends on the year—fourth highest in the league. Its defense has also allowed a whopping seven touchdowns by tight ends, too, and only the Detroit Lions' nine such TDs allowed rank worse.
Kittle may not have a 100-yard performance in prime time, but one might bet he'll carve out a significant chunk of yardage while also finding the end zone at least once.
Maybe twice.
No. 4: Brock Purdy vs. the blitz
Quinn's defense likes to blitz. A lot.
Sure, the Commanders' 37.7 blitz percentage is nowhere close to the Minnesota Vikings' 65.6-percent blitz rate. But Washington ranks No. 2 in sending blitzes, meaning Purdy will be facing an extra rusher roughly a third of all dropbacks.
To date, the MVP candidate is thriving against such pressure.
According to Pro Football Focus, Purdy owns a 135.1 passer rating when facing a blitz, suggesting those extra rushers will actually afford the quarterback ample opportunities to take full advantage.
It might be wiser for Quinn and Co. to dial back the blitzing a bit against Purdy, but the data suggests they won't.
No. 5: Commanders aren't tallying up the sacks
While the Niners haven't boasted a sack-machine of a defense (although they're on pace to be worlds ahead of last year's league-worst tally of 20), the Commanders aren't exactly notching sacks in notable numbers either.
Through five weeks, Washington has just nine, ninth lowest in the league.
True, San Francisco's blockers finally caved and allowed Purdy to be sacked three times against the Seahawks in Week 5. However, surrendering zero sacks over the previous four weeks is still a testament, particularly considering the relatively lackluster pass rushes the 49ers faced.
Washington fits into that lackluster category. The only way Quinn's defense has been able to muster much of any pressure is by blitzing, and as indicated earlier, that plays right into a Purdy strength.
Unless the Commanders somehow figure out how to get pressure with four rushers, Purdy and the Niners shouldn't have to worry too much about quarterback takedowns behind the line of scrimmage on Monday night.
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